Reply to: UK economy shrinks by record 20.4% in April lockdown

[TwoWolves]

Tory Scum.

Rishi or TwoWolves?

As the last two weeks have demonstrated, Toryism (Tory - Wikipedia) is now a historical anachronism. The Torys are clearly now Whigs. Stop pining for a by-gone age and embrace the meaningless future.

[DoctorStrangelove]

Nobody here on this forum is an expert

Well you got that right.

[AtW]

There is no proof that current strains are less lethal

[rogerfederer]

Far less cases no doubt but could the lock down have been lifted 2 or more weeks earlier? Maybe not, as we would need to have some progress on tracking and other measures in place. Greece may have seen far fewer deaths than the UK but there other factors too, a population density less than a 1/3 of ours, a younger population, ethnicity etc

Deaths is not the same as effect on economy. Many of those who die are older or in poorer health and make less contribution to the economy anyway. Not saying they don't matter but we need to think about those who have their whole lives ahead of them. Strict lock downs that destroy the economy will impact their lives in many ways, unemployment, homelessness, mental health problems, a rise in crime due to lack of legal alternatives. Perhaps we should have had a more focused lock down aimed at the vulnerable, those with health problems, care homes etc. We shall see who got it right after this is all over.

PS Interesting DT article re BJ "ignoring" the advice of health advisers:



'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong

Lockdown was clearly a good decision. I wouldn't expect anything else except nonsense from the Telegraph, mind you.

Have you considered that perhaps you are too influenced by newspapers? There is often a simplicity to your posts that suggest you favour very simple solutions and answers to very complex issues.

Why rely on newspapers at all?

For any lockdown stats and advice always go to the horse's mouth: stats websites, government publications (that are really just civil service publications) and stat aggregation websites. You can become easily familiar with the downsides of each country covid19 data collection methodology. It makes for easier comparison to know this yourself.

Given how many people are carers in the UK, nobody seen or suggested any alternative to lockdown until after the fact. The Telegraph right wingers ALWAYS moan after the fact. It's easy to use hindsight and 'after the fact' thinking to try show an alternative theory, but ultimately they didn't suggest it before lockdown, every other decent country was or had locked down and it clearly made a demonstrable difference to the covid19 death count. We still don't know if there's herd immunity to this.

Ultimately, the high street was dying a death anyway and online ordering was becoming the norm. Many businesses have taken the opportunity to accelerate decentralisation plans and stop the reliance on dying shopping centres as it's obvious they aren't the future of shopping.

It's basically very easy to always feel you're right about something, even if you're not, if you take the opposite view to the prevailing logical analysis that's been constructed. Facebook is a minefield of posts like this:

"Hardly any deaths really, why did we even lockdown as deaths are so low." I mean, the stupidity of such a statement is stark; the cause of the low number of deaths (even although ours are very high indeed when compared to other similar countries) is obviously the lockdown.

Trying to raise some bs like "the mental health effects will be worse" is easy to say now that you know the original strain isn't the strain people seem to be catching. Those who caught the original viral strain were significantly more likely to end up in hospital on a ventilator. I know two people who had the original strain, as they were seated near the Seattle patient zero. They're now dead. They were young men in their thirties.

Perhaps try using your crystal ball to look to the future and start providing analysis and answers and you'll see that it's almost an impossible task for a layman such as yourself. Nobody here on this forum is an expert, but those who study and try to contribute to virology clearly are experts; the fact economists didn't chime against lockdown suggests it was a good idea.

Spain is reopening and has minimal cases. The UK isn't because England voted in huge numbers of an incompetent government. Look closer to home for your solutions, rather than retrospectively pretend you or your Telegraph had a clue what was going on and what to do. Business doesn't have all the answers and they never have, they're just self-interested in maximising sales.

[LondonManc]

Tory Scum.

Rishi or TwoWolves?

[AtW]

Tory Scum.

It’s nothing personal

[DimPrawn]

Don't worry about the economy, IR35 will fix everything and we'll be sailing along again in no time. That's what Little Rishi told us and he must be right as his in-laws own Infosys.

Tory Scum.

[TwoWolves]

Don't worry about the economy, IR35 will fix everything and we'll be sailing along again in no time. That's what Little Rishi told us and he must be right as his in-laws own Infosys.

[minestrone]

Some people deserve bad government.

Too many people need government.

[xoggoth]

Bah! Bet yer 40p yer wrong! CUK should have a betting thread.

[SarahT3]

My point is that an earlier lock down would have damaged the economy even more. You can't have it both ways.

What..? how?
It's not like we don't have enough other examples of countries to compare by
It's no huge coincidence the UK has ended up with the worst stats of any European country.
What're you even on

[AtW]

2 weeks earlier shut down would have allowed much earlier and much safer lifting - by far more than 2 weeks due to the way virus spreads (exponentially fast) and how much slower patients recover (look at charts from hospitals).

1 week would have made a lot of difference, 2 weeks for certain.

Naturally Tories (or Labour if they were in power) would argue that people would not have complied with lockdown until morgues were full, not buying this because by that point it was clear what was going on in Italy - shutting down early Feb would not have worked, but late Feb for sure good chances

[xoggoth]

Well this problem:

Bank of England 'ready to act' as economy shrinks record 20% - BBC News

Will be fixed by this:

Bank of England joins Dennis the Menace for kids project - BBC News

Yeh! Dennis will certainly do it! With the help of Gnasher.

[xoggoth]

2 weeks earlier shut down would have gotten us in great position with about feck all cases - like Greece achieved

Far less cases no doubt but could the lock down have been lifted 2 or more weeks earlier? Maybe not, as we would need to have some progress on tracking and other measures in place. Greece may have seen far fewer deaths than the UK but there other factors too, a population density less than a 1/3 of ours, a younger population, ethnicity etc

Deaths is not the same as effect on economy. Many of those who die are older or in poorer health and make less contribution to the economy anyway. Not saying they don't matter but we need to think about those who have their whole lives ahead of them. Strict lock downs that destroy the economy will impact their lives in many ways, unemployment, homelessness, mental health problems, a rise in crime due to lack of legal alternatives. Perhaps we should have had a more focused lock down aimed at the vulnerable, those with health problems, care homes etc. We shall see who got it right after this is all over.

PS Interesting DT article re BJ "ignoring" the advice of health advisers:

In other words, the containment measures introduced on March 16 were more than sufficient to halt the spread of the virus. The government’s scientific advisors did not urge the Prime Minister to go any further, and they were right not to do so. I’m convinced that the decision to place the entire country in suspended animation on March 23 will end up costing more lives than the pandemic.

The myth that’s grown up around the lockdown, then, is the opposite of the truth. Boris didn’t turn a deaf ear to the scientists urging him to lock down. Rather, he ignored their advice to tread carefully and rushed into one of the worst decisions in our history.

'The science' was right – it was the Government that was wrong

[darmstadt]

Well this problem:

Bank of England 'ready to act' as economy shrinks record 20% - BBC News

Will be fixed by this:

Bank of England joins Dennis the Menace for kids project - BBC News