Originally posted by pjclarke
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Who will be the next US President?
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Fair point.
Actually, in the event of a Trump landslide, there'll be money to be made buying cheap US shares and funds on the inevitable slump and equally inevitable rebound.My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Originally posted by pjclarke View PostFair point.
Actually, in the event of a Trump landslide, there'll be money to be made buying cheap US shares and funds on the inevitable slump and equally inevitable rebound.
Hillary Clinton
71.9%
Donald Trump
28.0%
You can see that there is a tiny gap between their combined vote and 100%. That gap is the 13.2% probability of McMullin winning Utah and no candidate reaching 270 and the House breaking the deadlock in favour of McMullin (and also a 0.3% chance of Johnson winning an electoral college vote etc.).Comment
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Yes, I heard that. McMullin between 800-1000 at Betfair.
Clinton by a modest margin. But I won't be staying up.My subconscious is annoying. It's got a mind of its own.Comment
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Current oddschecker:
Clinton 2/9
Trump 9/2
Sanders, Biden, Ryan, Kaine 250/1
Kasich, Pence 500/1
Johnson 2500/1
Stein 5000/1Comment
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Any one watch Rich Hall's Presidential Grudge Match last night?
Really interesting on the whole process and historyOriginally posted by Stevie Wonder BoyI can't see any way to do it can you please advise?
I want my account deleted and all of my information removed, I want to invoke my right to be forgotten.Comment
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Originally posted by pjclarke View PostI think Nate may have got his Bayesian priors a bit off. We'll see.Comment
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Originally posted by jamesbrown View PostThis election is largely about turnout and the assumptions made about the split among undeclared/undecided voters, which is unusually high. For me, Nate's probabilities pass the smell test more than others, but they aren't testable, of course. Actually, there are several factors in this election that make it exceptionally difficult to model.Comment
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Originally posted by missinggreenfields View PostCurrent oddschecker:
Clinton 2/9
Trump 9/2
Sanders, Biden, Ryan, Kaine 250/1
Kasich, Pence 500/1
Johnson 2500/1
Stein 5000/1The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world that he didn't existComment
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