A Brexit Thread from Someone who Didn't Vote

[Bean]

If you get democracy, then you would have no objection to a UK referendum on the settlement to leave the EU?

Not a problem.

As long as 'remainers' realise that a 2nd referendum is more likely to end in a 'no-deal' scenario (by rejecting the settlement - we don't go back to the negotiating table)

So the questions are;
Are remainers prepared to risk this? &
Is no-deal better than a bad deal?

[Bean]

Talk us through the logic of that. Why can't people who abstain complain? It's just some bollocks piece of received wisdom that people trot out without thinking about it.

You (matt) can complain, but that doesn't equate to demanding a re-vote just because you (he) & others didn't the first time round!

[Bean]

Home | Plenary | European Parliament

Seriously, if you're not listening to this - you should hear how many MEPs have stated something along the lines of;
"it's not too late to undo this", "stay with us" etc

Democracy... ..they obviously don't get it


I've just heard one saying "independence referendums just cause problems"...... well yes, for the EU and Spain and the UK - but we need to reserve the right to hold them!
(Think it was Luděk NIEDERMAYER)

Just had one saying that referendums and nationalist politicians are "the enemies of the EU"

NlyUK - where's that Lenin image?

Crush the enemies of the EU

[Mordac]

To be fair, Monarch was probably doomed anyway. But the weak pound will have hastened it.

Monarch was entirely self-inflicted, according to well informed accounts. They tried switching to the Easyjet/Ryanair model, and got royally screwed in the process. The blame lies with their management and owners (a private equity company) who got greedy. The idea they could double the size of their fleet in an already highly competitive market was, in hindsight, laughable. But not very funny for the poor sods who paid with their jobs or lost their holidays.

In short, nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, so OP, you know where you can stick your second referendum...

[northernladyuk]

Not a problem.

As long as 'remainers' realise that a 2nd referendum is more likely to end in a 'no-deal' scenario (by rejecting the settlement - we don't go back to the negotiating table)

So the questions are;
Are remainers prepared to risk this? &
Is no-deal better than a bad deal?

One of the options on the table should be to remain in the EU (if that is possible from an EU perspective), if that looks preferable to the electorate to leaving once the settlement in known. The main reason I voted Remain is that there was no definition of what the Leave settlement looked like.

[northernladyuk]

Monarch was entirely self-inflicted, according to well informed accounts. They tried switching to the Easyjet/Ryanair model, and got royally screwed in the process. The blame lies with their management and owners (a private equity company) who got greedy. The idea they could double the size of their fleet in an already highly competitive market was, in hindsight, laughable. But not very funny for the poor sods who paid with their jobs or lost their holidays.

In short, nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, so OP, you know where you can stick your second referendum...

So was the collapse of Monarch nothing to do with an increased cost base, resulting from weak sterling?

What role did Brexit play in Monarch’s failure?
Monarch had been struggling for years. It was kept aloft in 2014 through pay cuts and redundancies when taken over by the investment firm Greybull Capital, but the EU referendum and associated fall in the pound was a hammer blow. The decline in sterling left Monarch paying £50m a year more for its fuel and aircraft – airlines’ biggest costs, paid for in the international market in dollars. Sterling has fallen 10% against dollar since the referendum and more than 12% against the euro. Monarch had also placed an order for Boeing 737 Max planes worth more than $3bn, again to be paid for in dollars.

More broadly, British holidaymakers were deterred from travelling by the weak pound and fares fell. Uncertainty around Brexit, including fundamental questions over whether British carriers will still have the right to operate freely in Europe, is said to have deterred potential buyers from rescuing Monarch.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...apse-explainer

If you dispute the Guardian analysis, please offer your own.

[original PM]

Home | Plenary | European Parliament

Seriously, if you're not listening to this - you should hear how many MEPs have stated something along the lines of;
"it's not too late to undo this", "stay with us" etc

Democracy... ..they obviously don't get it


I've just heard one saying "independence referendums just cause problems"...... well yes, for the EU and Spain and the UK - but we need to reserve the right to hold them!
(Think it was Luděk NIEDERMAYER)

Indeed i am sure many MEP's will look to keep the EU gravy train running as long as possible.

Purely motivated by altruism and not lining their own pockets you understand.

[Bean]

One of the options on the table should be to remain in the EU (if that is possible from an EU perspective),

I've made the IF the proportionate size for you. Surely the EU would have said already if that was an option....

if that looks preferable to the electorate to leaving once the settlement in known.

Same as above - but is no-deal better than a bad deal?

The main reason I voted Remain is that there was no definition of what the Leave settlement looked like.

So, if the UK had voted to remain;

What were our budget contributions going to be for the next 5-50 year? Increasing, Decreasing, the same?
Was there going to be an EU army?
Were we going to retain our veto?
Were we going to be forced into ever-closer union?
Were we going to have to bailout European banks?

Some of the questions above have now been answered by JcJ and the like and no doubt will be steam-rolled through the MEPs, by the largest parties, by way of QVM (Qualified Voting Majority) - but it would be good to ask for what you believed to be the case BEFORE you voted!?

[mattfx]

In short, nothing whatsoever to do with Brexit, so OP, you know where you can stick your second referendum...

If you wish to disagree with well placed financial experts I am not one to judge. However to say Brexit had nothing whatsoever to do with Monarchs collapse is utter rubbish.

They had issues with their business model and yes, they had issues applying for ATOL in prior years. However, they had investors on board and were turning things around. The cost of getting a plane off the ground has gone up exponentially since Brexit, there is absolutely no way anyone can deny that - and for a company already in some financial hot water, that was enough to ensure the planes stopped getting off the ground altogether for Monarch.

[northernladyuk]

Just had one saying that referendums and nationalist politicians are "the enemies of the EU"

NlyUK - where's that Lenin image?

Crush the enemies of the EU

Ah yes. Theresa's New State..