Reply to: Recession on the horizon?

[meridian]

On my trading account I was short on the market quite heavily the past 3 months but got wiped out by the sudden inexplicable surge in global markets.

Trade what you see, not what you think will/want to happen...

[ContractIn]

So WTF will you do this time next xmas when you wake up to the lenders SVR of around 8.5% ? ?

That is why I am not re-investing in another property but reducing my current mortgage debt!

[BlasterBates]

Well, yes we're due for a correction, but there is a difference between a correction and a bear market, like 2001-2003. The correction last year was also severe, if anyone noticed. Many stocks in selective areas halved in value last year, and are still way down on 2005 valuations especially in Asia and Latin America. I wouldn't touch European stocks though.

I must admit I have some stocks that have rocketed recently so they're probably due for a correction

[ChimpMaster]

[QUOTE=GreenerGrass]Obviously if there is a major correction, beside shorting, "Cash is king" but we need to avoid double taxation which leaves Cash ISAs (no good for shifting significant amounts into) or NS&I inflation-linked 3 yr bonds.

Anyone shifting their existing equity ISAs into bond funds? ........
QUOTE]

Sounds like what I'm doing. I closed China/India/Asian ISA funds last week, but even though the Chinese markets crashed, the fund price has gone up! Anyway I also closed some higher risk UK funds and put the whole lot into lower risk income bonds (mostly government). Bond price has since fallen. However, I'm hoping for the crash and so bonds will protect me better.

On my trading account I was short on the market quite heavily the past 3 months but got wiped out by the sudden inexplicable surge in global markets.

[pickle]

That is my kind of thinking especially with the interest rate rises.

I am reasonably lucky as got a 2yr fixed rate mortgage agreed in May last year but my move took 7 months. Luckliy the lender still honoured my agreement. However wouldn't want my mortgage amount with the rates today!

So WTF will you do this time next xmas when you wake up to the lenders SVR of around 8.5% ? ?

[GreenerGrass]

Obviously if there is a major correction, beside shorting, "Cash is king" but we need to avoid double taxation which leaves Cash ISAs (no good for shifting significant amounts into) or NS&I inflation-linked 3 yr bonds.

Anyone shifting their existing equity ISAs into bond funds?
So far I've spotted New Star's Extra High Yield Bond fund is one of the better performers but still looks like you'd lose money in a full on crash according to the longer term graphs. Just not as much as equities.
These bond funds seem to be a waste of time held outside an ISA as you get taxed on the interest (if 60%+ of fund holdings are bonds) so you may as well hold cash.
Government bond funds offer crummy returns but will protect you better.

As for equity funds Invesco Perpetual High Income is a good defensive equity fund, but could still take a hammering if things go really tits up.

[DGK]

BUY ERX, YOO and JSP

ERX produce a breast cancer cure that's in late trials.

YOOMEDIA , pay for parking by mobile phone, most of the red button technology on TV (including red nose day) , 100% of the poker channel pokerzone.

Jessops, drop following profit warning well over done. Strategic review due with results at the end of this month. 20 currently, 150p Q4 2007 target.

Hope this helps

If you want a Chinese stock then look at SFT. The next Sage.

[Clippy]

More doom and gloom?

[BlasterBates]

Brits are laughing

[shaunbhoy]

The more money printed the less each piece of money is worth.
This is inflation.

But that is not happening here in the UK. Have you listened to nothing Gordon has told you? Inflation is only something that happens to houses, water bills, and utility prices, certainly not something that troubles us under his prudent guidance.

[NoddY]

Anyone can make money in a boom.
This is because there is more money printed.
The more money printed the less each piece of money is worth.
This is inflation. More money gets you less - less oil, less housing, less of everything - except stuff made by Chinamen.
This has been the world for the last 10 years.

Now, the trick is to earn money while no-one else does.
This is when the value of money goes up - it's also usually the time when unemployment is high.

Thus a depression is an opportunity.

[threaded]

Why cheese sticks?

No, chicken curry!

[Euro-commuter]

There seems to be some financially savvy people on here

[BlasterBates]

No that takes into account the stock split. The huge drop was quite typical of many tech stocks.

[wendigo100]

There are hot spots in stocks but just to get things in perspective.

Oracle's shares were EUR 50 in the dot com boom. Since their low they've risen well to EUR 15.

A long way to go,...

enjoy

Doesn't the new price reflect stock-splitting though?