Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370: The Theories

[Zippy]

I don't believe that you can just turn off the transponders on a plane that size and it just goes invisible to the whole world, maybe to the Malaysians but probably not to the Chinese and certainly not to the Americans.

A radar system of any complexity would cross reference the signals and a plane switching this off would be flagged, it would be one of the first things you would make it do, certainly post 9/11. They know what happened and are keeping quiet.

(mostly) WHS. There is a game in play. I don't know what it is but there is one.

[suityou01]

(mostly) WHS. There is a game in play. I don't know what it is but there is one.

Yuh-huh.

And this game will result in a nuke being dropped.

[minestrone]

Not a chance it is the Iranians suity.

I am not one for conspiracies but if it is a hijack I would think this was internal Chinese terrorism. I would think the Chinese were always in the know, the Americans were always in the know which the Chinese probably know and the stuff about the engines was us telling the Chinese that we know.

[hyperD]

I read somewhere they have to turn them off at the airports, or there are too many planes all sending signals. They switch them on once they're up and away.

They turn them off at the gate to stop a large amount of non-movement signal noise being sent. Transponders are normally activated when the a/c gets clearance to start a engine start/pushback - ground radar needs to see identifiable a/c movements, especially in a crowded place like Heathrow.

The reason why transponders are switch-able on/off is that it's useful while in the air to deactivate devices on certain electrical buses that are malfunctioning or surging to prevent an electrical fire for example especially if it's taking an abnormal electrical load. Most/all devices have circuit breakers.

Also, when I've been asked to change transponder codes by ATC, the device is switched to standby mode, the new code is entered and the transponder switched back to ON/ALT in order to stop inadvertently transmitting any of the 7xxx emergency codes wile cycling. Modern transponders in commercials don't need to do this. In private flying, I've never had to switch a transponder on whilst on the ground, only set it to standby until I contact Farnborough LARS, for example, and they give me a code.

[Zippy]

Yuh-huh.

And this game will result in a nuke being dropped.

Assuming the bad guys can lay their hands on several megatons of gunpowder and the world's largest stick. The plane is probably out of commission.
The game is around the politics of the situation and who actually took it down.
The Malaysians releasd info about this time last week that the plane had headed in a different direction. And, I suspect, were promptly told to shut up and deny it, which is now why they are perceived as a bit amateurish.
If it wasn't for the fact that 250 people have almost certainly bought the farm it would be a very entertaining problem to solve,

[hyperD]

I don't believe that you can just turn off the transponders on a plane that size and it just goes invisible to the whole world, maybe to the Malaysians but probably not to the Chinese and certainly not to the Americans.

A radar system of any complexity would cross reference the signals and a plane switching this off would be flagged, it would be one of the first things you would make it do, certainly post 9/11. They know what happened and are keeping quiet.

The transponder code is used to identify an aircraft on civil radar systems, when that's switched off, all the useful stuff like altitude information/callsign/track are removed from the screen and because most of the stuff on an ATC's screen is highly processed, it's likely that no contact point is even displayed.

Military radar is generally primary and although the bearing and distance of the target can then be converted into a ground position for display to the ATC, altitude is not normally measured. Military a/c carry transponders which can convey altitude info when enabled.

Although it's theoretically possible to track a civil aircraft using primary radar, clutter, fade-in/out or signal strength make this more difficult. Also I believe the aircraft had transited into a radar "dark zone" at some point compounding the issue.

But I think one of the problems here maybe not the technological difficulties but the difficulty in getting several countries military releasing large amounts of possibly sensitive data to the various international civil bodies.

After my initial query about the availability of ACARS data in my second post, I'm not sure anyone can really speculate to what has actually happened. It really is a very unusual set of circumstances, not helped by journos and the initial poor control of PR by the Malayan official investigative bodies.

[suityou01]

But massively cleared up by my tinfoil hat theories

[minestrone]

The Chinese can follow out subs by satellite, the yanks have been able to detect missiles launched around the world for decades by satellite, I would think it would be fairly easy to make a satellite that could follow air traffic and I would think it would have most certainly been done since 9/11, globally, by the Americans.

I don't think we are ever going to find out what happened to the plane and the "it might have went south" is the get out clause but the Chinese certainly know and the Americans are undoubtedly having a good go at making them very uncomfortable over this. We undoubtedly knew what was going on very early on with the engines and have had some poking at the Chinese as well. As zippy says this is all one big game.

[SantaClaus]

Good morning conspiracy theorists and sky watchers.

Interesting article in The Times of Israel:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370 | The Times of Israel

[eek]

Good morning conspiracy theorists and sky watchers.

Interesting article in The Times of Israel:

Ex-El Al expert: Iran likely involved in MH 370 | The Times of Israel

Personally I like

Keith Ledgerwood

where supposedly the plane traveled across India hidden in the shadow of another 777.....