Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370: The most probable facts

[OwlHoot]

Sudden movement of mass outside these limits can render the plane unstable and uncontrollable, resulting in stall. There was a case recently of a load of army ground assets breaking loose towards the back during takeoff in Afghanistan and the 747 cargo (?) entered a steep climb, then stalled into the ground killing all crew. It's on youtube.

Hmm, yes, that was another slight objection that later occurred to me. If a ten ton crate suddenly started sliding backwards in the cargo hold, causing the plane to climb, then that would obviously start a vicious circle, unless the crate encountered an obstacle that stopped it sliding back any further and the pilot then managed to level off.

The military plane in that Afghanistan incident presumably had a rear cargo door, and the load simply carried on sliding backward until the plane's centre of mass (or bouyancy or whatever it is called) was beyond recovery.

[hyperD]

Hmm, yes, that was another slight objection that later occurred to me. If a ten ton crate suddenly started sliding backwards in the cargo hold, causing the plane to climb, then that would obviously start a vicious circle, unless the crate encountered an obstacle that stopped it sliding back any further and the pilot then managed to level off.

The military plane in that Afghanistan incident presumably had a rear cargo door, and the load simply carried on sliding backward until the plane's centre of mass (or bouyancy or whatever it is called) was beyond recovery.

When the plane's CoG shifts beyond safe limits, it becomes impossible for any elevator deflection to adjust and control the aircraft's pitch. In the case of the 747 Cargo, the assets broke lose on take-off, shifted to the rear, put the CoG to the rear so any forward deflection of the elevator was ineffective. The plane was low and slow, most critical part of the flight. Full power, full deflection would have done nothing, the crew had no chance.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

C of G has been a cause of a number of incidents - it's taken very seriously on loading. Whilst that alleged climb could in theory have been caused by shifting cargo, one wonders how much it would have shifted in cruise even if unsecured. It's also possible, even likely, that the hold could have been full of containers/pallets, so that they couldn't move forward/aft.

It's more credible than the idea of climbing to put out a fire :-) though.

[Uncle Albert]

Have they checked to see if the pilot or co-pilot were amateur photographers? Camera trouble led to RAF Voyager grounding, investigation finds - 3/19/2014 - Flight Global

With the aircraft’s autopilot engaged and while its co-pilot was away from the cockpit in the forward galley, crew members reported feeling a sudden “jolt”, before encountering a sensation of weightlessness as the aircraft rapidly entered a nose-down attitude. “The resulting negative g forces were sufficient for almost all of the unrestrained passengers and crew to be thrown towards the ceiling, resulting in a number of minor injuries,” the report says. “The co-pilot struck the cabin roof, but was able to re-enter the flight-deck through the open door,” it adds.

"a nose down attitude"

[doodab]

Back to the gold bullion theory ..

China has seemed from the outset extremely agitated about the fate of the plane. For example, it is currently conducting a detailed search over wide areas of its territory.

That makes me wonder if their concern isn't for something more than a couple of dozen Chinese citizens, something perhaps more like pallette loads of gold bars destined for China.

Could it be that the sudden climb to 40,000 feet was due to these pallettes suddenly breaking loose and lurching towards the back of the hold, like that gold in the coach at the end of The Italian Job?

I mean, seriously (for any aviation experts), could a sudden significant shift in the centre of mass like that cause major disruption, or would the pilot or autopilot easily correct it?

Playing devil's advocate with this "theory", one could argue that if the pallettes survived take off then they would be unlikely to shift in level flight, ..

edit: unless during the flight someone deliberately unsecured them for some reason (see post below)

Is there any evidence that there was a lot of gold bullion on board?

A stack of gold just 1m on a side would weigh nearly 20 tons. Which is a significant chunk of the carrying capacity of the plane. A 777 freighter might be able to carry 5 of them, tops. It's also worth around $800mln per pallet.

Why would the Chinese government entrust that sort of value in gold to a commercial passenger flight when they could send their own military transport?

Commonsense says they wouldn't.

[MicrosoftBob]

Is there any evidence that there was a lot of gold bullion on board?

A stack of gold just 1m on a side would weigh nearly 20 tons. Which is a significant chunk of the carrying capacity of the plane. A 777 freighter might be able to carry 5 of them, tops. It's also worth around $800mln per pallet.

Why would the Chinese government entrust that sort of value in gold to a commercial passenger flight when they could send their own military transport?

Commonsense says they wouldn't.

There is no evidence, it's more plausible that the Chinese government want to (at least publically appear to) air concern for their passengers on the flight

[MarillionFan]

Gold bullion FFS. Where do you get this crap from?

I heard that the plane was carrying straw and that one of the stolen passports was given to a man whose real name was Mr R Stiltskin who by accident found himself in the hold with a magic sewing kit. The rest they say is history.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

I heard that the plane was carrying straw and that one of the stolen passports was given to a man whose real name was Mr R Stiltskin who by accident found himself in the hold with a magic sewing kit. The rest they say is history.

Don't tell Suity or OH this :-)

[doodab]

I heard that the plane was carrying straw and that one of the stolen passports was given to a man whose real name was Mr R Stiltskin who by accident found himself in the hold with a magic sewing kit. The rest they say is history.

Crows? You think it was bought down by a birdstrike?

[OwlHoot]

Gold bullion FFS. Where do you get this crap from?

I heard that the plane was carrying straw and that one of the stolen passports was given to a man whose real name was Mr R Stiltskin who by accident found himself in the hold with a magic sewing kit. The rest they say is history.

Not sure, sasguru probably.

But it didn't have to be gold bars. Maybe it was a hold full of vintage champagne, which started popping when the pressure dropped. The pilots panicked, thinking it was gunfire and the plane had been hijacked, and he turned back immediately. But meanwhile the fumes from the champagne knocked out passengers and crew, and the rest is history (or will be when the plane is found).