Interest rates to drop tomorrow?

[edison]

I think we will follow the Euro bank and go earlier than the US, simply because we have had to go harder due to the Liz budget fiasco. The rumour mill is suggesting an October election for the UK. Which I really hope is true.

October seems too early - the Tory party conference runs until Oct 2nd and I can't see them declaring the election until at least a week after that. So mid-Nov is my best guess, just after the US election.

[jamesbrown]

Thursday November 14 is still the most likely election date and August for a UK rate cut. US will probably be a little later for a rate cut.

[BlueSharp]

Economists are predicting September for a US interest rate cut but markets seem to be pricing in an earlier cut, maybe in June, for the Eurozone. Is the UK more likely to follow the US or the Eurozone?

Surely with the US election in Nov and the UK election likely at the same time, there will be enormous political pressure to get at least one rate cut, maybe even two, before then?

I think we will follow the Euro bank and go earlier than the US, simply because we have had to go harder due to the Liz budget fiasco. The rumour mill is suggesting an October election for the UK. Which I really hope is true.

[edison]

Economists are predicting September for a US interest rate cut but markets seem to be pricing in an earlier cut, maybe in June, for the Eurozone. Is the UK more likely to follow the US or the Eurozone?

Surely with the US election in Nov and the UK election likely at the same time, there will be enormous political pressure to get at least one rate cut, maybe even two, before then?

[Paddy]

No chance. America first and then we follow.

Basically what the BoE were saying in a very convoluted way.

[willendure]

No chance. America first and then we follow.

[Fraidycat]

Inflation has been a little bit hotter than expected recently, so the markets are predicting August for the first rate cut. Hopefully between now an August the date doesn't get moved back again.

[jamesbrown]

Absolutely no chance. June would be the absolute earliest, but probably August.

[BlueSharp]

Lots of betting that interest rates will drop very soon if not tomorrow. Eurozone is showing inflation at 2.4% if that's the same as the UK for April it would be odd to keep them higher for any longer than needed, especially as all the silliness over the mini-budget has subsided and the eurobank are planning cuts in June.