Reply to: Hard Brexit - Vauxhall to leave UK

[darmstadt]

"Real" The SB figures are no more "real" than the figures from the ONS, who change methodology as frequently as they measure annualized GDP growth.

They're more real than the ones the Daily Mail/Telegraph/Express report though

[PurpleGorilla]

I agree with you that on 4th quarter figures there are no official figures, so I can post an alternative fact from PWC.

UK annualised growth in Q4 1.2%

Their realistic assessment is 1.5% for next year.

So around the current GDP growth rate of Norway.

The humanity...

[BrilloPad]

I agree with you that on 4th quarter figures there are no official figures, so I can post an alternative fact from PWC.

UK annualised growth in Q4 1.2%

Their realistic assessment is 1.5% for next year.

I was expecting 1000% growth. In Locusts....

[BlasterBates]

"Fact". Bless. Annualized UK GDP growth, as extrapolated from the NIESR Q4 2017 GDP estimate, is 2.4%.

I agree with you that on 4th quarter figures there are no official figures, so I can post an alternative fact from PWC.

UK annualised growth in Q4 1.6%

Their realistic assessment is 1.5% for next year.

[BrilloPad]

and the German latest figures show the third quarter annualised growth at 2.8%

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...les/Q_GDP.html

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Like your AGW posts.....

[PurpleGorilla]

Growth last year was 1.7% and slowed down in the latter half. The UK is currently growing around 1.5% and Germany 2.8%, Germany's GDP in the latter half of 2017 was twice that of the UK. If the UK is growing at half the rate as other comparable countries you can guess what will happen in the next global downturn, which I suspect will happen in the next couple of years.

Anecdotal evidence is not good, at Christmas everyone was tightening their belts after no salary increases and surging inflation.

Do you think the Eurozone has the agility to survive GFC2?

[jamesbrown]

No they don't the figures all come from the respective governments, they vary depending on what quarters you include in the figures.

Fact is current annualised growth in the 3rd quarter for Germany and the UK, ie. the quarter for which the finalised GDP figures exist are 2.8% and 1.7% respectively.

Your IMF figures aren't "wrong" just out of date as earlier in the year both countries were indeed growing at the same rate. The IMF is not the place to get the up to date figures.

"Fact". Bless. Annualized UK GDP growth, as extrapolated from the NIESR Q4 2017 GDP estimate, is 2.4%.

[jamesbrown]

For the real German figures you'll need to wait until February 14th when the Statistisches Bundesamt release them.

"Real" The SB figures are no more "real" than the figures from the ONS, who change methodology as frequently as they measure annualized GDP growth.

[BlasterBates]

Er, yes, precisely . Being selective is easy. The IMF has the GDP figures at 1.5% and 1.8% for the UK and Germany, respectively, in 2017. The figures vary dramatically depending on the source. They’re a mixture of estimates and observations. The revisions are huge, even for years in arrears. The figures are cyclic, globally, regionally, and for specific countries depending on the composition of their economies. German GDP has been around 1.5% for years.

Remainers accept any figures, unquestionably and uncritically, if it allows them to make a point about Brexit, however weak that point may be.

Again, when do you or BB post anything good about the UK? You’ve been completely radicalised by Brexit

No they don't the figures all come from the respective governments, they vary depending on what quarters you include in the figures.

Fact is current annualised growth in the 3rd quarter for Germany and the UK, ie. the quarter for which the finalised GDP figures exist are 2.8% and 1.7% respectively.

Your IMF figures aren't "wrong" just out of date as earlier in the year both countries were indeed growing at the same rate. The IMF is not the place to get the up to date figures.

[darmstadt]

Er, yes, precisely . Being selective is easy. The IMF has the GDP figures at 1.5% and 1.8% for the UK and Germany, respectively, in 2017. The figures vary dramatically depending on the source. They’re a mixture of estimates and observations. The revisions are huge, even for years in arrears. The figures are cyclic, globally, regionally, and for specific countries depending on the composition of their economies. German GDP has been around 1.5% for years.

Remainers accept any figures, unquestionably and uncritically, if it allows them to make a point about Brexit, however weak that point may be.

Again, when do you or BB post anything good about the UK? You’ve been completely radicalised by Brexit

For the real German figures you'll need to wait until February 14th when the Statistisches Bundesamt release them. As for good news, here's some:

https://www.ft.com/content/0e0a77f2-...c-9588e51488a0 - see, less foreigners (which many people voted Brexit for) and that now allows British people to go into work rather than sit around moaning

And look, tourism is up due to Brexit: https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2...exchange-rates although I suspect that they're only buying goods made in their own country: Chinese tourists splash out £29m in UK shops during Golden Week | The Independent

[jamesbrown]

But you're being selective because if you take your second link then the UK is only at 1.5%:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/GBR

Er, yes, precisely . Being selective is easy. The IMF has the GDP figures at 1.5% and 1.8% for the UK and Germany, respectively, in 2017. The figures vary dramatically depending on the source. They’re a mixture of estimates and observations. The revisions are huge, even for years in arrears. The figures are cyclic, globally, regionally, and for specific countries depending on the composition of their economies. German GDP has been around 1.5% for years.

Remainers accept any figures, unquestionably and uncritically, if it allows them to make a point about Brexit, however weak that point may be.

Again, when do you or BB post anything good about the UK? You’ve been completely radicalised by Brexit

[BlasterBates]

But you're being selective because if you take your second link then the UK is only at 1.5%:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/GBR

and the German latest figures show the third quarter annualised growth at 2.8%

https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigu...les/Q_GDP.html

[darmstadt]

Yes, the numbers “speak for themselves”.

UK growth at 1.8% in 2017:

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/gdp-gr...t-2017q4-13185

German growth at 1.8% in 2017:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/DEU



Being selective is easy, especially if you’re a remainer, it seems

But you're being selective because if you take your second link then the UK is only at 1.5%:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/GBR

[jamesbrown]

The figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%

Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018

Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual

Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%

Yes, the numbers “speak for themselves”.

UK growth at 1.8% in 2017:

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/media/gdp-gr...t-2017q4-13185

German growth at 1.8% in 2017:

http://www.imf.org/external/datamapp.../WEOWORLDl/DEU



Being selective is easy, especially if you’re a remainer, it seems

[BlasterBates]

Again, you're being massively selective with whom you choose to believe, taking the extreme estimates both ways, which is indicative of a certain emotional attachment to failure. Growth in Germany in 2017 was around 2.2%. The NIESR Q4 estimate of growth in the UK is 0.6%. The NIESR estimate for UK growth in 2017 is 1.8%. In other words, roughly 2%, given the revisions/uncertainty. Preliminary (ONS) estimates of UK GDP have a long history of being biased low, as do those by the BoE.

Anecdotal evidence for your desired recession is not good.

The figures (not emotions) speak for themselves , the UK is not currently growing around 2%, it has already slowed down to 1.5%

Growth in the UK predicted to be 1.5% in 2018

Germany's annual growth rate is currently running at 2.8% and will average 2.6% in 2018.

https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth-annual

Germany predicted GDP growth in 2018 2.6%