Reply to: For those expecting another US led V shaped recovery

[Old Greg]

$350 billion small business paycheck-protection program out of cash - Business Insider

It was on a first-come-first-serve basis, just to make sure firms were encouraged to undertake due diligence and follow robust corporate governance.

[DimPrawn]

$350 billion small business paycheck-protection program out of cash - Business Insider

A critical government relief program for small businesses is already out of money just two weeks after it was rolled out.
The $350 billion Paycheck Protection Program had faced overwhelming demand since its introduction on April 3.

[Paralytic]

22 million jobs erased in 4 weeks!

22m job claims in 4 weeks. I bet its not a 1:1 with actual job losses.

[Paralytic]

Last week, I was expecting a K based recovery, but I've gone contrarian and am now expecting a Q based recovery.

[Hobosapien]

Trump wanting to re-open the economy asap to avoid terminal velocity as it sinks. Better hang on, this white knuckle ride hasn't even reached the first drop yet.

[Old Greg]

Recovery will start proper once there is proven cheap available medicine to treat people who got infected (and obviously testing to detect it early, not when people need to be on ventilator).

Vaccine (if it works) 12-18 months away, though there are noises if it being available to medical workers this fall, which is likely, but feck knows if it works (and for how long).

But what else is there to unwind now? People have lost their jobs. The're not spending in the economy. What is going to happen to all those never-never car loans? The world has been borrowing from the future to prop up car manufacturing. What else is lurking?

[AtW]

Recovery will start proper once there is proven cheap available medicine to treat people who got infected (and obviously testing to detect it early, not when people need to be on ventilator).

Vaccine (if it works) 12-18 months away, though there are noises if it being available to medical workers this fall, which is likely, but feck knows if it works (and for how long).

[DealorNoDeal]

History tells a different story

The US economy was doing better before the GFC (in 2006) than it was before this crisis (in 2019).

In fact, since the GFC, GDP growth has never exceded that of 2006. (So much for a roaring economy under Trump)

US GDP by Year Compared to Recessions and Events

Unless CV19 proves to be much less of a financial shock, it's hard to see how any recovery can be better than after the GFC.

[scooterscot]

Lets hope the economy in the US picks up. Otherwise it may be that the orange moron is gone, and who would entertain us as much as he has?

Dimprawn accepts the challenge.

[scooterscot]

Let's see what the updates to this graph look like.

Just wait until we see the Boris / Brexit graph - will make a bottomless pit look shallow.

[AtW]

With Biden in the future won’t be orange no more

[sasguru]

Lets hope the economy in the US picks up. Otherwise it may be that the orange moron is gone, and who would entertain us as much as he has?

[DimPrawn]

[Old Greg]

Let's see what the updates to this graph look like.

[CheeseSlice]

22 million jobs erased in 4 weeks!