What will swing this election?

[Peoplesoft bloke]

What will swing this election?

Good question, well asked. Hard to see really - sleaze has affected all parties with the expenses issue, although arguably Cameron has dealt with it better.

Many people seem to think that no one party is addressing the issues they want sorted. There isn't a simple right/left divide any more - the Tories are having a go at Gordo for a rise in the gap between rich and poor - but since when did old-style Tories give a tulip about that?

As someone else pointed out, the Iraq war is pretty unpopular, but the Tories voted for it too.

As for the economy - both main parties have now proved they can screw ordinary people repeatedly.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

I can't believe anyone has picked up this mantle though. There are two seats up here going begging to the first major party who will tackle this, maybe not to the level, but to take some positive action. Seems an election winner to me yet they try and convince us by giving a married couple £150 a year.. whoop de woooooo.

Part of the reason is that it's not an easy issue - how could you actually "reverse" immigration? I'm not saying you should (or shouldn't) but it is a very complex issue, given the involvement of the EU and our wider responsibilities in the world.

[SuperZ]

Immigrants, civil servants and those on benefits (especially single mums) and fools who believe the future is completely rosey will win the election for Labour again
Personally I couldn't believe it when Blair and Bush and his bandits in the US got back in last time

[northernladuk]

The Conservatives will win by a landslide if Cameron would say, "We will reverse immigration".

I can't believe anyone has picked up this mantle though. There are two seats up here going begging to the first major party who will tackle this, maybe not to the level, but to take some positive action. Seems an election winner to me yet they try and convince us by giving a married couple £150 a year.. whoop de woooooo.

[d000hg]

Well what issues have we had...

- Expenses... just screwed everyone
- Iraq... didn't Tories support Labour in the decision?
- Recession... fixed/forgotten.

[VectraMan]

Which election was decided by that one picture of Michael Foot and his dog? I forget.

[HairyArsedBloke]

I think that Labour will stay in power, too many civil servants are sh!t scared about losing their jobs.

I think so too. However, they are in for a nasty shock when it happens anyway.

If anything so far that has boosted the Conservatives it has to be that Quarto poster. It showed just out of touch the Labour party is. The Conservatives will win by a landslide if Cameron would say, "We will reverse immigration".

[Churchill]

I think that Labour will stay in power, too many civil servants are sh!t scared about losing their jobs.

[original PM]

2 words.
David
Cameron

Or try
Posh
Boy

Yeah he may be no better - but I am bored of Winky Mcfu<nutt and his annoying face

so time for a change!

[Tarquin Farquhar]

I think it is just that people really really do not like or trust Gordon Brown

2 words.
David
Cameron

Or try
Posh
Boy

[northernladuk]

It is all about perception... The current party will get generally less and less popular over time until there is a witch hunt to get them out based on generalistic issues which to be fair would apply to any political party, it is just they current party in power get it in the neck.

We cry out for change, get it and sit there expectantly for a few years until we get disillusioned and start blaming them current party in power for stuff that applies to all parties and the cycle continues IMO.

[original PM]

I think it is just that people really really do not like or trust Gordon Brown

[threaded]

I believe there will be a very low turnout, so it'll be won by the party with the least apathetic voters.

[Doggy Styles]

What will be the most significant vote-swinging announcement or event?

For example:

• The 1979 election was largely down to the winter of discontent
• 1983 was the Falklands, and Labour's very left-wing manifesto
• 1987 was possibly the Tory tax cuts
• 1992 was Kinnock's lap of honour before the election
• 1997 was the new level of spin, and the hopelessly divided and sleazy Tories

Or will this one just go down to the drip-drip-drip of minor pluses, minuses and embarrassments adding up in the minds of voters?