Obama has about 80% chance of winning the election ...

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OwlHoot replied

3 November 2012, 08:10
I don't watch news these days - So when will the final result be known?
Leave a comment:
doodab replied

3 November 2012, 08:06
Originally posted by sasguru View Post

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Based on a meta-analyis of the polls with some additional modelling. An interesting approach.

Been reading Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" - very interesting indeed.

That looks like a good one, I might buy that for my kindle.
Leave a comment:
minestrone replied

2 November 2012, 22:27
Today was busy but had a chance to read through the site and quite a good read.

Very interesting is forecasting, wrote a fairly substantial body of code that would screen scrape football results and fixtures then worked out probabilities based on prior results.

Worked quite well but phase 2 was taking the odds and doing arbitrage on the probabilities and picking out sound bets where you could make the most money on.

Not enough hours in the day.
Leave a comment:
OwlHoot replied

2 November 2012, 17:09
Originally posted by minestrone View Post

I want the republicans to win but they have to take the blame for putting an absolute throbber in Romney up this time. Guy is a complete cocksocket.

WHS, although I haven't really been following it.

Didn't Romney write quite a cogent book? If so one can't claim he's thick (unless it was all ghost-written, or a load of bollox).
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Robinho replied

2 November 2012, 16:02
The third guy running Gary Johnson is a pretty good choice. Like a younger less zany Ron Paul.
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minestrone replied

2 November 2012, 15:49
I want the republicans to win but they have to take the blame for putting an absolute throbber in Romney up this time. Guy is a complete cocksocket.
Leave a comment:
sasguru replied

2 November 2012, 15:43
Originally posted by Robinho View Post

They both deserve to lose.

Whatever.
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sasguru replied

2 November 2012, 15:43
Originally posted by NotAllThere View Post

At your service.

I think it's about right.

Ta muchly ...
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Robinho replied

2 November 2012, 15:10
They both deserve to lose.
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NotAllThere replied

2 November 2012, 15:04
Originally posted by sasguru View Post

** SORRY THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN 80% ** Mods can you please change?.

At your service.

I think it's about right.
Leave a comment:
sasguru started a topic Obama has about 80% chance of winning the election ...

2 November 2012, 14:57
Obama has about 80% chance of winning the election ...

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Based on a meta-analyis of the polls with some additional modelling. An interesting approach.

Been reading Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" - very interesting indeed.

Last edited by sasguru; 2 November 2012, 15:43.
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