Reply to: Mortgage approvals strong in July

[Troll]

do people think that a >£200k mortgage is way above the norm?

I'm looking to move from my first place to a 3 bed house and it's quite a sizeable jump.

The jump from a 3 bed semi to 4 bed detached is imho the biggest jump

If you are going to a 3 bed detached I would suggest you think again

[thunderlizard]

How true

Nobody knows why Elvis threw it all away
Nobody knows what Ruby had to hide
Nobody knows why some of us get broken hearts
And some of us find a world that's clear and bright
You could be packed up and ready
Knowing exactly where to go
How come you miss the connection?
No use in asking...the answer is nobody knows

[sasguru]

Fact is no-one knows, least of all the so-called economic "experts". Use your common sense.

[thunderlizard]

Well that one does at least have some nice graphs. I admit housing is a more speculative market than it was 20 years ago, but it's still demographically-driven in a way that market data charts don't account for.

I still think it's a new spin on an old story. For the past 7 years' worth of doommongering:
http://news.google.co.uk/archivesear...Archives&hl=en

[BlasterBates]

Read the more up-to-date expert opinion

more up-to-date opinion

[thunderlizard]

I would read this expert advice first:

Expert advice

...and then draw your own opinions.

"There is a one in five chance of a UK house price crash over the next two years, a leading economist warned."
...
"He said prices could fall by as much as 10% in the 18 months from the beginning of next year."

A 1 in 5 chance of a 10% drop? Excuse me if I don't wet myself in sheer panic.

[bobhope]

The house price saga needs a churchill quote:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

The fun should start soon.

[BlasterBates]

That prediction was before the credit crunch, i.e. credit being supplied at July's rates. So it is possible that the odds worsened.

A more up-to-date expert opinion

[Bagpuss]

'Clear signs' of housing slowdown


Responding to the recent global stock market turmoil, the Nationwide said UK house prices "are unlikely to be significantly hit" in the short term.

But it cautioned that the "dependence of the UK economy on financial services poses a longer term risk" if market turbulence becomes a lasting problem.

The Nationwide added that it still expected house price growth for 2007 as a whole to slow to between 5% and 8%.

It sees three main reasons for this - weaker affordability as house prices continue to grow more quickly than earnings, the effect of higher interest rates and inflation, and thirdly, the expectation of lower prices.

"While it has taken some time for these factors to bite, there are now clearer signs of slower demand in the market reflected in the collapse in new buyer enquiries," said the building society.

The best hype the Nationwide can come up with this month is a collapse in demand.

Oh Dear!

[oracleslave]

I would read this expert advice first:

Expert advice

...and then draw your own opinions.

1 in 5. Not bad odds then...beats playing poker for a living.

[BlasterBates]

I would read this expert advice first:

Expert advice

...and then draw your own opinions.

[oracleslave]

I'm impressed. Good money being an Oracle slave then I assume.

Or is it BTL and all that malarky?

Have a BTL as well but not the one I was referring to.

[beaker]

A friend of mine bought a dodgy flat in North London for £180K last July. He just sold it for £275K and bought a house in the country.

Now I'm wondering whether to buy a flat for £250K, wondering if its worth it if I only stay in it for a few years.

[oracleslave]

Ouch! I wouldn't be able to sleep nights. Does your partner also work?

Not for the last year or so.

[shaunbhoy]

good advice, thanks!

You are lucky that there are so many "property experts" on one site Craig. Some of them are so intuitive they were predicting the forthcoming "crash" some 3-4 years ago. They were right on the money............apart from the dates of course.