Jim Mellon - Pro Brexit

[PurpleGorilla]

Listened to Jim Mellon on the Today programme on the 23rd Feb 2016.

I was impressed with his arguments, one to follow if you are pro-BREXIT:

Master Investor | Britain should vote Brexit before the Eurozone meltdown - Master Investor

[BrilloPad]

One day the markets will react negatively, especially given that large parts of their(France and Italy) debt is owed to foreigners.
Interest rates on their government bonds will soar, they will be unable to refinance, and they will have to leave the euro. Or the euro will have to be reformed into two or three blocs.

When this happens – and I am guessing that it will within three years – the crisis will be so huge that Germany and Britain (if we are still in) would have to help out.

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I thought that would happen for Greece in 2012. Then in 2015. But still the Euro rumbles on. Like a cartoon character that runs off a cliff then floats in mid-air.

[The_Equalizer]

One day the markets will react negatively, especially given that large parts of their(France and Italy) debt is owed to foreigners.
Interest rates on their government bonds will soar, they will be unable to refinance, and they will have to leave the euro. Or the euro will have to be reformed into two or three blocs.

When this happens – and I am guessing that it will within three years – the crisis will be so huge that Germany and Britain (if we are still in) would have to help out.

----------------------------
I thought that would happen for Greece in 2012. Then in 2015. But still the Euro rumbles on. Like a cartoon character that runs off a cliff then floats in mid-air.

Never know your luck. Might just find some EU train wreck occurs before 23rd June which secures Brexit. Can't see the British public swallowing an EU related financial mess or flair up of the migration crisis again - not that either won't occur again, but timing is all in this case.

[PurpleGorilla]

Never know your luck. Might just find some EU train wreck occurs before 23rd June which secures Brexit. Can't see the British public swallowing an EU related financial mess or flair up of the migration crisis again - not that either won't occur again, but timing is all in this case.

I think a migrant flare up is quite likely before the vote.

[The_Equalizer]

I think a migrant flare up is quite likely before the vote.

The migration one would be the thing I would put money on swinging it. I wondered if it is pure coincidence that Calais' Jungle is being dismantled to some degree.

[Chuck]

The migration one would be the thing I would put money on swinging it. I wondered if it is pure coincidence that Calais' Jungle is being dismantled to some degree.

The vote is being held early so that it avoids the summer rush of migrants making their way in to Europe. If they held it later in the summer then the news would be full of drownings, traffickers, and migrants causing trouble at border crossings.

[The_Equalizer]

The vote is being held early so that it avoids the summer rush of migrants making their way in to Europe. If they held it later in the summer then the news would be full of drownings, traffickers, and migrants causing trouble at border crossings.

Sneaky monkeys those politicians.

[PurpleGorilla]

The vote is being held early so that it avoids the summer rush of migrants making their way in to Europe. If they held it later in the summer then the news would be full of drownings, traffickers, and migrants causing trouble at border crossings.

Possibly, I think the timing of the vote is more to do with disrupting the Scottish elections, and the supposed disarray of BREXIT campaign groups.

A Eurozone crisis and a migrant crisis both seem very possible before June.

BREXIT baby!

[Old Greg]

Listened to Jim Mellon on the Today programme on the 23rd Feb 2016.

I was impressed with his arguments, one to follow if you are pro-BREXIT:

Master Investor | Britain should vote Brexit before the Eurozone meltdown - Master Investor

Bloody crystal ball!

Britain should vote Brexit before the Eurozone meltdown

By Jim Mellon23 February 2016

In Brussels last week, I was presented with “facts” by an EU official (who presumably believes them) suggesting that Britain was bust, a lagging economy, and poorer than France. As an economist and a businessman with extensive interests in the EU, I know the opposite to be true. The UK is really the only dynamic large economy in Europe, enjoys superior growth, lower unemployment, and has a per capita GDP that is significantly higher than that of France and Italy.

Perhaps more importantly, we should leave the EU because the project itself is failing. France and Italy are in what is known as a debt trap. They cannot grow their nominal GDPs sufficiently fast under almost any circumstances – and certainly not with the constraint of being members of a common monetary policy and currency – to stop their debt piles from growing. One day the markets will react negatively, especially given that large parts of their debt is owed to foreigners. Interest rates on their government bonds will soar, they will be unable to refinance, and they will have to leave the euro. Or the euro will have to be reformed into two or three blocs.

When this happens – and I am guessing that it will within three years – the crisis will be so huge that Germany and Britain (if we are still in) would have to help out. This will be a depression causing event, and in those circumstances we are better off in a comfortably appointed lifeboat in the Channel than in a “solidarity” paymaster role. No wonder President Hollande looks even more terrified than usual. France and Italy are going to sink the euro Titanic.

[scooterscot]

Even while the flames are licking up the Brexiters ankles they'll still be calling for a Euro crisis.

Oh the irony.

Greece & Portugal are doing rather well, in particular Lisbon. The city seems to be attracting a huge number of US migrants

Only 10 years ago the jingoistic leavers were calling for the demise of Europe.



Portugal's Economy Rebounds, Though Problems Persist

The Portuguese economy is resisting the prevailing gloom in Europe.

Activity remained strong, with GDP rising by 0.5% in the first quarter, or 1.8% at an annual rate, compared with 1.2% in the euro zone, forecasts Brussels.


Following the trend of 2018, Portugal's good economic health comes mainly from private consumption fueled by rising wages and employment dynamics. The preliminary data, says the national statistics institute, "reflect a significant acceleration in investment."


The government deficit has fallen from 7.2% of GDP to 0.5% of GDP since 2014, and the unemployment rate from a peak of 17.9% in early 2013, to about 6% currently.


"The tourism sector has been the largest driver of the export recovery in Portugal," Ben Westmore, the head of the Portugal desk in the Economics Department of the OECD, confirmed to VOA.