Oh dear: New Election coming soon

[jamesbrown]

No election, not on that issue anyway. I suspect Scotland may end up in a similar kind of half out status as well.

There won't be a half-out status for precisely that reason. London will want it, sasguru will want it, Mandleslime's aunt Martha will want it.

My guess is that the EU has over-briefed to make it more difficult for May to walk. Ultimately, though, she won't agree to anything on which the DUP is not fully signed up, which implies some fudge surrounding the meaning of "regulatory alignment" (much easier to agree than "no regulatory divergence"). This was always going to happen to get through to Phase II, where the real decisions are going to be made about CETA, EEA or WTO. The Irish gov't is basically looking for some face saving measure that doesn't require them to implode the talks at this stage and increase the probability of WTO, which they definitely don't want.

[DaveB]

Understood. But would they go as far as voting with a motion of no-confidence? They really hate Labour.

I am not an expert on this. Just curious......

I think they'd abstain from that but happily vote against them over Brexit and trigger a No Confidence vote subsequently.

[BrilloPad]

The Irish gov't is basically looking for some face saving measure that doesn't require them to implode the talks at this stage and increase the probability of WTO, which they definitely don't want.

I thought the EU held all the cards?

[jamesbrown]

(Source: UK and EU 'appear close to Brexit breakthrough' - BBC News )

I don't even see how that could work, without the SNP kicking off (they'd rather like the same deal as an NI in the single market) and without a return to the troubles?

It won't.

You need to separate briefing from reality, because briefing serves a purpose.

[saptastic]

DUP fear Corbyn more as he was sympathetic to the IRA cause.

[jamesbrown]

There won't be a half-out status for precisely that reason. London will want it, sasguru will want it, Mandleslime's aunt Martha will want it.

My guess is that the EU has over-briefed to make it more difficult for May to walk. Ultimately, though, she won't agree to anything on which the DUP is not fully signed up, which implies some fudge surrounding the meaning of "regulatory alignment" (much easier to agree than "no regulatory divergence"). This was always going to happen to get through to Phase II, where the real decisions are going to be made about CETA, EEA or WTO. The Irish gov't is basically looking for some face saving measure that doesn't require them to implode the talks at this stage and increase the probability of WTO, which they definitely don't want.

Plus, I suspect the "regulatory alignment" will itself emphasize Ireland as a "special case" in the narrowest possible terms (again, something that was always going to happen), in order to retain those aspects that are necessary to preserve the GFA. It should be clear when/if the EU releases their report on what has been agreed.

[BrilloPad]

DUP fear Corbyn more as he was sympathetic to the IRA cause.

Korbyn has supported all sorts of extremist nonsense. Has he changed?

Though I am sure Buckingham Palace will be turned into a drain cover museum after PhilTheGreek and the hangers on are executed....

[BlasterBates]

Nigel Farage sums the deal up nicely:

Farage blasts PM's climbdown on Northern Ireland

[BrilloPad]

Nigel Farage sums the deal up nicely:

Farage blasts PM's climbdown on Northern Ireland

Agreeing with Farage and the Express?

All we need now is blessing from POTUS.

[jamesbrown]

Sounds like this is the relevant text.

In absence of agreed solutions UK will ensure that there is continued regulatory alignment from those rules of internal market and customs union which, now or in the future, support North South co-operation and protection of the Good Friday agreement

If so, this is a million miles away from conceding "no regulatory divergence" in NI or conceding regulatory convergence in the UK more generally.

Again, if true, this is a classic and entirely predictable fudge from all sides.

Now onto the Phase II fun...