Reply to: Impending house price crash

[GigiBronz]

That’s old logic - new logic is that they just print money to keep new borrowing costs whee they want (close to zero)

it also helps with eroding the savings of people without assets hence they have to work harder / return to the economy.
in some terms inflation is theft.

[AtW]

UK govt has £2 trillion of debt which will erode with time due to inflation.

That’s old logic - new logic is that they just print money to keep new borrowing costs whee they want (close to zero)

[Lance]

inflation is a good thing for govt but terrible for general public. Inflation is good for us only if it is accompanied by wage inflation , which has not happened for the last 10-15 years.

not necessarily.
If you're in debt then inflation reduces that debt burden.
So if you have a decent index linked pension and a mortgage you can do very nicely. Boomers should love inflation (but boomers don't know it as they remember the 70s).

[Andy2]

No, it's not good because they'll have to index pensions and other stuff (like gilts interest) plus risk having to increase "independent" BoE rates, that's why they go to extraordinary lengths to fake it to as low as possible.

UK govt has £2 trillion of debt which will erode with time due to inflation.

[AtW]

inflation is a good thing for govt

No, it's not good because they'll have to index pensions and other stuff (like gilts interest) plus risk having to increase "independent" BoE rates, that's why they go to extraordinary lengths to fake it to as low as possible.

[Andy2]

Are you deliberately twisting the narrative, or just bloody thick? Inflation is the norm, and a good thing. Runaway inflation is not. One was predicted by the QE doomsters, the other happened.

inflation is a good thing for govt but terrible for general public. Inflation is good for us only if it is accompanied by wage inflation , which has not happened for the last 10-15 years.

[d000hg]

Indeed, no inflation. Council tax hasn't gone up, rent hasn't gone up, rail fares never went up, utility bills haven't gotten more expensive.

Are you deliberately twisting the narrative, or just bloody thick? Inflation is the norm, and a good thing. Runaway inflation is not. One was predicted by the QE doomsters, the other happened.

[AtW]

It's the new paradigm - high inflation keeps mortgage interest rates low.

[GigiBronz]

Indeed, no inflation. Council tax hasn't gone up, rent hasn't gone up, rail fares never went up, utility bills haven't gotten more expensive.

I mean even new cars are cheap as chips, Golf GTI without options is only £33,460 I'm sure 15 years ago a Golf GTI was £20,000 but I must have imagined that.

which they used to over-engineer but with the progress of technology they are doing them just right to get you through warranty.

and of course you cannot afford them because wages have been stagnant for the same period with increased inflation and now you can only finance with high interest rate a sharp depreciating asset.

where are all the boomers to tell us to work harder?

[_V_]

Indeed, no inflation. Council tax hasn't gone up, rent hasn't gone up, rail fares never went up, utility bills haven't gotten more expensive.

I mean even new cars are cheap as chips, Golf GTI without options is only £33,460 I'm sure 15 years ago a Golf GTI was £20,000 but I must have imagined that.

[AtW]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.

[GigiBronz]

Then there's the Trump approach, which is just to say the facts support your claims, and any disputing 'evidence' is just a conspiracy.

I don't know what you'd claim the actual inflation has been but if we suggested everything has doubled in price since 2005 that's an average inflation rate of 5%. Which is not what people were suggesting during QE...

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/LB1:COM

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND
https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/product/indices/bloomberg-commodity-index-family/

commodities index has about 50% YTD, it is what underlies all economic activities of production. 50% is quite significant. check lumber futures also. that is a fun one.
what ends up on the shelf is either subsidised by the state through backdoors, tax reliefs etc.
or we have package shrinkage

and most of the relevant products for inflation calculation have been taken out of the calculation basket.

[d000hg]

We have runaway inflation, people are sticking their head in the sand about it.

Then there's the Trump approach, which is just to say the facts support your claims, and any disputing 'evidence' is just a conspiracy.

I don't know what you'd claim the actual inflation has been but if we suggested everything has doubled in price since 2005 that's an average inflation rate of 5%. Which is not what people were suggesting during QE...

[GigiBronz]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.

We have runaway inflation, people are sticking their head in the sand about it.

Housing has been propped-up and will be propped up for the indefinite future. You need to keep the old and senile people and you can achieve that by getting the young to pay them tribute.

[d000hg]

House price crash blah blah. People have been saying we're about to crash ever since the crash in... 2005 was it? That that was "just the beginning". THe same people who were bleating about QE inevitably leading to runaway inflation. 15 years later neither has happened. I suppose if you keep on saying it long enough you will eventually be right and can crow "I've been saying this for years" but it's not the most incisive commentary.