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Raffle odds. 10 bought, 400 available. What is 1/x

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    Raffle odds. 10 bought, 400 available. What is 1/x

    I might have over thought this by browsing the web as most of the calcs deal with a raffle with multiple prizes so your odds change every draw but lets say..

    Raffle has 400 tickets. You buy 1 ticket. You've a 1 in 400 chance of winning.
    If you buy 10 do you have a 10 in 400 or 1 in 40 chance of winning or is it more complex than that?

    Have I over thought it and it is as simple as the explaination above?
    'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

    #2
    How many prizes? Just the one?

    If just one prize then each ticket has an independent chance of winning so, yes, 10 in 400 or 1 in 40 as you say.

    Gets a bit more complicated if there's multiple prizes.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by ladymuck View Post
      How many prizes? Just the one?

      If just one prize then each ticket has an independent chance of winning so, yes, 10 in 400 or 1 in 40 as you say.

      Gets a bit more complicated if there's multiple prizes.
      Hmm.. Someone has said that's not the case and come up with some half arsed explaination I don't understand so got myself in knots. Can't find a site explaining this but I expect it's because its so obvious?
      'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

      Comment


        #4
        have you asked your accountant?
        NOOOOO!! - not the Blue wire!!

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by northernladuk View Post
          Hmm.. Someone has said that's not the case and come up with some half arsed explaination I don't understand so got myself in knots. Can't find a site explaining this but I expect it's because its so obvious?
          What was the explanation they gave?

          Comment


            #6
            Is this for t'meat raffle dan t'pub ??
            When freedom comes along, don't PISH in the water supply.....

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by TestMangler View Post
              Is this for t'meat raffle dan t'pub ??
              Or has fallen for one of those "£50 a ticket for a £750k house" scams

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by ladymuck View Post
                Or has fallen for one of those "£50 a ticket for a £750k house" scams
                Nah, he's from Yorkshire, it'll be t'meat raffle.....
                When freedom comes along, don't PISH in the water supply.....

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by ladymuck View Post
                  What was the explanation they gave?
                  So this is from the chatroom but I've read it so many times I've gone word blind.

                  If someone buys 10 of the 420 tickets, they will have a 10 in 420 chance of winning. Which is better than 1 in 420, but is MASSIVELY different to 1 in 42. Having 10 tickets give you just 2.38% of the overall tickets available, it does not mean the odds change as dramatically as you are claiming.

                  To actually have a 1 in 42 chance of winning, you would need to buy 379 tickets. That would mean either one of your 379 tickets or one of the remaining 41 tickets has to be the winner (giving you 1 in 42 chance) because either you OR one of the remaining 41 tickets has to win.

                  If the odds you claim were correct and that was how it worked, you'd only need to buy 70 Lottery tickets to guarantee the first prize!
                  It just looks like gobbledgook to me. You need to buy 379 tickets to have a 1 in 42 chance of winning in a 420 ticket draw.. That's gotta be wrong? Just second guessing myself now. That's all bollox yes?
                  'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by northernladuk View Post
                    So this is from the chatroom but I've read it so many times I've gone word blind.



                    It just looks like gobbledgook to me. You need to buy 379 tickets to have a 1 in 42 chance of winning in a 420 ticket draw.. That's gotta be wrong? Just second guessing myself now. That's all bollox yes?
                    Can't say I get it. Much about stats and odds is counterintuitive though.

                    Comment

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