Reply to: Are we going for a random walk?

[sasguru]

IPCC a few years ago?

Nope.

November 2, 1922 – The Washington Post.


Read http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-conte...ife-PROPER.pdf

and substitute Climate "Science" with economics.

Don't you think it would be better for you to get some discipline, and get some skills so you can get a well-paying contract?
Might also improve your general low level of logic, knowledge and reasoning at the same time.

[DimPrawn]

The Arctic Ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far North as 81 degrees 29 minutes.

Soundings to 3,100 metres show the Gulf Stream still very warm. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have completely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the Eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have so far never ventured so far North, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds. Within a few years it is predicted that, due to the ice melt, the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.

IPCC a few years ago?

Nope.

November 2, 1922 – The Washington Post.


Read http://emilkirkegaard.dk/en/wp-conte...ife-PROPER.pdf

and substitute Climate "Science" with economics.

[BlasterBates]

While you're about with that 3rd rate unemployed musician, BB, I'm raking it in.
But believe what you want, I don't have the time today, got a deadline on.
Sayonara, loser.

All the bogs need to be cleaned by 5 pm, get at it....

[Doggy Styles]

1959

[sasguru]

I think it is pretty obvious sasguru is no statistical guru. He's probably just another unemployed permie wannabe.

While you're about with that 3rd rate unemployed musician, BB, I'm raking it in.
But believe what you want, I don't have the time today, got a deadline on.
Sayonara, loser.

[DimPrawn]

That coming from someone who didn´t know what linear regression is:

http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post1629104

I think it is pretty obvious sasguru is no statistical guru. He's probably just another unemployed permie wannabe.

[BlasterBates]

It's great that your interest in the stock market and GW is making you look at tools to find out what's what.
Now all you have to do is learn the pre-requisite maths (advanced calculus and linear algebra mainly) and then do a course in mathematical statistics (as part of a MSc in Stats usually).
Then we can talk on an equal basis rather than, as now, where I may as well be talking to my 3 year old for all the sense you make.

HTH, BIKIW.

That coming from someone who didn´t know what linear regression is:

http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post1629104

[sasguru]

I enjoy the climate debate at the moment because you see the thing is to justify my case, all I have to do is sit here and say "look out the f****ing window".

Feck me. Your argument is "its cold outside so warming must be wrong".
And then there's ex-poly boy Dim quoting articles he doesn't understand.

You two are either imbeciles or trolls.
Either way, not worth bothering with.

[BlasterBates]

Strange coincidence that as the sun goes quiet the temperatures get progressively colder.

[sasguru]

Thank you for your valuable contribution to this thread.

Thank you.
I'd like to say the same to you, but in all honesty I can't since your contributions have been complete crap.

[BlasterBates]

...and for those that say it´s cold in the Northern Hemisphere because the Arctic is "warm"

[DimPrawn]

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series - K[]rner - 2002 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) - Wiley Online Library

Keywords:

atmospheric temperature;
solar irradiance;
time series;
nonstationarity;
antipersistency

[1] Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

[BlasterBates]

A picture speaks a thousand words:

[DimPrawn]

It's great that your interest in the stock market and GW is making you look at tools to find out what's what.
Now all you have to do is learn the pre-requisite maths (advanced calculus and linear algebra mainly) and then do a course in mathematical statistics (as part of a MSc in Stats usually).
Then we can talk on an equal basis rather than, as now, where I may as well be talking to my 3 year old for all the sense you make.

HTH, BIKIW.

Thank you for your valuable contribution to this thread.

[sasguru]

Over to you pj clarke (and sasguru)

It's great that your interest in the stock market and GW is making you look at tools to find out what's what.
Now all you have to do is learn the pre-requisite maths (advanced calculus and linear algebra mainly) and then do a course in mathematical statistics (as part of a MSc in Stats usually).
Then we can talk on an equal basis rather than, as now, where I may as well be talking to my 3 year old for all the sense you make.

HTH, BIKIW.