Reply to: Who will be the next US President?

[LondonManc]

Trump 15/4 best odds at the moment. Worst odds on Trump are 3/1.

Clinton best 3/10, worst 2/11.

The best odds on Trump and the worst odds on Hillary are from the same bookmaker.

Not far off being able to guarantee a profit but I'd rather let the tenner ride.

[missinggreenfields]

Betfair had Trump at 9/2 this morning, now 7/2.

Obviously not as confident of a Clinton win.

Trump 15/4 best odds at the moment. Worst odds on Trump are 3/1.

Clinton best 3/10, worst 2/11.

The best odds on Trump and the worst odds on Hillary are from the same bookmaker.

[LondonManc]

If you're going to bet on Trump, you want to get in quickly. If you're going to bet on Hillary, you could leave it a while.

Current odds:

Clinton: 1/4
Trump: 4/1
Bernie / Biden: 150/1
Ryan / Kaine: 250/1
McMullin / Kasich / Pence: 500/1
Johnson: 2500/1
Stein: 5000/1

Betfair had Trump at 9/2 this morning, now 7/2.

Obviously not as confident of a Clinton win.

[missinggreenfields]

If I can be arsed later I might see if I can get a free bet from any of the main sites. Nothing ventured, something possibly gained.

If you're going to bet on Trump, you want to get in quickly. If you're going to bet on Hillary, you could leave it a while.

Current odds:

Clinton: 1/4
Trump: 4/1
Bernie / Biden: 150/1
Ryan / Kaine: 250/1
McMullin / Kasich / Pence: 500/1
Johnson: 2500/1
Stein: 5000/1

[LondonManc]

Bet on an assassination before January 21st?

Can see Bill shuffling off his mortal coil within 12 months. He's not looked well recently.

[Paddy]

Clinton... I hope.

She thinks Portugal is still communist and she wants to invade and liberate it.

[d000hg]

If I can be arsed later I might see if I can get a free bet from any of the main sites. Nothing ventured, something possibly gained.

[missinggreenfields]

4/1 on each then, but you then have to get your extra bets out as cash somehow

Bet on an assassination before January 21st?

[LondonManc]

New 888sport customers can get 4/1 Clinton, 16/1 Trump (max £10 bet, winnings paid as extra bets etc)

4/1 on each then, but you then have to get your extra bets out as cash somehow

[missinggreenfields]

I've had a tenner on Trump; seems exceptional value at that price. I don't necessarily think he'll win but anything longer than 7/2 is worth a punt.

New 888sport customers can get 4/1 Clinton, 16/1 Trump (max £10 bet, winnings paid as extra bets etc)

[LondonManc]

Current oddschecker:

Clinton 2/9
Trump 9/2
Sanders, Biden, Ryan, Kaine 250/1
Kasich, Pence 500/1
Johnson 2500/1
Stein 5000/1

I've had a tenner on Trump; seems exceptional value at that price. I don't necessarily think he'll win but anything longer than 7/2 is worth a punt.

[Old Greg]

This election is largely about turnout and the assumptions made about the split among undeclared/undecided voters, which is unusually high. For me, Nate's probabilities pass the smell test more than others, but they aren't testable, of course. Actually, there are several factors in this election that make it exceptionally difficult to model.

Yes, it seems a pragmatic approach.

[jamesbrown]

I think Nate may have got his Bayesian priors a bit off. We'll see.

This election is largely about turnout and the assumptions made about the split among undeclared/undecided voters, which is unusually high. For me, Nate's probabilities pass the smell test more than others, but they aren't testable, of course. Actually, there are several factors in this election that make it exceptionally difficult to model.

[Old Greg]

If Trump wins, will they update the Doomsday Clock?

[SimonMac]

Any one watch Rich Hall's Presidential Grudge Match last night?

Really interesting on the whole process and history