Reply to: House Price Crash

[minestrone]

Crash might not happen, but neither might price growth which was the only thing supporting this Ponzi scheme.

ehhh?

[OwlHoot]

The government would do anything and I mean anything at all to prevent a house price crash, it's insane and doing a great deal of damage to the UK economy as such a large portion of people's income is now spent on the mortgage payments their finances have become quite vulnerable.

There should be a crash. Lots of things the government should do, or rather stop doing.

This claimed constant yearly GDP growth (besides the Covid hiccup) as a measure of propsperity is a bunch of carp, and there's an easy way to prove it.

If the UK was steadily growing richer, then the fairly fixed costs of public spending would mean taxes, as a proportion of income, would generally tend to decline, whereas in fact they do no such thing. If anything, there is constant pressure for ever more tax rises. Go figure.

The problem is that, scandalously, GDP includes public spending. So there there is actually a perverse incentive for Governments to keep increasing it.

[Andy2]

Where does it say the site has been sold?

loos like the site is back now

[RetSet]

Where does it say the site has been sold?

[AtW]

I am not ASSAS. He reeked of the stereotypical southerner who relished seeing people suffer, whilst assuming he was above them all. He's probably retired in Benidorm after a quadruple bypass.

For not being him you seem to know him very well

[rogerfederer]

You tell ‘em how it is, sas

I am not ASSAS. He reeked of the stereotypical southerner who relished seeing people suffer, whilst assuming he was above them all. He's probably retired in Benidorm after a quadruple bypass.

[AtW]

You tell ‘em how it is, sas

[rogerfederer]

40K to 60K is still a 50% increase.
<snip>

Again, who cares? The most important thing for permanent jobs and consideration thereof is AFTER tax. If anybody here is looking at permanent jobs, look only at the after tax amount you're getting and compare on this basis. Also expect an extra 10-15% tax on top given the current idiots occupying government and their nepotistic spending habits.

[rogerfederer]

40K to 60K is still a 50% increase.

40K to 70K would be exactly 75%, which is the official compounded rate of inflation over the last 20 years.

An IT professional with 20+ years of experience should be easily able to command 70K as a permie, unless said professional is really crap at his job.

I mean before covid hit at least, now employers and agents may be exploiting the situation to get people cheaper

What's the point in focusing on a sector that is officially on the skills shortage list? These jobs will naturally pay more. The fact they may pay more than other jobs doesn't mean they are paying fairly, given erosion of salary rises over the last few decades.

The average 20something who is qualified in a subject is unable to get a job directly related to that subject. The UK does not value creative industries enough. A significant number of 20somethings I know live with their parents. Forget London or Edinburgh for a minute, where most rent in shares anyway, but concentrate on everywhere else. Look around you at the town and city centres: decimated.

Where are the unqualified teenagers and 20somethings meant to work? Why should we see people who are very intelligent and qualified have to work in coffee shops, call centres and the like? This is much worse than 2008-2010 for young people and what is coming is worse.

The distribution of income and wealth has increased the older we look. The 20somethings and under really have a bleak future as of this moment. I don't see any plan, let alone a cohesive one, to stop these zero hours or equivalent contracts (Uber Eats, Deliveroo, Just Eat) or very poor quality Americanized work, such as Amaozn warehouses. Every time you order from Amazon keep in mind that those works are treated like excrement and are dropped if they are deemed to want to go to the toilet too much or simply aren't fast enough. It's humanized slave labour and is morally wrong.

When I grew up I had a range of jobs and they shaped me, as well as shaping my outlook on society. Due to the Tories we are now raising kids who can have no real expectation, statistically, of a good job and little choice in the way of unqualified jobs as they grow up. It's rubbish and needs to change. IT is a tiny piece of this pie. Salaries are not up much over the decades, that's for sure. Ask any contractor, rates are generally down and have been, on average, for a very long time. I don't really care if Canary Wharf posts £750/day sometimes for a programmer, that's not common and the requirements are generally quite niche.

[AtW]

40K to 60K is still a 50% increase.

It’s not since the tax is higher (and factor in possible loss of benefits like child related scam Osborne pulled)

[Fraidycat]

Fact in 2009 rates for senior devs on day rates was 650 per day - 10 yers later and they are still there and in many cases have come down to 550

IT jobs watch stats are UK median contract rate in 2009 was £350 a day, and currently around £470. Which is inline with inflation over the period.

Specific skills and locations will vary, some will beat inflation, some will lag.

eg I was on £350 a day in 2006, im currently on almost £600

[NowPermOutsideUK]

Also worth pointing out that many lenders in 2015 i think reduced the maximum income multiple for mortgages over 500K from 5 times to 4 times so reducing the amount of money that can be borrowed - This matters in london where a smart three bed flat is 1 million and you need a 750k mortgage

I can also tell you that perm salaries in london have no where near kept up with inflation - Fact in 2009 rates for senior devs on day rates was 650 per day - 10 yers later and they are still there and in many cases have come down to 550

Five years ago I was able to squeeze a 780K mortgage out of Halifax on a day rate of 650 - These days the max they would lend is 624K and thats if you are luckly because they also have an affordability so the 624K number is the absolute max

[Fraidycat]

How many 90k salary paying jobs do you see on jobserve ? I see plenty for 50k.
From my personal experience , in my skillset , 20 years ago, I was on a salary of 40k.
If I join a permie job now I will get no more than 50-60k.
I may see a job advertised for 80k but that will be an outlier and they keep advertising that for months

40K to 60K is still a 50% increase.

40K to 70K would be exactly 75%, which is the official compounded rate of inflation over the last 20 years.

An IT professional with 20+ years of experience should be easily able to command 70K as a permie, unless said professional is really crap at his job.

I mean before covid hit at least, now employers and agents may be exploiting the situation to get people cheaper

[Andy2]

Now that kind of 55K role is paying 90K, and the £500 a day contract in the city is typically advertised at £700 a day.
.

How many 90k salary paying jobs do you see on jobserve ? I see plenty for 50k.
From my personal experience , in my skillset , 20 years ago, I was on a salary of 40k.
If I join a permie job now I will get no more than 50-60k.
I may see a job advertised for 80k but that will be an outlier and they keep advertising that for months

[Fraidycat]

After the financial crisis banks were weak so they demanded high deposits you can buy a house with a 5% deposit these days.

95% Mortgages | 5% Deposit Mortgage - HSBC UK

High inflation doesn't help because the banks jack up the interest rates to compensate.

Those wont help most people because prices are so high. You need to raise much more that 5% to get within the lending multiple.

The property you want is 250K but bank will only lend 200K based on your salary, so you need to raise a 50K deposit.

The days of self cert/ liar loans are long gone.

This is why the average first time buyer deposit is 50K ( and 100K+ in London).
Most cant qualify for 5% mortgages any more. Not unless you earn IT contractor rates...