Reply to: Theresa May resigns

[AtW]

They will let her form Govt first - every vote counts

[WTFH]

She has said that she definitely won't resign.


...expect the resignation in the next week.

[OwlHoot]

She won't last much past the weekend if these results carry on. They'll want a quick changeover with Brexit talks a matter of days away. The bookies have Boris at 2/1. Draw your own conclusions.

God no, Boris is as weak as gnats piss when it comes to Brexit. David Davies perhaps.

And if Labour manage to form a coalition government I'd put my money on Kate Hoey being Brexit minister.

[VectraMan]

She won't last much past the weekend if these results carry on. They'll want a quick changeover with Brexit talks a matter of days away. The bookies have Boris at 2/1. Draw your own conclusions.

People reject May and then we get a more distrustful, more out of touch, über right nutcase leader?

Next step riots.

[Mordac]

Theresa May will probably not resign in the morning, that would be daft. But she'll be irreversibly wounded because this is absolutely the opposite of "strong & stable". All credibility will be gone. She'll be gone by the end of the year.

She won't last much past the weekend if these results carry on. They'll want a quick changeover with Brexit talks a matter of days away. The bookies have Boris at 2/1. Draw your own conclusions.

[chopper]

Bump!

Theresa May will probably not resign in the morning, that would be daft. But she'll be irreversibly wounded because this is absolutely the opposite of "strong & stable". All credibility will be gone. She'll be gone by the end of the year.

[AtW]

Bump!

[jamesbrown]

All published polling is paid for

HTH

I mean real money, not the pin money (~20k) they pay for these 1-2k sample sizes that are not properly randomized and require heavy demographic filtering.

[AtW]

If you really want decent polling, you need to pay for it (large, aggressively pursued/randomized, sample), and sacrifice the temporal resolution.

All published polling is paid for

HTH

[jamesbrown]

Poll gives Tories 1% lead

Tories go "nuclear"

I really have no idea why anyone listens to these polling companies anymore. They are so fundamentally dependent on turnout filters and other fudge factors (turnout almost entirely explains the systematic differences between polling companies), and the past is now a questionable guide to the future on turnout. Take the ICM poll tonight from the Mirror/Indy, for example. The headline lead is 11% CON. Before the turnout filter, it's 2% CON. Some of these companies are going to look very stupid come Friday. The problem is that a different set of companies look stupid every time

If you really want decent polling, you need to pay for it (large, aggressively pursued/randomized, sample), and sacrifice the temporal resolution.

[Mordac]

She promised she wouldn't.

Oh, no, that was the last Tory PM.
She only promised not to have a snap general election.

...but remember, lying about that is nothing compared to making a mistake about some figures, then apologising and correcting yourself.
Lying is OK if it's Tory lying.

Unless you're Diane Abbott, and then it gets put down to an inability to deal with complicated numbers.
Or unless you're Gordon Brown, and then it gets put down to something very similar.

[AtW]

ToryGraph begs to differ...

Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives' last-minute climb as ‘Leavers’ losing faith in Labour and turning to the Tories

Poll's target audience the staff serving Barlays Brothers palace...

[BlasterBates]

Poll gives Tories 1% lead

Tories go "nuclear"

[Bee]

Was this your dream last night?

[AtW]

The Tory Party is already revolting, but a week after the election they will be rebelling...