Reply to: Doom: English Lockdown

[Hobosapien]

Better prepare yourselves for the long haul, this ain't going away anytime soon:


Covid: When will it be over and we can do this again?

I don't think it will settle down at all in the next 18 months.

Game over man, game over.


Seeing as the root of the problem in the UK is the top heavy population in terms of age and the lack of infrastructure to cope with them all getting ill around the same time, maybe it needs some proper out of the box thinking. How about putting the most vulnerable in quarantine for 2 weeks then onto deep cleaned cruise ships for the winter until a vaccine is available. They can sail the world while the rest of us get on with normal life. If there's too many of them, turn a mediteranian island into an over 60s only holiday camp. Strict controls to stop the virus getting in. Sorted.

[jayn200]

But you've missed some details around that i.e. a timeline again. Ok they might have gotten it wrong time wise but if we keep on like this and don't do something to stop it it's highly possible will hit it.
If someone quoted the infection figures to us 4 months ago we'd have moaned and complained about it being unrealistic blah blah blah and look at us now.

These are worst case predictions if something doesn't change. The fact they might be out by a good percetage doesn't mean we should do any less. This is still people dying. 4000, 3000, 2500... we still need to do something pretty drastic to avoid it.

I do agree that something needs to be done to alter course but just saying 4000 a day doesn't pass the sense check. Now that darmstadt posted the models it makes sense that it's just the worst case model put out there amoung many that are being reviewed.

[northernladuk]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Not sure why people are arguing about that graph. None of the numbers on there are acceptable or should make a blind bit of difference about the action needed to stop it.

[northernladuk]

Yeah I agree but the government also putting out estimates of 4000+ deaths a day doesn't help either when there is no data to support that. That would imply like at least 1/4 - 1/5 of the population getting infected in a single week.... There is absolutely nothing to support this happening.

But you've missed some details around that i.e. a timeline again. Ok they might have gotten it wrong time wise but if we keep on like this and don't do something to stop it it's highly possible will hit it.
If someone quoted the infection figures to us 4 months ago we'd have moaned and complained about it being unrealistic blah blah blah and look at us now.

These are worst case predictions if something doesn't change. The fact they might be out by a good percetage doesn't mean we should do any less. This is still people dying. 4000, 3000, 2500... we still need to do something pretty drastic to avoid it.

[jayn200]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Thank you. That makes sense now. Much better context then the media just saying 4000+ deaths a day expected.

[minestrone]

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

Warwick should stick to tenable, I don't know who's idea it was to ask him for a COVID death rate prediction.

[AtW]

Does one need to be an expert in anything other than basic geometrical progression and some knowledge about limits in hospital capacity?

[Old Greg]

It’s not what happens now that’s important, but what will happen very soon (matter of weeks) unless course of Titanic is changed - before the collision with iceberg everything was totally fine

It's very odd thinking that people who work in the NHS must be experts in epidemiology. It reminds me of the CUK poster who thought that a civil engineer climate change skeptic had expertise in climate change because civil engineers build dams and bridges, which are imp[acted by climate change.

[darmstadt]

All the media is reporting 4000+ from coronavirus itself but who knows if they are reporting it correctly since I don't believe there was any official press release or anything.

You cannot accurately predict something that hasn't happened before (although people always try). No where has reached the level of death they were predicting nor the level of infections. I find it hard to believe we are going to hit 3 times what we did earlier in the year when everyone was at work, using public transport, not social distancing or wear masks, etc.

The 4000 is a worse case scenario which was extrapolated using slightly different criteria:

[AtW]

We have family members who work in the NHS and even in Spanish hospitals. They all say the same... nowhere near capacity, not being overwhelmed and don't understand the government policy panic.

Where I am it's obvious where the spread vectors are, Boomers continuously going for lunch/dinner as they can't cook for themselves and have massive final salary pensions and no hobbies to entertain themselves. Just lock-down the Boomers and raid their pensions to pay for everything.

It’s not what happens now that’s important, but what will happen very soon (matter of weeks) unless course of Titanic is changed - before the collision with iceberg everything was totally fine

[jayn200]

Are the deaths Covid deaths, or deaths caused by not being able to get timely NHS treatment due to NHS resources being concentrated on treating Covid patients?

All the media is reporting 4000+ from coronavirus itself but who knows if they are reporting it correctly since I don't believe there was any official press release or anything.

You cannot accurately predict something that hasn't happened before (although people always try). No where has reached the level of death they were predicting nor the level of infections. I find it hard to believe we are going to hit 3 times what we did earlier in the year when everyone was at work, using public transport, not social distancing or wear masks, etc.

[darmstadt]

Hiding in a fridge again, possibly:

Boris Johnson has pulled out of an appearance at the annual conference of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) after the organisation issued warnings about a second lockdown and Brexit.

CBI president Lord Bilimoria said it was only the second time a prime minister had not spoken at the event.
The group’s director general Dame Carolyn Fairbairn said the second national lockdown will be a “real body blow” for firms and that appearing at the conference was an opportunity for the prime minister “to make it absolutely clear that he backs business”.

But Lord Bilimoria revealed on Monday morning that the PM had pulled out and was being replaced by business secretary Alok Sharma.

Lord Bilimoria told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is absolutely normal, in the history of the CBI, for the Prime Minister of the day to address the annual conference.

[darmstadt]

Exactly. You need to look at the European countries who are approaching deep do-do and plan to avoid that.

Belgium becomes latest European country to announce strict lockdown amid soaring coronavirus cases | Euronews

Matt Hancock's idea of a well run Covid campaign: Once Matt Hancock's guiding light, Belgium now has one of the world's highest case rates

[Old Greg]

Today they aren't. I do wish people would stop using the now as a guide and completely ignore the fact it's on the rise. Just not helpful at all.

Exactly. You need to look at the European countries who are approaching deep do-do and plan to avoid that.

Belgium becomes latest European country to announce strict lockdown amid soaring coronavirus cases | Euronews

Belgium now has more patients in its hospitals with the virus than at the peak of the first wave in early spring.

Reports during the week said health workers in some hospitals in Liege, Belgium's third-largest city and a coronavirus hotspot, had been asked to continue working even if they have tested positive for COVID-19, so long as they were not displaying any symptoms.


The country of 11.5 million people had 6,187 people hospitalised with the virus on Friday, 1,057 of whom were in intensive care.


Over the last week, it recorded more than 100,000 new infections (more than 15,000 per day on average), which is a record.

[SueEllen]

Yeah I agree but the government also putting out estimates of 4000+ deaths a day doesn't help either when there is no data to support that. That would imply like at least 1/4 - 1/5 of the population getting infected in a single week.... There is absolutely nothing to support this happening.

Are the deaths Covid deaths, or deaths caused by not being able to get timely NHS treatment due to NHS resources being concentrated on treating Covid patients?