Originally posted by pacharan
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Previously on "Its no wonder the world's cooling on global warming"
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An interesting comment from Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
Global warming: second thoughts of an environmentalist - TelegraphLast edited by BlasterBates; 19 June 2012, 06:39.
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I do concede xoggoths point about there still could be a warming effect from greenhouse gases even though decreased sunspot activity has led to a global cooling.
This cyclic solar variability yields a climate forcing change of about 0.3 W/m2 between solar maxima and solar minima. (Although solar irradiance of an area perpendicular to the solar beam is about 1366 W/m2, the absorption of solar energy averaged over day and night and the Earth's surface is about 240 W/m2.) Several analyses have extracted empirical global temperature variations of amplitude about 0.1°C associated with the 10-11 year solar cycle, a magnitude consistent with climate model simulations, but this signal is difficult to disentangle from other causes of global temperature change, including unforced chaotic fluctuations.
The solar minimum forcing is thus about 0.15 W/m2 relative to the mean solar forcing. For comparison, the human-made GHG climate forcing is now increasing at a rate of about 0.3 W/m2 per decade (Hansen & Sato 2004). If the sun were to remain "stuck" in its present minimum for several decades, as has been suggested (e.g., Independent story) in analogy to the solar Maunder Minimum of the seventeenth century, that negative forcing would be balanced by a 5-year increase of GHGs. Thus, in the current era of rapidly increasing GHGs, such solar variations cannot have a substantial impact on long-term global warming trends. Furthermore, recent sighting of the first sunspot of reversed polarity (reported Jan. 4 by, e.g., SpaceWeather.com and NOAA) signifies that the ~ 4-year period of increasing solar irradiance is about to get underway.
More recently Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) attempted to remove all short-term variation due to ENSO, solar, volcanic influences etc..
Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/...4022/fulltext/
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Originally posted by Scoobos View PostNah it's not. Greenhouse effect was rebranded global warming and was all due to CFC and the loss of the ozone layer above Australia - climate change is the popular/unpopular CO2 effect.
Just making that statement sounds silly - but I suppose Obfuscation / confusion works ey?
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On no, you wakened the beast
Very good article this by James Delingpole in today's SM.
....there has been no ‘global warming’ since 1998,
Professor Phil Jones – of the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit – conceded in 2010 that there had been no ‘statistically significant warming’ between 1995 and 2009.
In the simplest, human terms, therefore, no one younger than 14 years old has experienced global warming.
Jones: "The key statement here is 'not statistically significant'. It wasn't for these years at the 95% level, but it would have been at the 90% level. If you add the value of 0.52 in for 2010 and look at 1995 to 2010 then the warming is statistically significant at the 95% level."Arctic sea ice is recovering ...
Since then there has been a slight rebound, although last year was within a gnats of 2007. Had Delingpole glanced at the chart for this year, he might have used the word 'crisis' rather than 'recovery'.
And so it goes on. Delingpole's 'converted green', Fritz Varenholt far from being 'Germany’s answer to Jonathon Porritt or George Monbiot is a in fact an employee of energy utility RWE and formerly Shell Oil, he has a PhD in chemistry but no special expertise in climate science. And he's written a book. Whoop-de-do.
No big surprises here, Delingpole admits to never opening a scientific journal, being rather 'an interpreter of interpretations'. A fitting climate science correspondent for the Mail on Sunday you might well think.
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Originally posted by Malcolm Buggeridge View PostI thought climate change was global warming rebranded? All used to be called the greenhouse effect in my day.
Just making that statement sounds silly - but I suppose Obfuscation / confusion works ey?
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There are a load on the hills near us. I actually like them. Each to their own I suppose!
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Originally posted by Malcolm Buggeridge View PostI thought climate change was global warming rebranded? All used to be called the greenhouse effect in my day.
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Originally posted by Scoobos View PostGood report, but again it confuses "Global Warming" which is to do with the old CFC / land warming and 80's/90's schooling - and Climate Change, which is to do with more extreme patterns in weather.
Not jumping on the case on any particular side, but it does grind my gears when people play with this stuff.
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Not jumping on the case on any particular side, but it does grind my gears when people play with this stuff.
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Wonder if the summers were as awful as this during the Maunder Minimum?
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The fact that solar cycles have the major impact does not preclude an additional manmade effect, the problem may come at the next solar peak.
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Its no wonder the world's cooling on global warming
Very good article this by James Delingpole in today's SM.
We are entering a period of ‘weak’ solar cycles, and this decline in activity is expected* to continue until about 2040, by which time – according to some pessimistic predictions – global mean temperatures will have fallen by 2C.
For many of us, in other words, ‘global warming’ is something we will never experience again in our lifetime. From now on we can expect drabber, wetter summers and colder winters.
And as if that weren’t depressing enough, here are our political leaders regulating and carbon taxing our economies as if the non-existent global warming problem was still something to fear.
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