Reply to: Hmmm. But where is this evidence?

[xoggoth]

To get back to figures, the BBCs economics editor has this to say:

No-one knows. If anyone asks you about the economic costs and benefits of leaving the European Union, that is almost always going to be the best answer.

BBC News - EU costs and benefits: an impossible balancing act

[Doggy Styles]

As above..

[KentPhilip]

So what are their assumptions? I'll start:

1. The EU will make it more difficult for UK companies to trade with them.
   London will make it more difficult for European companies to trade with us, so boosting prospects for home-grown companies
2. Foreign companies will stop operating here because they won't be able to sell into the EU any more.
   British companies will stop operating in the EU, and start operating in the UK, because they won't be able to sell into the UK from abroad.
3. With removal of free movement of labour, the UK will have less people selling their skills into the rest of the EU, and will not benefit from other EU workers coming here.
   With removal of free movement of labour, the UK will have more skilled UK people working inside the UK, and will not have jobs lost to immigrants.
4. With London outside the EU, Frankfurt will take most of the UK's financial services business away.
   With London outside the EU, London will take even more business from Frankfurt, because London will be completely free of the stifling red tape, taxes, and unnecessary financial regulation that the EU engenders.
5. We will lose our EU rebate.
   We won't have to pay £1 billion every 20 days to that bunch of wasters.
6. We will never be allowed to join the Euro.
   hallelujah praise the lord!

As above..

[xoggoth]

That's the first time I've heard Xogg described as "liberal"

Depends how much Vodka I've had.

[BlasterBates]

Are you saying that trade barriers are already preventing the US and Asia exporting to the EU countries?

Do you think that the EU countries will forego their current trade surplus with the UK?

Your argument seems based on calling people names.

says it all really

Are you saying that trade barriers are already preventing the US and Asia exporting to the EU countries?

Yes there are restrictions. There are quotas on cars for example. That´s why they set up manufacturing plants in the UK.

There are different types trade barriers.

The UK will continue to export to the EU, it will become harder and therefore some business will disappear. The question is how much.

[Doggy Styles]

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

Are you saying that trade barriers are already preventing the US and Asia exporting to the EU countries?

Do you think that the EU countries will forego their current trade surplus with the UK?

Your argument seems based on calling people names.

[DodgyAgent]

At least we can leave the EU peacefully unlike other countries subsumed into similar non democratic tyrannies:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungar...lution_of_1956

[DodgyAgent]

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

Maybe, but unless you are going to manufacture in Turkey or Serbia then there are not really any non EU countries that are losing out on manufacturing "for EU markets" so your point is irrelevant. This scare mongering should be ignored. It is perfectly possible (and likely even) for economies to prosper outside of the EU. There are three telling examples of this - Norway, Switzerland and Turkey.

Turn this round and you tell us which countries IN the EU are prosperous.. very few and those that are will be dragged down to solve the problems of Spain, Italy and Greece - not to mention Romania when it joins. Poland if it adopts the Euro (as it fully intends to do) will lose its competitiveness as a low cost manufacturer.

The EU is dead unless it ditches the Euro or becomes a full blown superstate which will of course result in another Soviet Union authoritarian state.

[BlasterBates]

Of course you make an equal assumption that the EU will have any money left to spend buying our goods... Lets not forget that the IMF has just called Spain all but insolvent in recent weeks and that Italy and Portugal is in equally dire tulip.

Like it or lump it if we want to have any future in the current economic situation we had better get our heads around how we can start to sell intelligent stuff to the emerging markets in higher quantities. The hint should be following in Jaguar's footsteps to build factories over in India and China to sell stuf to there home markets.

You are certainly right that the UK needs to develop industries to export to China and India. I wouldn´t write off "the club Med" just yet. I invested in a Greek industrial co. last year and it´s share price has doubled, i.e. the entire company is worth double what it was a year ago; there ´s still money being generated down there.

[bobspud]

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

Of course you make an equal assumption that the EU will have any money left to spend buying our goods... Lets not forget that the IMF has just called Spain all but insolvent in recent weeks and that Italy and Portugal is in equally dire tulip.

Like it or lump it if we want to have any future in the current economic situation we had better get our heads around how we can start to sell intelligent stuff to the emerging markets in higher quantities. The hint should be following in Jaguar's footsteps to build factories over in India and China to sell stuf to there home markets.

[BlasterBates]

Are you suggesting that the EU would put up trade barriers to manufacturers in the UK selling into EU countries?

Of course there are trade barriers it is unavoidable. The UKIP/"swivel eyed Tories" doesn´t want any red tape so we won´t be part of the trading zone, even if it is just additional bureacracy of going outside the EU.

Name me one major manufacturing plant outside the EU that is there specifically to sell foreign goods to the EU?

Of course the UK can develop it´s own industries but you can wave bye bye to the "easy money" EU inward investment.

[Doggy Styles]

Lets put it this way no US or Asian manufacturer has ever invested in a manufacturing plant outside the EU to sell into the EU.

Why would it be any different if the UK left?

Not saying this wouldn´t happen, but you are going to have to come up with some good arguments to tell people why the UK would be unique in this respect.

Are you suggesting that the EU would put up trade barriers to manufacturers in the UK selling into EU countries?

[BlasterBates]

Lets put it this way no US or Asian manufacturer has ever invested in a manufacturing plant outside the EU to sell into the EU.

Why would it be any different if the UK left?

Not saying this wouldn´t happen, but you are going to have to come up with some good arguments to tell people why the UK would be unique in this respect.

[DodgyAgent]

Supposedly we will lose 92bn a year by leaving the EU:

British business: We need to stay in the European Union - or risk losing up to £92bn a year - UK Politics - UK - The Independent

It could be true but I cannot find any studies whatever that quantify the benefit. Knowing what utter nonsense similar studies, like the 2007 Home Office report, on the befits of immigration are, I am highly sceptical of such claims by those with a vested interest. One would imagine that if real evidence existed they would want to publicise it.

Anyone actually got any links to serious impartial studies?

I have just read some of your blogs Xog and I like them. I am puzzled however as to why you are so ungenerous to Thatcher

You say:

"We were not a great Thatcher fan in general although some things she did needed doing"

This for instance was no mean achievement - give me one politician in a democratic country that could have delivered this:

"The main plus was challenging the power of the unions who were turning the British economy into a fossil of its former glory"

And you credit her with the Falklands whilst criticising her for over zealously privatising the CEGB which in your words was "mostly a pretty efficient organisation" in other words a take it or leave it monopoly. You criticise this for allowing the power companies to fall into foreign hands. This was not her doing. It can be argued that it was the ineptitude of following governments to squander the legacy she left.

Churlish indeed. But in keeping with "right on BBC liberalism"

[Doggy Styles]

So what are their assumptions? I'll start:

1. The EU will make it more difficult for UK companies to trade with them.
2. Foreign companies will stop operating here because they won't be able to sell into the EU any more.
3. With removal of free movement of labour, the UK will have less people selling their skills into the rest of the EU, and will not benefit from other EU workers coming here.
4. With London outside the EU, Frankfurt will take most of the UK's financial services business away.
5. We will lose our EU rebate.
6. We will never be allowed to join the Euro.