UKIP Voting profile

[oracleslave]

I'll PM you an invite to a game if you like. No engines and no tablebases.

Ok. Am on chess.com if that helps.

I don't do engines

[Old Greg]

Ok. Am on chess.com if that helps.

I don't do engines

I don't do chess.com but will set up an account.

[Peoplesoft bloke]

Did anyone actually read the Yougov stuff?

Only 60% of UKIP support comes from former Tories.

As to the Vote X get Y stuff, because of our cockarsed electoral system, in most constituencies it won't matter who you vote for, the incumbent party will win, only the marginals make a difference, and even then, it's extremely rare to have a 3 (or more) way marginal, so for example in a LIB/CON marginal where LAB normally poll 5-10% of the vote, voting UKIP ain't gonna get you a LAB MP.

[Old Greg]

Did anyone actually read the Yougov stuff?

Only 60% of UKIP support comes from former Tories.

As to the Vote X get Y stuff, because of our cockarsed electoral system, in most constituencies it won't matter who you vote for, the incumbent party will win, only the marginals make a difference, and even then, it's extremely rare to have a 3 (or more) way marginal, so for example in a LIB/CON marginal where LAB normally poll 5-10% of the vote, voting UKIP ain't gonna get you a LAB MP.

60% is very significant. CBA to do the sums but this may have a huge effect just on the electoral maths in Tory held or Tory target marginals.

Other considerations:

UKIP may shift the Tories - policy and local candidates - away from the centre, where received wisdom states that elections are won.

UKIP may have an effect on diminishing the local activist base, which is to the right of the Tory party and fervently anti-EU, by and large.

[mos]

Did anyone actually read the Yougov stuff?

Yougov is Zahawi's toy. I do not trust their polls.

[sasguru]

Yougov is Zahawi's toy. I do not trust their polls.

You've got some evidence that their statistical methodology is suspect or is this another example of your low IQ paranoia ?

[mos]

UKIP may have an effect on diminishing the local activist base, which is to the right of the Tory party and fervently anti-EU, by and large.

It depends on who the activists are :nazi:. It would be good if they showed their faces more.
At present they tend to hide behind the keyboards of Daily Wail and Telegraph blogs and terrify more sensitive women and children who happened to stray to those websites.

[d000hg]

because of our cockarsed electoral system, in most constituencies it won't matter who you vote for, the incumbent party will win

They win BECAUSE people vote for them, you make it sound like they win by magic. Every MP gets in because they get the most votes in their constituency, of course.

[ZARDOZ]

Nigel Farrage held a meeting in my local town in the North West. I'm not a UKIP voter, but it was just around the corner from me and wanted to see what the fuss was about and if they could generate any local interest. I was also suspicous of how UKIP is being painted by some.

The town is a CON/LAB marginal. I was quite shocked by how many people were there, was standing room only.

A show of hands indicated about 70% of the audience weren't previously UKIP voters or members.

First thing he said "If you are expecting me to bash foreigners you can leave now". Other than a bit about rights to claim benefits there was nothing about immigration. There were some 2nd generation immigrants in the audience!

Labour had planted some smug stooges in the audience to ask some (as they thought) difficult questions, Farrage remained good humoured but brushed them aside very adeptly. Seems Labour are VERY worried and are adopting this tactic everywhere they can.

Farrage himself is a very impressive and charismatic orator

Didn't really get much into policies other than EU vote, Rescinding green taxes, trading with commonwealth countries rather than EU.

He recieved a standing ovation.


Left feeling they will be a MAJOR political force if they develop their policies some more. Can't say I would vote for them....yet.

[Doggy Styles]

UKIP's old profile means that once their current supporters die off, they'll probably wither and die too.

Ah, no.

If age is the yardstick, it's the demographic rather than specific people, and churn happens. Todays voters would get older and become the new UKIP voters.