Hard Brexit - Vauxhall to leave UK

[BlasterBates]

you sir a cretin of the first water, all calamities that befall us must be due to our frankly moronic decision to leave that fantastic union of our historic enemies in forging a communist style state. Any other explanation is obviously fake news. I am surprised you can tie your shoelaces. see what happens when you let the proles vote.


Love A Bremoaner!

Whilst the wheels haven't yet become detached from the Brexit bandwagon, they are beginning to wobble.

[darmstadt]

Whilst the wheels haven't yet become detached from the Brexit bandwagon, they are beginning to wobble.

Like watching a slow motion car crash...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...om-uk-to-spain

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/20...rant-closures/

[jamesbrown]

The retail sales figures includes on-line sales.

The pound weakened as a result, I wasn't in EURGBP on my demo account but I saw it swing when the figures came out.

Sure, but this was widely interpreted as being exaggerated by rapidly changing shopping behaviour. The November figures were strong.

I rarely (never?) see you posting about good economic numbers, of which there are many recent examples, particularly w/r to industrial and manufacturing production.

The move in Sterling was relatively small, and it was only marginally down on the day. Against the USD, which is admittedly weak, it's approaching 1.4, which is a post-referendum high, and not far from the pre-referendum level.

A credible view is a balanced view.

[BlasterBates]

Sure, but this was widely interpreted as being exaggerated by rapidly changing shopping behaviour. The November figures were strong.

I rarely (never?) see you posting about good economic numbers, of which there are many recent examples, particularly w/r to industrial and manufacturing production.

The move in Sterling was relatively small, and it was only marginally down on the day. Against the USD, which is admittedly weak, it's approaching 1.4, which is a post-referendum high, and not far from the pre-referendum level.

A credible view is a balanced view.

The UK is a service economy, PMI figures showed a slowdown in December. At the moment the rest of the world is booming, and Americans scoff at 2.5% growth whereas 1.5% growth in the UK is seen as a major success Normally with such a booming economy growth should be approaching 3%.

[jamesbrown]

The UK is a service economy, PMI figures showed a slowdown in December. At the moment the rest of the world is booming, and Americans scoff at 2.5% growth whereas 1.5% growth in the UK is seen as a major success Normally with such a booming economy growth should be approaching 3%.

Eh? UK growth is closer to 2%, and the Markit services PMI was 54.2 in December, up on November, squarely in expansionary territory and better than expected. All PMIs are strong, with only construction showing mixed performance.

Despite Brexit. Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Etc.

[BlasterBates]

Eh? UK growth is closer to 2%, and the Markit services PMI was 54.2 in December, up on November, squarely in expansionary territory and better than expected. All PMIs are strong, with only construction showing mixed performance.

Despite Brexit. Brexit hasn’t happened yet. Etc.

Growth last year was 1.7% and slowed down in the latter half. The UK is currently growing around 1.5% and Germany 2.8%, Germany's GDP in the latter half of 2017 was twice that of the UK. If the UK is growing at half the rate as other comparable countries you can guess what will happen in the next global downturn, which I suspect will happen in the next couple of years.

Anecdotal evidence is not good, at Christmas everyone was tightening their belts after no salary increases and surging inflation.

[jamesbrown]

Growth last year was 1.7% and slowed down in the latter half. The UK is currently growing around 1.5% and Germany 2.8%, Germany's GDP in the latter half of 2017 was twice that of the UK. If the UK is growing at half the rate as other comparable countries you can guess what will happen in the next global downturn, which I suspect will happen in the next couple of years.

Anecdotal evidence is not good, at Christmas everyone was tightening their belts after no salary increases and surging inflation.

Again, you're being massively selective with whom you choose to believe, taking the extreme estimates both ways, which is indicative of a certain emotional attachment to failure. Growth in Germany in 2017 was around 2.2%. The NIESR Q4 estimate of growth in the UK is 0.6%. The NIESR estimate for UK growth in 2017 is 1.8%. In other words, roughly 2%, given the revisions/uncertainty. Preliminary (ONS) estimates of UK GDP have a long history of being biased low, as do those by the BoE.

Anecdotal evidence for your desired recession is not good.

[BrilloPad]

A credible view is a balanced view.

The UK is a service economy, PMI figures showed a slowdown in December.

So your advice was taken on board then....

[BlasterBates]

Again, you're being massively selective with whom you choose to believe, taking the extreme estimates both ways, which is indicative of a certain emotional attachment to failure. Growth in Germany in 2017 was around 2.2%. The NIESR Q4 estimate of growth in the UK is 0.6%. The NIESR estimate for UK growth in 2017 is 1.8%. In other words, roughly 2%, given the revisions/uncertainty. Preliminary (ONS) estimates of UK GDP have a long history of being biased low, as do those by the BoE.

Anecdotal evidence for your desired recession is not good.

The figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%

Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018

Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual

Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%

[jamesbrown]

The figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%

Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018

Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual

Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%

Yes, the numbers “speak for themselves”.

UK growth at 1.8% in 2017:

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/gdp-gr...t-2017q4-13185

German growth at 1.8% in 2017:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/DEU



Being selective is easy, especially if you’re a remainer, it seems