Tory Brexit No Deal DOOM™: Labour

[sasguru]

you're assuming that post brexit EU nationals and companies will instantly not want British good or services

for some any tariff or tax will not make a British import viable, for others they still wouldn't be able to get the same product from another supplier at a competitive price so trade continues

same works the opposite way around.

I doubt there are very many products for which Britain is the sole supplier.
In fact I can't think of a single one, apart maybe from some pharma drugs.
There's plenty of competition for the stuff at which we are world class: aero engines etc.
Like I said manufacturing in the Uk is not very extensive.

the EU may want to slap a 10% tariff on JLR cars imported into the EU, how would the German and French car manufacturers feel about a similar 10% tariff applied to their exports and eating into one of their most lucrative markets?

It'll no doubt hurt them, but it'll hurt us more. JLR has built a nice spanking new plant in Slovakia for just this eventuality.
Simply ramp up production there, no doubt several other manufacturers will be in a similar position.
Eventually we'll have no more manufacturing, or even less than we have now, solely catering to the local market.
Even the pro-Leave "Economists for Brexit" Patrick Minford accepts this

the above scenario would apply to a host of industries and once the EU based corporations begin to influence brexit negotiations you'll see the EU's hard ball tactics quickly soften and we'll end up with some form of a mutually beneficial deal, likely to take a lot longer then April 2019 to implement however

Maybe, maybe not.
The German CBI has said the integrity of the single market is more important to them than the short term pain from losing/reducing a market of 60 million. The Germans aren't focused on the short term as we are.

[AtW]

which is why we shouldn't focus our efforts and workforce on making kettles, which is old technology, low margin, and leaves you open to being under cut from a supplier who can produce the same goods for at a much lower cost

I think you may find that almost all manufacturing is low margin.

Services are high margin.

[filthy1980]

[QUOTE=sasguru;2486924] QUOTE]

didn't Mercedes move production to eastern Europe in the early 2000's? they quickly bought it back to Germany as the build quality diminished, eventually they realised that short term cost reductions had an effect on the quality of the product produced and over the longer term affected the bottom line

& JLR have also built production facilities in Brazil and Malaysia, they're future business model is thinking way beyond European markets

and to the contrary I think the remain side is thinking very short term "OMG the £ has devalued"

think 25-50 years down the line - how long can a fractious political union last vs an independent country that can dictate it's own future and have the ability to adjust and pivot where necessary

obviously you need a government capable of such dynamism but that's a different argument

[sasguru]

over the period of a couple of decades I'd happily cut the NHS budget in half

Ther comes a time in any argument with a Brexiter when the contradictions in their argument becomes apparent.
We've reached that point
Do you think Brexiters voted to cut the " cut the NHS budget in half"?
And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, NHS spending will HAVE to increase, relative to the working population.
Who's going to fund it now? No one has a clue.

[WTFH]

I think you may find that almost all manufacturing is low margin.

Services are high margin.

And manufacturing requires a supply chain and standards to be met.

Something I've explained before to some on here, but it's a pointless cause.

[BlasterBates]

which is why we shouldn't focus our efforts and workforce on making kettles, which is old technology, low margin, and leaves you open to being under cut from a supplier who can produce the same goods for at a much lower cost

I mentioned kettles as an example.

Not everything you manufacture will be some high tech piece of equipment that can' be copied like aero engines, there are plenty of small businesses making all sorts of products that are sold elsewhere in the EU.

[sasguru]

didn't Mercedes move production to eastern Europe in the early 2000's? they quickly bought it back to Germany as the build quality diminished, eventually they realised that short term cost reductions had an effect on the quality of the product produced and over the longer term affected the bottom line

There were all sorts of reasons for Mercedes build quality issues at that time, mostly due to the Crysler merger, also yes their SA built cars had problems, also they started to de-engineer their cars to compete at a price at that time.

But at no time was it due to European build quality issues.

Every car company is investing in other countries that have potential, of course, but in the forseeable future the 2 largest markets are the US and the EU. These are simple the 2 richest regions in the world by a fooking large margin.

[filthy1980]

Ther comes a time in any argument with a Brexiter when the contradictions in their argument becomes apparent.
We've reached that point
Do you think Brexiters voted to cut the " cut the NHS budget in half"?
And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, NHS spending will HAVE to increase, relative to the working population.
Who's going to fund it now? No one has a clue.

where's the contradiction?

IF you are going to have a reduction in government revenue then you cut expenditure

but if you actually cut taxes government revenue actually increases, as the cost of avoidance isn't as worth it and it encourages more enterprise

obviously you can't turn the tap off overnight hence I said a couple of decades, then once you've serviced those who have no other means of healthcare or a pension etc, you tell the next generation "from Year X you guys are on you're own" what then happens is a market is created and competition introduced whereby private companies can offer healthcare or pension provisions

a government can then reduce the scope and cost of NHS services to helping only the very needy or to save your life

and the "I don't think that's what Brexiteers voted for" is a strawman argument I know I didn't vote to give the NHS another £350m a week neither did I vote to kick out all the foreigners, there's a much bigger picture at play and a whole myriad of reasons 17m people voted to leave the EU

[sasguru]

where's the contradiction?

IF you are going to have a reduction in government revenue then you cut expenditure

but if you actually cut taxes government revenue actually increases, as the cost of avoidance isn't as worth it and it encourages more enterprise

obviously you can't turn the tap off overnight hence I said a couple of decades, then once you've serviced those who have no other means of healthcare or a pension etc, you tell the next generation "from Year X you guys are on you're own" what then happens is a market is created and competition introduced whereby private companies can offer healthcare or pension provisions

a government can then reduce the scope and cost of NHS services to helping only the very needy or to save your life

and the "I don't think that's what Brexiteers voted for" is a strawman argument I know I didn't vote to give the NHS another £350m a week neither did I vote to kick out all the foreigners, there's a much bigger picture at play and a whole myriad of reasons 17m people voted to leave the EU

You're waffling now.
What you think is irrelevant.
Demographic analysis shows the Brexit demographic as a whole as being (1) older and (2) more poorly educated.
What do you think Brexiters will do to the individual/party who cuts NHS spending in half?
It's not politically doable and you know it.
Cutting NHS spending in half is Brexit pie-in-the sky bollux.

[OwlHoot]

And as AtW has noted, we're tightening immigration which means the population will age faster, ...

Are you really so utterly deluded and brainwashed as to believe that, with the literally millions of immigrants already here all merrily reproducing?

If property prices and taxes (both absurdly high due to immigration) could be reduced, then indigenous people alone would easily also maintain a steady population