Sharp fall in manufacturing takes markets by surprise

[Mich the Tester]

Ah, so next month we'll see a 'surprise' rise in manufacturing...Bulltulipters the lot of them

ftfy

[darmstadt]

That's why it's a 'surprise'.

Ah, so next month we'll see a 'surprise' rise in manufacturing...Pundits the lot of them

[Mich the Tester]

I'm confused as for the past few weeks I've been reading reports that manufacturing is on the rise, i.e.

https://mninews.marketnews.com/index...t-monthly-rise

That's why it's a 'surprise'.

[darmstadt]

I'm confused as for the past few weeks I've been reading reports that manufacturing is on the rise, i.e.

https://mninews.marketnews.com/index...t-monthly-rise

[vetran]

I'd imagine its because they finished the Aircraft carriers. £6 Billion FFS!


lets play top trumps!

QE2 class:

Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

65,000 tonnes

280 metres

1,600 bunks

In excess of 25 knots

9 Decks

The ships' only announced self-defence weapons are currently the Phalanx CIWS for airborne threats, with miniguns and 30 mm cannon to counter seaborne threats.

painted grey with car park and bunks.


PandO cruise ship:
P&O to build £500m 'superliner' cruise ship - Telegraph

154,407 tonnes

330 metres

4,370 hotel class beds

22 knots (25.3 mph)

17 Decks

No weapons.

fully fitted

totally worth the extra £2.5 billion for a ship half the size and with no frills.

[Troll]

Can anyone ever remember a time when economists weren't taken by surprise? The only surprise is that they still bother to make forecasts at all.

A bit like statisticians constantly revising their estimates to fit the actuals

All smoke and mirrors and effectively no more than guess work, the joke is that they class it as a profession... I imagine cretin in chief will be along shortly to explain why it aint necessarily so

[BrilloPad]

The only thing that is keeping the pound up is the thought of losing the fecking useless Scots.

[original PM]

The pound slumped half a cent against the dollar on the news to $1.7089 in early trading.

well foook me run to the hills

does a slump need to be a bit more than a 0.29% drop?

[Mich the Tester]

Can anyone ever remember a time when economists weren't taken by surprise? The only surprise is that they still bother to make forecasts at all.

I imagine they must lead very stressful lives. Taken by surprise all the time, how will they react if a pigeon tulips on their heads? Blind terror, heart attack, or have some kind of a fit?

[sal]

I'm wondering if they "cooked the books" in order to keep the interest rates low longer.

Jake Trask, a corporate dealer at UKForex, said the weak official data had “caught the markets off-guard” and would provide another argument for the doves at the Bank of England “to hold fire on any UK interest rate rise this year and wait to the first quarter of 2015”.

[scooterscot]

Still $1.72 and 1.26euro to the £1

The pound is too high against both currencies. Inflated by a housing boom. Wait until the pound reaches $2 and then sell Sell SELL!!!

[tomtomagain]

Oh dear.

Whatever happened to rebounding UK manufacturing on the UK's broad shoulders?


Sharp fall in manufacturing takes economists by surprise | The Times

Can anyone ever remember a time when economists weren't taken by surprise? The only surprise is that they still bother to make forecasts at all.

[eek]

Still $1.72 and 1.26euro to the £1

[scooterscot]

Oh dear.

Whatever happened to rebounding UK manufacturing on the UK's broad shoulders?


Sharp fall in manufacturing takes economists by surprise | The Times

Sharp fall in manufacturing takes economists by surprise

The Bombardier factory in Derby
The pound has tumbled against the dollar after manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in May, according to official figures that appeared to fly in the face of recent upbeat surveys.

Factory output fell 1.3 per cent between April and May, the first monthly fall since November and the steepest since January 2013, the Office for National Statistics said.

The surprisingly poor performance of manufacturing dragged down overall industrial production by 0.7 per cent.

Economists had expected industrial production to have grown at an annual rate of 3.2 per cent, but May’s disappointing performance meant the sector — which accounts for 15.2 per cent of national output — expanded by just 2.3 per cent over the year.

The pound slumped half a cent against the dollar on the news to $1.7089 in early trading.

Manufacturing, which represents a tenth of the economy, was expected to have enjoyed another healthy month after a series of surveys suggested the sector continued to expand.

May’s purchasing managers index, produced by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, had edged lower but the reading – of 57 – suggested the industry was still growing very strongly.

Jake Trask, a corporate dealer at UKForex, said the weak official data had “caught the markets off-guard” and would provide another argument for the doves at the Bank of England “to hold fire on any UK interest rate rise this year and wait to the first quarter of 2015”.

The slump in manufacturing was across the board, with 10 of the 13 subsectors posting a monthly decline. Basic metals and metal products was one of the worst hit sectors, declining 2.3 per cent in a sign that the strength of the pound may have been partly to blame.

Policymakers have been fairly sanguine about the pound’s 10 per cent appreciation over the past year as manufacturers have weathered the rise with little ill effect. Basic steel and coal industries have suffered, though.

The pound hit a near six-year high earlier this month both against the trade-weighted index and the dollar. Jeremy Cook, chief economist at the currency company, World First, said: “The strong level of the pound may be starting to impinge on export orders.”

Basic pharmaceutical products pharmaceutical preparations saw a 3.6 per cent decline. The manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products fell 4.1 per cent.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: “These data certainly add more confusion to the policy debate as to whether the Bank should start raising interest rates later this year rather than delaying until next year and risk a steeper series of rate hikes.”

Economists said the surprise fall was unlikely to have much of an impact on growth forecasts for the second quarter, which range from 0.8 per cent to 1 per cent. David Tinsley, UK economist at BNP Paribas, said: “There is now some downside risk to our view that GDP can expand by 1 per cent.”