Share Investment, Discussion & Tips

[DimPrawn]

Diversify, don't pick too many failures (my £10 crystal ball has been invaluable in this aspect), don't pay much in commission, hope your broker doesn't go bankrupt and you are laughing.

I know a few property millionaires, I personally don't know any who have achieved riches via stock picking....

[BlasterBates]

Well, quite. Take 1024 monkeys and train them to toss coins. After every toss, any throwing tails are eliminated. By chance one of the monkeys will throw 10 heads and be hailed as the big swinging dick, the master of the universe coin-tosser (or stock picker).

But he's still just a monkey. Lehmans and Coke are perhaps opposite extremes and its certainly beyond me to spot which of today's choices are going to thrive or fail. Hence: diversification.

Absolutely.

My experience 10-20% of the portflio is completely worthless after 10 years, however 10-20% of the portfolio will be several hundred percent up, and the rest is a mix.

result usually an average return of 8-10%

[pjclarke]

Diversify, don't pick too many failures (my £10 crystal ball has been invaluable in this aspect), don't pay much in commission, hope your broker doesn't go bankrupt and you are laughing.

I know a few property millionaires, I personally don't know any who have achieved riches via stock picking....

I would be a property millionaire if I'd bought my last house in London rather than Derbyshire, hindsight is wonderful, no? ISTR a poster here using his/her maximum ISA allowance, diversified portfolio, reinvested dividends and rolling it up into a 6 figure sum over 20 years or so.

Cash, stocks or property: Which made best returns over past 30 years? | This is Money

The point is to eliminate the need to pick winners [as far as possible], and as the article above illustrates, reinvest those dividends ...

[BlasterBates]

In my view we have a bit of a property bubble, prices will stay high until interest rates go up. I think you need a balance, i.e. stocks and property.

with house prices being so high I would be shifting some assets into the stock market, especially during a correction.

[PurpleGorilla]

In my view we have a bit of a property bubble...

[BlasterBates]

Diversify, don't pick too many failures (my £10 crystal ball has been invaluable in this aspect), don't pay much in commission, hope your broker doesn't go bankrupt and you are laughing.

I know a few property millionaires, I personally don't know any who have achieved riches via stock picking....

Here are my entry points:

Asian crisis 1997
Dot Com crash 2001
Financial Crash 2008
Greece - Athens Stock Exchange 2012
Russian Invasion of the Ukraine - Moscow Stock Exchange 2014

The second great depression 2015 ?? maybe

My motto is "He who dares".

Made a few bob anyway....

[jamesbrown]

In my view we have a bit of a property bubble, prices will stay high until interest rates go up. I think you need a balance, i.e. stocks and property.

with house prices being so high I would be shifting some assets into the stock market, especially during a correction.

Agreed. Anyone that thinks house prices are driven by fundamentals in the short-term (as in, 5-10 years) needs to look at the recent history and how the largest swings are driven by immediate external factors impacting sentiment (whether in propping up the market or causing sentiment to decline). It's ultimately a very sentimental asset class (unfortunately, that's the problem), like many others, and problems often begin in London (even PCL specifically) and propagate outwards. You can't talk about housing starts or immigration or any of the other fundamentals in the short-term beyond how they impact sentiment. These fundamentals only operate beyond the scope of sentiment over very extended periods. Any asset class can defy fundamentals for a significant period of long time.

Thus, anyone speculating in the housing market can be crushed in the same way that anyone speculating in other asset classes can be crushed. Were I a property speculator, I'd also be moving out gradually, not necessarily because I see interest rates rising significantly, but I can see sentiment being heavily dented, and housing is certainly in bubble territory in London and the SE. Property is a good bet long-term, but probably not right now. Could be wrong though. I've been wrong many times in the past, and unless you embrace that ignorance and hedge, you're liable to get burnt. Personally, I don't speculate on property out of principle, but that is arguably quite stupid (and I've been sorely tempted)

[ChimpMaster]

<snip>

Thus, anyone speculating in the housing market can be crushed in the same way that anyone speculating in other asset classes can be crushed. Were I a property speculator, I'd also be moving out gradually, not necessarily because I see interest rates rising significantly, but I can see sentiment being heavily dented, and housing is certainly in bubble territory in London and the SE. Property is a good bet long-term, but probably not right now. Could be wrong though. I've been wrong many times in the past, and unless you embrace that ignorance and hedge, you're liable to get burnt. Personally, I don't speculate on property out of principle, but that is arguably quite stupid (and I've been sorely tempted)

I would agree on the point about speculating, but that is very different from someone who is investing. A lot of recent (past 5 years) entrants into property have perhaps been speculators, borrowing as much as they can and leveraging to the hilt to expand rapidly, on the expectation of continued house price inflation. If they're smart, they will sell part of their portfolio and reduce their debt exposure. If not, then they are at serious risk of going bankrupt.

Then there are those of us who have been investing slowly over the years and aren't over-exposed, and don't always look to price inflation. We invest for income, so the rental aspect is far more important and so we look to buy in areas where rental demand is likely to remain high, even when the market slows. So price falls won't affect us (in that we won't be forced to sell) and in fact price rises have made it difficult for us to buy 'value' drive BTLs now.

As for the stock market, the DOW had a great start to the day, 1000 points down. Pat yourselves on the back if you caught the subsequent 900 point reversal within the first hour.

[MarillionFan]

Ok that's me in for an extra 7.5k - now put in 14k, 500 quid down based on my first foray week before last.

Glencore, BP, Standard Life, GSK and Lloyds

I'll top up more if we continue to slide, otherwise happy to wait.

[lukemg]

That's me in too - 20k over the last week or so. Mostly global index etf's, got individual shares but when I don't see an obvious pick I haven't already got I go global index and wait for time to prove me right....
Got this years pension top-up still sat in company account but deliberately waiting to see which way it jumps before I chuck this in.