What are the odds?

[eek]

84G, p3.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2.../made/data.pdf

and this is the spreadsheet format that should be used

Employment intermediaries report template (CSV) - GOV.UK

note the (end client) information that isn’t asked for or reported.

[technobabble]

Agencies

The OP didn't mention agencies, so I would say in that instance the chance is low, as there will just be an increase in PAYE and NIC receipts and HMRC will not know there is a change in the underlying arrangements

Reading that HMRC doc it applies to agencies, so where agencies are making those returns then HMRC will have detailed records to use to target providers.

The interesting question is how many / what % of agencies are complying and sending those returns to HMRC? I suspect that the larger ones are but not the smaller more dodgy ones.

[sira]

I suspect they may go after contractors who've been around a long time and/or anyone who's stayed in the same gig for many years as they will represent the biggest financial tax gain.

Smaller joe bloggs may be targeted several years down the line.

[eek]

I suspect they may go after contractors who've been around a long time and/or anyone who's stayed in the same gig for many years as they will represent the biggest financial tax gain.

Smaller joe bloggs may be targeted several years down the line.

Time limits stop HMRC from going after people several years down the line.

That's why HMRC will go on fishing trips to see who willingly pays up (as they don't have that long to do so) and then chase those similar (i.e. worked in the same place) to the ones who paid up.

For reference if you fill in your tax return correctly HMRC have 1 year from you tax return being submitted and while it's likely HMRC won't kick things off immediately to recover money from 2019/20 they will need to have everything under way by mid 2021.

[krytonsheep]

note the (end client) information that isn’t asked for or reported.

Sounds like HMRC have got no idea where contractors are currently working then? Unless they do an IR35 investigation in to the client, which is what happened at GSK.

[JoJoGabor]

As said above if you are working for a large client who have loads of contractors I suspect there is a higher chance you may get a fishing letter or an investigation. I'd put it at 50 - 60%

If you're working for a small company with a handful of contractors, I'd put it as low as 5%.

Of course with an outside to inside conversion doing the same role, you pretty much have 0 defence.

At least currently the chances of investigation are low and the chances of HMRC winning is also low.

[GhostofTarbera]

As said above if you are working for a large client who have loads of contractors I suspect there is a higher chance you may get a fishing letter or an investigation. I'd put it at 50 - 60%

If you're working for a small company with a handful of contractors, I'd put it as low as 5%.

Of course with an outside to inside conversion doing the same role, you pretty much have 0 defence.

At least currently the chances of investigation are low and the chances of HMRC winning is also low.

Not really, a good percentage of people will panic and just pay up


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

[eek]

Not really, a good percentage of people will panic and just pay up


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

And that's all that HMRC will want - some minion will proudly talk about £xm additionally raised when he comes up for promotion....

[Snooky]

For reference if you fill in your tax return correctly HMRC have 1 year from you tax return being submitted and while it's likely HMRC won't kick things off immediately to recover money from 2019/20 they will need to have everything under way by mid 2021.

Being slightly pernickety - AIUI, they have one year from the final tax submission deadline for a tax year (31 Jan), so for tax year 2019/20 they can issue an enquiry any time from receiving your 2019/20 tax return up to & including 31 Jan 2022.

Happy to proven wrong though.

[CompoundOverload]

As said above if you are working for a large client who have loads of contractors I suspect there is a higher chance you may get a fishing letter or an investigation. I'd put it at 50 - 60%

If you're working for a small company with a handful of contractors, I'd put it as low as 5%.

Of course with an outside to inside conversion doing the same role, you pretty much have 0 defence.

At least currently the chances of investigation are low and the chances of HMRC winning is also low.

Based on this - https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ge-though.html

7. Since the introduction of the public sector reform, and during consultations, the Government has listened to the views of stakeholders. On the basis of their feedback, it can confirm:
• The reform is not retrospective. As was the case in the public sector, HMRC will focus on ensuring businesses comply with the reform for new engagements, rather than focusing on historic
cases

Retro checks are not being looked into....