Brexit R.I.P.

[sasguru]

Wouldn't they lose the lot under current arrangements?

It wasn't explicitly stated (or at least got drowned by other stuff).
But the Tories mentioned they were going to do it. Why? I think you need to ask yourself that question ....

[The_Equalizer]

It wasn't explicitly stated (or at least got drowned by other stuff).
But the Tories mentioned they were going to do it. Why? I think you need to ask yourself that question ....

It should have been which was an obvious mistake.

[sal]

So it's down to whether the EU decide on special status or not. CU and SM are hard to comment on given nothing has been decided, but any customs border would require checkpoints. We're not talking armed checkpoints though. Checks for movement of people could be handled at ports and airports a la Calais both into RoI and GB – admittedly you could enter RoI and travel to NI on false pretences.

However, given the political risk attached to any border for FM, the EU already stating that its commitment to peace, massive financial risk to one of its member states and a basic framework in the CTA why wouldn't there be some kind of special set-up purely for RoI/NI?

DUP have declared against any kind of special status for NI as it will alienate it from the rest of the UK, which is their biggest market and they are right. Which leaves RoI to accept similar special status which will in turn alienate it from the rest of the EU which is their biggest market, so I doubt they are going to be happy with that, even if the rest of the EU somehow agrees.

You can't check cargo/goods only at entry points like airports/Ports ala Calais as this will ignore the goods manufactured in RoI that have to be exported to the NI/UK or the one manufactured in NI to be exported to the RoI/EU. And most importantly will ignore the goods that are freely imported to RoI/NI from their own "side" only to move freely across the border.

So you need checks on ALL goods both entering and leaving the Island - not gonna happen, or checks on ALL goods moving across the NI/RoI border - can't happen without proper checkpoints and associated queues - no one wants that.

Any attempt of "soft" border, automation or checks on sample portion of the goods traffic are going to turn the Island into a smuggler's paradise (I envision 10 fold increase in the import of Champagne, Prosecco and German cars to RoI for "domestic" use).

Something has got to give. Since all parties - Ireland, UK and EU are committed to keep the peace on the island, the logical conclusion is that CU and SM are here to stay.

[The_Equalizer]

...Something has got to give. Since all parties - Ireland, UK and EU are committed to keep the peace on the island, the logical conclusion is that CU and SM are here to stay.

Fair enough. So the question is who blinks first?

[VectraMan]

The problem wasn't the UKIP vote, May got it the problem was their own supporters in the centre left them.

The good news, from an anti-brexit perspective, is that the electorate turned away from the ideological fantasy that is Brexit and made it about the things that really matter. That means May (or whoever) can't simply push through Brexit at all costs safe in the knowledge the public are so blinded by Brexit they'll accept anything, but rather the politicians will actually have to deliver on the promises.

The other issue is that a weak government is more prone to being influenced. Every Tory MP now counts, and could theoretically bring down the government, and the business world who want to see a soft Brexit are surely going to be more successful putting pressure on the government. And for all us disagreeing with the damaging direction they're taking there's more to be gained in keeping up the pressure, even if (for the moment anyway) it looks like the opposition would do the same.

And let's not forget: every day that goes by, more Leavers die off, more Remainers come of age.

[sal]

They can handle it same as they do for the massive border around mainland EU. Not like they've put up fences all around that.

Besides there will be an agreement to allow cross border movement of goods and people as part of the UK/EU relationship so nothing to worry about.

The massive border around the mainland EU might not include fences (at least not everywhere), but there are still armed patrols and check points for cargo/passengers checks and often mile long queues of lories.

Cross-border agreement like the CU/SM that the UK is determined to leave?

[AtW]

Something has got to give. Since all parties - Ireland, UK and EU are committed to keep the peace on the island, the logical conclusion is that CU and SM are here to stay.

Tory Govt does not do logical...

[AtW]

The good news, from an anti-brexit perspective, is that the electorate turned away from the ideological fantasy that is Brexit and made it about the things that really matter.

Problem is - those things will be paid by massively increased taxes (on us) and debt (which we'll have to pay).

[motoukenin]

DUP have declared against any kind of special status for NI as it will alienate it from the rest of the UK, which is their biggest market and they are right. Which leaves RoI to accept similar special status which will in turn alienate it from the rest of the EU which is their biggest market, so I doubt they are going to be happy with that, even if the rest of the EU somehow agrees.

You can't check cargo/goods only at entry points like airports/Ports ala Calais as this will ignore the goods manufactured in RoI that have to be exported to the NI/UK or the one manufactured in NI to be exported to the RoI/EU. And most importantly will ignore the goods that are freely imported to RoI/NI from their own "side" only to move freely across the border.

So you need checks on ALL goods both entering and leaving the Island - not gonna happen, or checks on ALL goods moving across the NI/RoI border - can't happen without proper checkpoints and associated queues - no one wants that.

Any attempt of "soft" border, automation or checks on sample portion of the goods traffic are going to turn the Island into a smuggler's paradise (I envision 10 fold increase in the import of Champagne, Prosecco and German cars to RoI for "domestic" use).

Something has got to give. Since all parties - Ireland, UK and EU are committed to keep the peace on the island, the logical conclusion is that CU and SM are here to stay.

They were talking about having a customs check for NI in England, so any goods would need to be exported from England and any goods destined for NI have to come in to England, but I think that was an on going discussion.

[sal]

They were talking about having a customs check for NI in England, so any goods would need to be exported from England and any goods destined for NI have to come in to England, but I think that was an on going discussion.

Who are "they"? What you describe is the so called special status for NI, with one foot in UK and one in EU that (as I already pointed out several times) DUP are strongly against.

And I guess by England you meant Great Britain, there is more to the UK than England and NI...