Reply to: Oil - How low can it go?

[Tensai]

Sounds about right. More so, that have geared finance. Premier Oil I think is an example. A lot are just a pure bet on whether oil recovers. I have a few bob on it doing so, but then again I am no expert.

PMO is a reasonable bet. They recently bought E.ON's exploration business in the North Sea for (relative) peanuts. Assuming they can reduce the /bbl lifting costs, it won't take much of a bounce in the oil price for them to be quids in.

[The_Equalizer]

So it's more of an Epileptic Cat Fit than a Dead Cat Bounce?

Sounds about right. More so, that have geared finance. Premier Oil I think is an example. A lot are just a pure bet on whether oil recovers. I have a few bob on it doing so, but then again I am no expert.

[LondonManc]

All ollies have been bouncing about like mad, even mid-cap ones. If you fancy seat-of-your-pants stuff then just look at the AIM ones.

So it's more of an Epileptic Cat Fit than a Dead Cat Bounce?

[The_Equalizer]

Shell shares up 6%

Corner turned?

All ollies have been bouncing about like mad, even mid-cap ones. If you fancy seat-of-your-pants stuff then just look at the AIM ones.

[LondonManc]

Shell shares up 6%

Corner turned?

[DimPrawn]

I think it might be easier long term to short USD/CAD when the oil price goes into a long term uptrend than buy oil futures and roll contracts.

USD/CAD looks strongly inversely correlated to oil price (in USD).

[BlasterBates]

Non-Opec production is falling slowly, but that should accelerate.


http://www.nasdaq.com/article/opec-s...20151210-00161

[DaveB]

At this point it's all about market share. First ones to blink will lose out heavily and the glut in supplies means they would struggle to get back in again. The Saudi's are terrified of Iran taking a big chunk of their customer base now the sanctions are being lifted and they daren't raise prices or cut production. The fun will really start when storage capacity is exceeded and producers can't continue to soak up production costs in the hope of recouping when the market recovers.

[administrator]

How long until the bounce though? It's the Saudi's trying to smother the US shale business before it can develop isn't it? Could be a good time to pick up a nice V8 though, petrol could be cheap for a while. Until the Tories tax it I guess

[DimPrawn]

I'm watching this market carefully. A big lump sum on a spreadbetting account could lead to early retirement.

[BlasterBates]

From that article from AEP

It is not the price collapse that worries the IEA: it is the prospect of a global shock when the Saudis have flushed out rivals and the market springs back violently.

The lower the market goes the bigger the overshoot will be when it recovers.

[PurpleGorilla]

[AtW]

Not normally a fan of AEP, but since this mainly consists of quotes from people that know what they're talking about...

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard keeps posting DOOM tulipe, that's his speciality

Once Iran start pumping oil will be 15-25 range, high volatility.

Remember, you've heard it on here first...

[PurpleGorilla]

$20 is probably the bottom, can't see it going lower than that.

[jamesbrown]

Not normally a fan of AEP, but since this mainly consists of quotes from people that know what they're talking about...