Reply to: How will Cameron go down in history?

[Arturo Bassick]

The problem is that the position Cameron has taken whilst not a rebuttal of Europe, has completely sidelined the UK. This means new Eurozone countries will press ahead. This will create tension as newspapers start launching vitriolic attacks on these new rules, and Eurosceptics will be baying for blood. In other words by exercising his veto Cameron has set a train events in motion over which he has no control whatsoever. The government is now being driven by the Eurosceptics. Hard to see how this won´t lead to bitter fights between the EU and the UK, that will strengthen the Eurosceptics to want to leave the EU. There is already a significant minority of Conservative back benchers who want the UK to leave anyway. I don´t think it will come to that; I think in the end rather like John Major Cameron will be brought down by the "bastards" on the back benches.

I suspect you are right there.

What is annoying about this is that all sides are muddying the waters somewhat. I have posted in other threads about it. The EU and the Euro are 2 different issues. The Euro crisis is not an EU issue. It is wrong of the eurozone countries to be using the EU as a platform to save it. Their meetings and resolutions should be between them and anyone who wants to help and on that score DC was right to say "Non".

[BlasterBates]

BUT the UK does not have to trade with the EU. Lots of the things we do trade are because we are IN the EU. The rules say we have to.
There is very little that we can not manufacture ourselves or source from outside the EU.

Our net contribution of 30 billion pounds a year is not to be sniffed at either. That would be a great boon to our economy and would further weaken the EU.

Leaving the EU COULD be just the thing the UK needs.

All of the above is irrelevant. I do not agree with you or the papers or the politicians who are trying to use DCs decision about the euro as some sort of rebuttal of the EU as a whole.
The UK is not in the euro. It would be completely wrong for the UK to join in a pact to fund and support that currency. It is petulant and arrogant of the Merkosy supporters to suggest otherwise. This new club is outside the EU, though it seems they are going to try and use the EU to fund and support their club.

The problem is that the position Cameron has taken whilst not a rebuttal of Europe, has completely sidelined the UK. This means new Eurozone countries will press ahead. This will create tension as newspapers start launching vitriolic attacks on these new rules, and Eurosceptics will be baying for blood. In other words by exercising his veto Cameron has set a train events in motion over which he has no control whatsoever. The government is now being driven by the Eurosceptics. Hard to see how this won´t lead to bitter fights between the EU and the UK, that will strengthen the Eurosceptics to want to leave the EU. There is already a significant minority of Conservative back benchers who want the UK to leave anyway. I don´t think it will come to that; I think in the end rather like John Major Cameron will be brought down by the "bastards" on the back benches.

[Arturo Bassick]

What I´m pointing out is the relative weakness of the UK with respect to the EU. If the UK goes it alone, it won´t get free access to the EU; it will have to agree to EU rules, just like Switzerland. That may be something that Eurosceptics don´t mind accepting, but in reality, it means the UK accepts EU rules without actually having any influence on how to shape them. Switzerland doesn´t have an opt out on Schengen, it was foisted on them. So don´t assume the EU rules will be harmless from a Eurosceptic point of view. If the UK starts slapping tariffs on EU goods it will cause other UK exports to become more expensive. Much more easy for a company in an EU country to source it´s parts when it has suppliers in 26 countries to choose from. Of course I agree it won´t come to a trade dispute but don´t understimate the strength of the EU when the UK is negotiating it´s "free access" because it won´t be for free.

BUT the UK does not have to trade with the EU. Lots of the things we do trade are because we are IN the EU. The rules say we have to.
There is very little that we can not manufacture ourselves or source from outside the EU.

Our net contribution of 30 billion pounds a year is not to be sniffed at either. That would be a great boon to our economy and would further weaken the EU.

Leaving the EU COULD be just the thing the UK needs.

All of the above is irrelevant. I do not agree with you or the papers or the politicians who are trying to use DCs decision about the euro as some sort of rebuttal of the EU as a whole.
The UK is not in the euro. It would be completely wrong for the UK to join in a pact to fund and support that currency. It is petulant and arrogant of the Merkosy supporters to suggest otherwise. This new club is outside the EU, though it seems they are going to try and use the EU to fund and support their club.

[BlasterBates]

It is a quite stupid thing to suggest that just because one event has taken place it will automatically trigger the worst reaction. It is quite pathetic that you people use this sort of argument to manipulate people. Anyway it is a one sided argument. Britain imports far more from the EU than it exports so slapping tarrifs on everything will mean that the UK will manufacture more of its own products.

What I´m pointing out is the relative weakness of the UK with respect to the EU. If the UK goes it alone, it won´t get free access to the EU; it will have to agree to EU rules, just like Switzerland. That may be something that Eurosceptics don´t mind accepting, but in reality, it means the UK accepts EU rules without actually having any influence on how to shape them. Switzerland doesn´t have an opt out on Schengen, it was foisted on them. So don´t assume the EU rules will be harmless from a Eurosceptic point of view. If the UK starts slapping tariffs on EU goods it will cause other UK exports to become more expensive. Much more easy for a company in an EU country to source it´s parts when it has suppliers in 26 countries to choose from. Of course I agree it won´t come to a trade dispute but don´t understimate the strength of the EU when the UK is negotiating it´s "free access" because it won´t be for free.

[BlasterBates]

Assuming all 27 countries engage in this trade war. Which they won't. Half are barely hanging on as it is, even 2% is a big deal.

I´m pointing out that it is not an even relationship as everyone tries to make out. If the UK is cut out of the decision making and the Eurozone introduces new rules that would adversely affect the City, i.e. that Eurozone banks are forced to move some of their business out of it, then the UK is in a weak position. What are they going to do? answer they´ll make a lot of noise and threaten to leave the EU, and I imagine no-one will stop them. Probably at that point the UK will cave in with great loss of face to Cameron. In any case if they left the EU that would probably result in more of the business leaving the City.

[DodgyAgent]

Germany+France were pissed off at British position for a very very long time.

I am actually very much pro-EU referendum here - not sure what I would vote for, but I know one simple thing - in a team one has to be a team player or get out of the team.

Fair enough if only it were that simple. Cameron is in several different teams

[AtW]

It is a quite stupid thing to suggest that just because one event has taken place it will automatically trigger the worst reaction.

Germany+France were pissed off at British position for a very very long time.

I am actually very much pro-EU referendum here - not sure what I would vote for, but I know one simple thing - in a team one has to be a team player or get out of the team.

[d000hg]

Don´t forget the UK does more than half it´s trade with the EU, but in any single EU country the amount of trade that country does is minimal. For most countries it´s probably approximately the same, but that 50% of trade is spread over 27 countries. There is a big difference between the importance of the UK to each individual country and the importance of the EU to the UK. For example Germany does about 4.5% of it´s trade with the UK.

German Business Portal - Foreign Trade Statistics

Now just imagine that there is a trade war and the UK loses half of it´s export trade. That would mean 25% of it´s trade would be lost. For the UK that would be economic disaster. For Germany it would lose just over 2% of it´s foreign trade, a slight recession at best.

Assuming all 27 countries engage in this trade war. Which they won't. Half are barely hanging on as it is, even 2% is a big deal.

[DodgyAgent]

Don´t forget the UK does more than half it´s trade with the EU, but in any single EU country the amount of trade that country does is minimal. For most countries it´s probably approximately the same, but that 50% of trade is spread over 27 countries. There is a big difference between the importance of the UK to each individual country and the importance of the EU to the UK. For example Germany does about 4.5% of it´s trade with the UK.

German Business Portal - Foreign Trade Statistics

Now just imagine that there is a trade war and the UK loses half of it´s export trade. That would mean 25% of it´s trade would be lost. For the UK that would be economic disaster. For Germany it would lose just over 2% of it´s foreign trade, a slight recession at best.

Make no mistake if the UK looks for a fight it will lose plain and simple.

It is a quite stupid thing to suggest that just because one event has taken place it will automatically trigger the worst reaction. It is quite pathetic that you people use this sort of argument to manipulate people. Anyway it is a one sided argument. Britain imports far more from the EU than it exports so slapping tarrifs on everything will mean that the UK will manufacture more of its own products.

[AtW]

Does anyone really know what the situation will be (as regards the Euro) in 3 weeks, never mind 3 months or 3 years?

I do - it will be fine.

[BlasterBates]

Don´t forget the UK does more than half it´s trade with the EU, but in any single EU country the amount of trade that country does is minimal. For most countries it´s probably approximately the same, but that 50% of trade is spread over 27 countries. There is a big difference between the importance of the UK to each individual country and the importance of the EU to the UK. For example Germany does about 4.5% of it´s trade with the UK.

German Business Portal - Foreign Trade Statistics

Now just imagine that there is a trade war and the UK loses half of it´s export trade. That would mean 25% of it´s trade would be lost. For the UK that would be economic disaster. For Germany it would lose just over 2% of it´s foreign trade, a slight recession at best.

Make no mistake if the UK looks for a fight it will lose plain and simple.

[Spacecadet]

From time to time they get it right

Like a stopped clock?

[MrMark]

Does anyone really know what the situation will be (as regards the Euro) in 3 weeks, never mind 3 months or 3 years?

We should learn to trust our beloved leader - he knows what he's doing. We hope.

[scooterscot]

I wouldn't believe everythng the Guardian says

From time to time they get it right, wonder if they have a final issue of NOTW hanging in the newsroom...

[Ruprect]

If Cameron was going to make a stand it should have been at the point where the UK was facing new regulations. If he´d done it at that point he would have garnered a lot of support. Does the City think Cameron played a blinder:

not really

In the end whatever regulations come along they´ll affect the UK whether they like it or not, but by being sidelined means the UK now has no influence at all. It isn´t just a case that all the City´s business is in the UK they do a lot of business in Europe. That will inevitably be affected by new regulation.

I wouldn't believe everythng the Guardian says