Reply to: Global Warming

[hyperD]

Well one thing's for certain: when all this nonsense ends and those eco-funds vanish, governments around the world will not be removing the additional green taxes they have imposed on us.

They will simply be renamed "Gullibility Insurance Taxes".

[EternalOptimist]

The last ice age ended 7000 years ago or more. So I hardly think a 0.25deg rise in 30 years can be attributed to steady warming since then.

exactly the same mistake as the Warmists make. Everything of importance must have happened in the last 30 years. Its such an ego-centric view that its quite staggering.

we should be looking at these things over epochs, not human lifespans. How much co2 was in the atmosphere a million years ago ? why didnt the earth catch fire

[OwlHoot]

Even so, what is causing the slow rise in average temperatures ?
is a trace plant food gas in the atmosphere
or the fact that have left an ice age and are warming up

The last ice age ended 7000 years ago or more. So I hardly think a 0.25deg rise in 30 years can be attributed to steady warming since then.

[d000hg]

If you draw a trendline through all the significant local minima in that graph it's still going up though.

[BlasterBates]

We had the same thing in the 30's a huge number of people were taken in faschism, and then communism. The new fad is environmentalism.

I put it down to people needing a figurehead and some arbitary rules they can follow without question, I suppose like a new religion really.

[DimPrawn]

And Yes ! the future day psychoanalysts will look at the two stories, and they will note a common theme of self hate. They will ponder - what is it that drives people to believe the wild and destructive flights of fancy?
they will wonder why the men of reason let it take hold and flourish. why noone stood up and said

this is bollocks

Why would anyone want to do that?

[EternalOptimist]

Burn him! Heretic!

And Yes ! the future day psychoanalysts will look at the two stories, and they will note a common theme of self hate. They will ponder - what is it that drives people to believe the wild and destructive flights of fancy?
they will wonder why the men of reason let it take hold and flourish. why noone stood up and said

this is bollocks

[DimPrawn]

I predict that the climate will bump around as it always has done. Human understanding of the many thousands of variables that influence climate will increase, and the main ones will be identified and singled out. After they have been rated and weighted it will be seen that one of the least important variables is the tiny proportion of a tiny proportion of the atmospheric mix, man made co2.
And people will look at the story of CAGW in the same book that they look at the story of the Salem witch trials

Burn him! Heretic!

[EternalOptimist]

Are there any predictions from the non AGW camp that would let us ascertain who's theories predict reality the best?

I predict that the climate will bump around as it always has done. Human understanding of the many thousands of variables that influence climate will increase, and the main ones will be identified and singled out. After they have been rated and weighted it will be seen that one of the least important variables is the tiny proportion of a tiny proportion of the atmospheric mix, man made co2.
And people will look at the story of CAGW in the same book that they look at the story of the Salem witch trials

[doodab]

Indeed the prediction has been duly noted. We will review this again in 2012-2014.

Are there any predictions from the non AGW camp that would let us ascertain who's theories predict reality the best?

[DimPrawn]

Indeed the prediction has been duly noted. We will review this again in 2012-2014.

If we haven't been bankrupted by Carbon taxes and have electricity, computers and the like, yes.

[BlasterBates]

Weather.

In the absence of a external forcing from the enhanced greenhouse effect would the global mean temp be exactly the same each month - a horizontal straight line? No. It varies month on month due to stochastic internal variability [aka weather]. In the presence of a forcing Who then would expect a positively sloping straight line - with every month a new record? Only a statistical ignoramus.

Coolest March in a decade, huh? Last November was the warmest in the whole record. The drop is due to La Nina, which drags cooler water to the surface. The UAH is a satellite based record so measures (actually estimates) the temperature of the lower troposphere rather than the surface, the troposhere being more sensitive to oceanic effects than the surface so it tends to cool more in La Nina, (and warm more during El Nino). In fact this minimum was predicted in the academic literature:



Hope this helps.

Indeed the prediction has been duly noted. We will review this again in 2012-2014.

[EternalOptimist]

I don't recall seeing any climate change accounts, even the most alarmist, that attach undue significance to a positive rate of change in global temperatures, for the simple reason that a steady rise (if any) is quite alarming enough on its own.

That said though, a steady rise if it continued would inevitably lead to a cascade, or positive feedback, when vast amounts of methane are released by melting Siberian permafrost, and methane hydrates on the sea bed, and melting glaciers expose more dark rock to absorb the Sun's heat instead of reflecting it back into space. So, yes, one can expect accelerated warming eventually.

Even so, what is causing the slow rise in average temperatures ?
is a trace plant food gas in the atmosphere
or the fact that have left an ice age and are warming up

[TimberWolf]

I'm sure everything will be fine as long as we keep breeding like mad.

[OwlHoot]

I don't recall seeing any climate change accounts, even the most alarmist, that attach undue significance to a positive rate of change in global temperatures, for the simple reason that a steady rise (if any) is quite alarming enough on its own.

That said though, a steady rise if it continued would inevitably lead to a cascade, or positive feedback, when vast amounts of methane are released by melting Siberian permafrost, and methane hydrates on the sea bed, and melting glaciers expose more dark rock to absorb the Sun's heat instead of reflecting it back into space. So, yes, one can expect accelerated warming eventually.