Tory Brexit No Deal DOOM™: Labour

[sasguru]

So you're backtracking into waffle, now that your 'mathematical expertise' has been shown up again. Never mind, Brillo.

Binary option indeed.

Either Exeter is a crap institution to study Maths in or Brillo is lying. Or both.

[original PM]

When you say 50-50, do you mean that there are two outcomes, or that these two outcomes have an equal probability of occurring?

There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

[sasguru]

There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

[filthy1980]

"completely free market"

its a free trade zone between 27 member nations, the market outside those is subject to taxes and tariffs, so not a completely free market

[BlasterBates]

You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

Indeed and Ms May let the cat out of the bag when she rejected the Canada deal as a model. The EU is totally inflexible in this regard so effectively if Canada is off the table, it's Switzerland/Norway and that means freedom of movement.

The 60 billion bill is not negotiable and neither is freedom of movement. Having swallowed those two poisoned pills the "reward" will be huge queues of lorries at the border, like you see in Switzerland and banks moving half of their operations to the EU,

That will be the best you can get. Congratulations !



The only hope then is that the UK will be able to cut a fantastic deal with the US and live happily ever after eating chlorinated chickens.

[original PM]

You really are thick as mince. A trait you share with most Brexiters.

Here's a fact:

Any deal done is going to be worse than the current situation, by definition.

So actually we have a continuum:

Current completely free market -> some deal which is worse -> No deal.

If we lump together all the possible deals into the category "some deal which is worse", the probability isn't the same for the 3 options.
For example "Current completely free market" is off the table, probability zero.
I would say that "some deal which is worse" is much higher than "no deal", in spite of the numpties representing us.

But a hit to the economy is virtually certain, since "Current completely free market" is off the table.

From a financial perspective that is possibly true - not definitely as we do not know what the future will hold. We may not get the 'best' deal with the EU (whatever that may be), we may get better deals with trading partners outside the EU.

However the 'deal' is about more than finances from many brexiters point of view.

And that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.

[northernladyuk]

There are two outcomes.

And as you have absolutely no other facts to tell you differently they both have the same probability.

So you think that Outcome A 'no deal' and Outcome B 'deal' both have a one in two probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

You presumably also think that Outcome A 'no deal', Outcome B 'deal with UK in customs union' and Outcome C 'deal with UK not in customs union' all have a one in three probability because there are no other facts to tell us differently.

[WTFH]

Well, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.

[BrilloPad]

Well, apart from making it more difficult for genuine contractors to take contracts in 27 countries, and apart from making it more difficult for manufacturing and supply chain, and apart from it making it more difficult to get low cost labour for harvesting and apart from it reducing the numbers of doctors and nurses available for the NHS and apart from it making European & US travel more difficult than it currently is, and apart from the Ireland question, I mean apart from all of that, there are probably only a few other reasons why Brexit will be bad.

And of course there are no reasons why Brexit would be good.

[BrilloPad]

And that is the challenge - and it comes down to the thread I started a month or so ago which was about ignoring the financial side of things why is brexit going to be negative.

Is you were told at the time, because you are a Brexiter which is inherently evil.

HTH
A Remoaner