Reply to: Life after contracting

[expat]

It started as Life After Contracting, then it degenerated into making money out of property. Sheesh.

[Fred Bloggs]

Is it right time to buy commerical property or wait for further fall

Good question, the sector has had mega falls already. Usually, by the time folk agree and say invest, you've already missed most of the surge back upwards. Has happened to me with gold, BRICs and oil this last 9 months. I was too early into a corporate bonds fund, but it's showing a fair profit now after a nerve jangling dip on the way. I was a bit late into a general commodities fund too, but that's showing a nice profit none the less over the last 4 months.

[Andy2]

I'm mulling over an investment into a commercial property trust. I usualy miss early phase rallies by being too cautious, but I think on a medium term view, commercial property is a steal right now.

Is it right time to buy commerical property or wait for further fall

[Fred Bloggs]

come rain or shine, recession or boom, folks will always need somewhere to live

commercial property on the other hand ?

Milan.

Good question, but if folks need somewhere to live then they need somewhere to buy stuff from too? And somewhere to work or else they will have no house to live in anyway?

[milanbenes]

come rain or shine, recession or boom, folks will always need somewhere to live

commercial property on the other hand ?

Milan.

[Fred Bloggs]

I'm mulling over an investment into a commercial property trust. I usualy miss early phase rallies by being too cautious, but I think on a medium term view, commercial property is a steal right now.

[Fred Bloggs]

"The property market is full of false beliefs. It is, for example, widely argued that house prices will hold their value because, as Mark Twain noted, they don't make land anymore. But in Japan, where land is even scarcer than in Britain, house prices fell by 68pc in real terms between 1991 and 2006. Anyone who sees their home as their pension could be in for a rude shock."

Its a good point. Though its hard to compare ASia/UK as very different spending cultures.

Food for thought though. UK houses are still overpriced on long term measures. And the economy is under unprecedented negative pressure. I generally rate Stevenson pretty highly. His commentary on the whole, though generally bullish by nature, does tend to have a common sense streak running through it. I read him every week.

[Andy2]

If BTL is too much hassle to maintain , why not invest in property investment trusts where the rent collected is distributed to shareholders.

[AlfredJPruffock]

"The property market is full of false beliefs. It is, for example, widely argued that house prices will hold their value because, as Mark Twain noted, they don't make land anymore. But in Japan, where land is even scarcer than in Britain, house prices fell by 68pc in real terms between 1991 and 2006. Anyone who sees their home as their pension could be in for a rude shock."

Its a good point. Though its hard to compare ASia/UK as very different spending cultures.

I recall in Tokyo in some areas it was almost a whopping 90 per cent depreciation from 1990.

[BrilloPad]

An interesting read from Tom Stevenson who I rate very highly as an economic commentator-

Tom Stevenson Comment.

"The property market is full of false beliefs. It is, for example, widely argued that house prices will hold their value because, as Mark Twain noted, they don't make land anymore. But in Japan, where land is even scarcer than in Britain, house prices fell by 68pc in real terms between 1991 and 2006. Anyone who sees their home as their pension could be in for a rude shock."

Its a good point. Though its hard to compare ASia/UK as very different spending cultures.

[AlfredJPruffock]

The root of your problems vanish when you cherish others.

I would like to say that is probably one of the most practical and best approaches to living your life - for the Ego can never find security and I care not how much you have in the Bank , pension schemes etc - you will never reach that security you seek.

On the contrary - as the Chinese say - 'he would accumlate much wealth - he has much to lose .'

If you dont help and cherish others you will remain trapped in the hellish confines of your insecure petty shoddy ego.

Well said Threaded.

[ChimpMaster]

Have you factored in the cost of maintenance,[snip]
PZZ

Yes.

[pzz76077]

Interest rates? By which you mean savings interest rates? Which are what - 1%, 2% at this time? Or 4% if you're willing to fix a lump sum for 5 years? From my example above, which is from real life experience, that amounts to a 5.6% yield. In fact, you can get more now - 7% is easy, and by easy I mean buy the house and give it on a contract to the local council.

I'm not saying this is the right time (in fact I'm stopping my wife from buying another BTL at this time), but you need to view property over the long term and not as a 'decade' long event.

Have you factored in the cost of maintenance, effort, changes in legislation (eg a couple of % tax on BTL's) and a degree of unlet time over the 30-40 years of your retirement. These are costs likely to be substantial and after all, a house starts to decay from the day it was built and the older it is the more maintenance it needs to retain its value.

PZZ

[ChimpMaster]

You've been fooled by 10 years of ever increasing house prices.

BTL only makes sense if yield > ~1.5 * interest rates. Which hasn't been the case in London/South East for most of this decade.

BTL can make sense, but like lots of things, timing is everything.

Interest rates? By which you mean savings interest rates? Which are what - 1%, 2% at this time? Or 4% if you're willing to fix a lump sum for 5 years? From my example above, which is from real life experience, that amounts to a 5.6% yield. In fact, you can get more now - 7% is easy, and by easy I mean buy the house and give it on a contract to the local council.

I'm not saying this is the right time (in fact I'm stopping my wife from buying another BTL at this time), but you need to view property over the long term and not as a 'decade' long event.

[Fred Bloggs]

Btl?

An interesting read from Tom Stevenson who I rate very highly as an economic commentator-

Tom Stevenson Comment.