Reply to: Farage calls for Alliance

[Alf W]

I hope we get a Bruckwit Candidate.

[minestrone]

Do you understand how.the future tense works?

Yes.

[Old Greg]

"So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take"

Usually.

a party that is like 3 months old will "usually" take seats.

Do you understand how.the future tense works?

[minestrone]

People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)

"So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take"

Usually.

a party that is like 3 months old will "usually" take seats.

[minestrone]

Who is this Rob Ford roaster?

[minestrone]

You don't see that insulin is a drug, even though it's listed as such in the BNF, so we can safely ignore your opinion.

Blinding.

[Old Greg]

"By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats"

I don't see this. UKIP got 3,881,099 in 2015. then in 2017 they got 600k

So that is 3.2 million voters kind of somewhere else in 2017.

Conservatives increased the vote by 2.1 million, labour by 3.5 million

You don't see that insulin is a drug, even though it's listed as such in the BNF, so we can safely ignore your opinion.

[minestrone]

Analysis here (from Graun).

"By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats"

I don't see this. UKIP got 3,881,099 in 2015. then in 2017 they got 600k

So that is 3.2 million voters kind of somewhere else in 2017.

Conservatives increased the vote by 2.1 million, labour by 3.5 million

[Whorty]

I'm watching a documentary at the moment called "People of Earth". Do you think that Farage is one of the reptilians?

You tell me; you're the one watching the show, not me

[Whorty]

He's not. The 10% that will vote for Farage will harm Corbyn more that Boris.

This election will be won with the centre. Corbyn is going off piste with the illuminati crap. Farage will pick up zoomers. Swinson has a personality like a stalker. Boris will clean up.

I'm sure you're right. Why not organise a party to celebrate Boris's guaranteed victory

[Platypus]

Farage wants one thing ... to be an MP and get on the Westminster gravy train. He doesn't care about his party, he just wants access to our money.

I'm watching a documentary at the moment called "People of Earth". Do you think that Farage is one of the reptilians?

[Old Greg]

Probably not the case.

Analysis here (from Graun).

Rob Ford, the politics professor and co-author of a seminal book on the Ukip vote, thinks that if the Brexit party does stand candidates all over Britain, the Conservatives will lose out more than Labour.


Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)

447
12:14 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Farage, in short, is making the John Mann error of thinking most Lab votes in Lab Leave seats are Leave voters. They aren’t. By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats

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12:14 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Once again the date of Brexit May hinge on politicians’ inability to understand the ecological fallacy

90
12:16 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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If you want to know more about the “ecological fallacy”, there is an explanation here.


Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Appreciate this May be hard to follow so will break it down:
1. Most Lab votes in Leave seats Farage is targeting voted Remain in 2016
2.The voters who will find BXP most attractive in such seats likely to be those who voted UKIP in 2015
3. Most of those voters backed Con in 2017

61
12:21 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
4. Therefore, BXP will typically (tho not always) hurt Con more than Lab in such seats. Just as (and indeed because) UKIP’s collapse in 2017 benefitted Con more than Lab in such sets

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12:21 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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[DealorNoDeal]

Farage says TBP will contest every seat in Britain unless Johnson drops his deal.

I hope they do. The GE wouldn't be the same without Nige & co.

[BrilloPad]

Probably not the case.

Agreed. Farage will take votes from Boris. Swinson from Korbyn.

Its a hung parliament again with endless bickering.

I am usually wrong. I hope I am.

[Old Greg]

He's not. The 10% that will vote for Farage will harm Corbyn more that Boris.

Probably not the case.