Reply to: UK to accept EU rules automatically after Brexit

[meridian]

Indeed the new agreement has changed the default position from crashing out on WTO rules to staying in the EU indefinitely. It certainly has kicked Brexit into the long grass because the transition is now a done deal.

On the face of it, it looks that way:

“In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union”

No agreement = the UK maintains full alignment with EU rules and regulations.

It’s not a legal document of course but just a heads of agreement. There are plenty of details to work out yet.

[BlasterBates]

Indeed the new agreement has changed the default position from crashing out on WTO rules to staying in the EU indefinitely. It certainly has kicked Brexit into the long grass because the transition is now a done deal.

[meridian]

Paragraphs 49 and 50 of the announcement this morning.

No new regulatory divergence between NI and EU; (= NI remains in SM+CU?)

No divergence between rUK and NI (= rUK remains in SM+CU?)

No divergence between rUK and NI unless agreed by the Northern Ireland Assembly (= NI now dictate rUK trade talks and direction...)

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/f...mpression=true

What we’ve actually ended up with is much firmer and clearer - and it explicitly invokes the customs union and the single market as the source of these regulations: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union which, now or in the future, support North-South co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 Agreement.”

The phrase “in the future” is crucial - it means that every single change in the EU’s rules will have to be mirrored north of the border. But this is now the wooden horse inside the walls of Troy because, to avoid the idea of Northern Ireland becoming a separate regulatory space, there will also have to be the same mirroring of the rules and regulations that continue to apply in Northern Ireland by the UK as a whole. The mathematics are simple: if A equals B and B equals C, then C equals A. A is Ireland’s position in the single market and customs union, B is Northern Ireland’s full alignment to that position and C is the UK’s commitment not to differ from Northern Ireland. The commitment to have no barriers to east-west trade means that London is effectively a prisoner of Belfast.

I suggested earlier this week that we were seeing things being turned upside down: instead of, as DUP leader Arlene Foster insisted, Northern Ireland leaving the EU on the same terms as the UK, the UK will have to leave the EU on the same terms as Northern Ireland. This, in effect, is what is now agreed.

[BlasterBates]

It's all up in the air really.

Theresa May’s Brexit deal ‘hard to reconcile’ with UK leaving the single market and customs union, EU says | The Independent

The most likely solution will be somewhat similar to Switzerland, i.e. an FTA similar to being in the EU which basically includes a "poison pill" that it automatically expires if the UK diverges its regulations from the EU.

[northernladyuk]

Yep, the worst case scenario...

A hard brexit or a no-brexit was what should have happened - this is a joke.

You couldn't make it up - what a total shower of a government* we have


*I use the term "government" loosely

Hard Brexit is where it's heading. The fudge over regulatory alignment and a soft Irish border won't wash when the UK finds it can't agree meaningful free trade deals with non-EU countries due to regulatory or tariff divergence from EU arrangements. Then they can blame it on the nasty old EUSSR.

[BlasterBates]

not looking good for the Tories:

Survation/Mail on Sunday, CON 37, LAB 45, LDEM 6

[Dark Black]

did you really expect anything more from them

TBH... no not really

Well done to TM - she's lost the Conservatives the next election.

Brexiteers won't vote for her because she hasn't brexited properly.

Remainers won't vote for her because she's left us worse off than we were fully "in" the EU.

Well done Theresa

[milanbenes]

Yep, the worst case scenario...

A hard brexit or a no-brexit was what should have happened - this is a joke.

You couldn't make it up - what a total shower of a government* we have


*I use the term "government" loosely

did you really expect anything more from them

Milan in "kids today" mode.

[darmstadt]

But at least they can have blue passports!

British passports could be printed in the EU in the year of Brexit if contract is awarded overseas, De La Rue warns

[Dark Black]

So as the remainers expected we stay in the EU but not in name.

Two tier EU coming.

Yep, the worst case scenario...

A hard brexit or a no-brexit was what should have happened - this is a joke.

You couldn't make it up - what a total shower of a government* we have


*I use the term "government" loosely

[meridian]

So as the remainers expected we stay in the EU but not in name.

Two tier EU coming.

... where we're demoted from the top table to the second tier, have no influence on regulations but have to accept them for "convergence", and still pay just as much for the privilege.

But at least they can have blue passports!

[BlasterBates]

So as the remainers expected we stay in the EU but not in name.

Two tier EU coming.

Indeed apart from Nige who voted himself out of power, Brexiteers seem to be caving, they've kicked their Utopian can down the road

[SueEllen]

So as the remainers expected we stay in the EU but not in name.

Two tier EU coming.

[NotAllThere]

In name, if not actually in practice, We don’t become a region within the United States of Europe.

FTFY.

[PurpleGorilla]

UK to accept EU rules automatically after Brexit

FTFY.

But we'll still have to accept ECJ rulings, EU regulations without having any say in them, we won't be able to have a FTA with the USA (due to being unable to diverge our regulations from the EU), and we'll pay to access the Single Market (either cash, or by accepting FoM, or by losing services access).

Fine