Reply to: Renewables don't work

[pjclarke]

That's excellent news, the solar panels will be necessary for additional air conditioning in the summer.

Global carbon emissions to rise 2.5% in 2015 - PwC

We'll see. According to the REN21 document

Carbon emissions in 2014 remained at the previous year’s levels of 32.3 billion metric tons — a milestone that points to the impact worldwide renewable energy investment is having in the face of a 1.5 percent annual increase in global energy consumption, according to a new report from REN21. The tenth annual Renewables 2015 Global Status Report cites “increased penetration of renewable energy” and improvements in energy efficiency as the chief reasons for the noted emissions stabilization.

But PWC are correct:

He added that governments need to be more honest about the difficulty of achieving the 2C target, which may no longer even be viable.

Still some way to go on the hearts and minds front

When asked in 2001 if President Bush would be urging Americans to curb their energy use, his spokesman Ari Fleischer replied: ‘That’s a big “no”’. He went on to declare that wasting energy is akin to godliness:

The President believes that it’s an American way of life, and that it should be the goal of policy-makers to protect [it]. The American way of life is a blessed one . . . The President also believes that the American people’s use of energy is a reflection of the strength of our economy, of the way of life that the American people have come to enjoy.

In recent years wealthy Texans have discovered the joys of sitting in front of a log fire. As it is usually hot in Texas they must turn their air conditioners up so they can enjoy the cosy warmth from their hearths. Using energy simultaneously to heat a house and cool it only seems perverse if you reject George Bush’s conception of the American way of life.

Clive Hamilton: Building on Kyoto. New Left Review 45, May-June 2007.

[BlasterBates]

That's excellent news, the solar panels will be necessary for additional air conditioning in the summer.

Global carbon emissions to rise 2.5% in 2015 - PwC

[pjclarke]

And the future described by Bloomberg is here, in 2014, there was more renewables capacity added than coal and gas combined:

Renewables represented approximately 59% of net additions to global power capacity in 2014, with significant growth in all regions. Wind, solar PV, and hydro power dominated the market. By year’s end, renewables comprised an estimated 27.7% of the world’s power generating capacity, enough to supply an estimated 22.8% of global electricity.

Global Status Report - REN21

[pjclarke]

Those dope-smoking lefty treehuggers at Bloomberg Business enumerate 'Six massive shifts coming to the power markets near you' … here are a few

• The price of solar power*will continue to fall, until it becomes*the cheapest form of power in a rapidly expanding number*of national markets. By 2026, utility-scale solar will be competitive for the majority of the world,*according to BNEF.*The lifetime cost of a photovoltaic solar-power plant will drop by almost half over the next*25 years, even as the prices of fossil fuels*creep higher. Solar power will eventually get so cheap that it will outcompete new fossil-fuel plants*and even start*to supplant some existing*coal and gas plants, potentially stranding billions in fossil-fuel infrastructure. The industrial age was built on coal. The next 25 years will be the end of its dominance. *
  
• With solar power so cheap, investments will surge. Expect $3.7 trillion in solar investments between now and*2040,*according to BNEF. Solar alone*will account for more than a third of*new power capacity worldwide
  
• The biggest solar revolution will*take place on rooftops. High electricity prices and cheap residential battery storage will make small-scale rooftop solar ever more attractive, driving a 17-fold increase in installations. By 2040, rooftop solar will be cheaper than*electricity from the grid in every major economy, and almost 13 percent of electricity worldwide will be generated from small-scale solar systems.*
  
• Natural gas won't become the oft-idealized "bridge fuel" that transitions the world from coal to renewable energy,*according to BNEF. The U.S. fracking boom will help bring global prices down some, but few countries outside the U.S. will replace coal plants with natural gas. Instead, developing countries will often opt for some combination of coal, gas, and renewables.*
  
• The shift to renewables is happening shockingly fast, but not fast enough to prevent perilous levels of global warming. About $8 trillion, or two thirds of the world's spending on new power capacity over the next 25 years, will go toward renewables. Still, without additional policy action by governments, global carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will continue to rise until 2029 and will remain 13 percent higher than today's pollution levels in 2040. That's not enough to prevent the surface of the Earth from heating more than 2 degrees Celsius,*according to BNEF. That's considered the point-of-no-return for some of the worst consequences of climate change.

All of which underscores Gates' point:, even 'astronomical' $trillions spent on current renewables technology is not enough to prevent dangerous climatic change: we need to innovate, and fast.

[VectraMan]

WHS up to a point (apart from spelling of roofs)

Put "rooves" into Google and the first thing that comes up is roof - plural noun: rooves. Though it seems it's contentious and some say rooves is archaic. That's what I was taught at school though.

But the World ain't getting any safer, quite the reverse, and big power stations (nuclear or not) are pitifully vulnerable to even non-nuclear attacks.

Knock out the main power stations and sea ports in this country, and half or more of the population would probably be dead in six months!

Indeed. I hope IS aren't listening.

One great thing about nuclear is the very small amount of fuel required. If it were possible to build a tiny maintenance free nuclear power generator, you could bury one underneath every new house or building with enough fuel to last 100+ years. Then everybody would have free energy; it would come with the property and you could scrap the National Grid and the whole power/gas/oil industry.

[OwlHoot]

And it still doesn't work at night.

Is huge centralised generation really the best way? There's a lot of rooves in the UK that are essentially doing nothing. If near enough every house and office had solar panels the power would be used locally and you wouldn't need the massive investment in power lines.

WHS up to a point (apart from spelling of roofs)

I used to think a few nuclear plants would be the best solution. (Nuclear waste will doubtless be among the least of our descendents' problems.)

But the World ain't getting any safer, quite the reverse, and big power stations (nuclear or not) are pitifully vulnerable to even non-nuclear attacks.

Knock out the main power stations and sea ports in this country, and half or more of the population would probably be dead in six months!

[VectraMan]

In 50 years time we'll have fusion, and then we'll have so much cheap power we'll be able to convert the CO2 back into hydrocarbons and bury it under the sea.

[shaunbhoy]

Let's stop pussyfooting around and get some Nuclear powered plants built PDQ.

Clean and safe, you know it makes sense.

[pjclarke]

That creative writing course is really paying dividends. Keep it up.

[EternalOptimist]

For most houses, that's spot on.

That might sound like some sort of common ground. but it isn't.
let me explain why.....

EO's policy.
Come and buy a lovely cheap water heating kit. going cheap. buy 2 get a third one free.
it will pay for itself in x years.


pj's policy.
We will be sending engineers round to fit your compulsory water heating unit. These units are mandatory in order to save the planet from evil fossil fuels. Despite what the filthy deniers say, the sea will rise and drown us all if we dont fit these and take other appropriate measure of which we will inform you soon.
Electricity prices will neccessarly skyrocket to pay for this, and the massive new beaurocracy we have set up to manage and monitor the implementation. Failure to comply will be met with derision followed by fines then a jail term. The death penalty will only be used sparingly and then only on people we hate more than ourselves (and there are not many of THOSE around). In the meantime, enjoy yourself by helping your child to do his homework, particularly 'how the greens supported DDT against the evil petro chemimical military complex'. 'How nasa put a man on the moon by using models and linear thinking'
'How to google graphs and links to avoid thinking for yourself'. 'How to avoid a bad back when shifting heavy weights like goalposts'

[minestrone]

I just can't see any decent amount of hydro ever coming from Scotland, they have been saying 'in the next 5 years' for the last 25 years. Clearly nobody can solve the problem other than small scale.

You also have to add into the mix the SNP who exaggerate beyond belief every report into the capabilities of green energy in Scotland. Thankfully I will have left by the time they have to turn the nuclear plants off.

[d000hg]

No, course not, they're lucky in having enough shallow, windy seas to make offshore wind viable. But they are a good example of a country having the foresight to grasp that opportunity and make the necessary investment.

They're a special case, like Scotland (hyrdo, no people) or Iceland (geothermal), it's not something that makes sense generally.

The world's deserts receive more solar energy in six hours than the world uses in a year, 90% of the world’s population lives within 3,000 km of one of those deserts. An HVDC smart grid linking solar in N. Africa, geothermal in Iceland, hydro in Scandanavia, wind N. Europe would be expensive, but technically feasible, what is lacking is political will.

So instead of us being held to ransom by Russian oil pipelines, you want African nations controlling the developed world's energy supplies?

However, if countries which do have all the sun went to solar, it would make a big difference even if colder countries continued using oil.

[TykeMerc]

I agree that without monumental investment in R&D the future of renewables is no better than the current state and outside of the hydro generation in a few bits of the world that state is utterly pathetic, inadequate and effectively just decorative.

I would love there to be effective renewables, but the technology simply doesn't exist yet or it will never be even carbon neutral, nor is there the political will to take on the engineering projects that would be needed to implement the technology.

Talking of setting up massive solar generation in a part of the planet where there's large scale warfare, civil unrest and terrorism is complete cloud cuckoo land stuff, not forgetting the "interesting" challenge of getting the power where it's needed.

[minestrone]

My neighbour works in a refinery in Algeria, there are more people outside the camp with guns guarding them than there are workers inside.

Not a chance that area will ever be able to be used for anything like solar power and will never be.

[VectraMan]

Going to PV is a big mistake imho. Much better to use solar water heating (pre heating).
There is much less to go wrong, no subsidies required and it's a proven technology.

2015 and we're still talking about the steam engine as being the future. You may be right of course.

If it's centralised you need the distribution network, and if people are to stop burning gas to heat their homes and putting fossil fuels in their cars, then The National Grid as it stands will be woefully inadequate and will require massive investment. And if we're seriously talking about power being generated in Africa for all of Europe, then the scale and investment required is easily going to be "beyond astronomical" , and that's before we consider how the power is going to be generated.

Local power for local people surely is the way, even if it isn't as efficient.