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oh dear: Thinking of buy-to-let? Do the sums

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    #61
    Ok, this needs an example. Say I want to purchase a two bedroom flat in Edgbaston to let out. I would expect to pay about £170,000 for it at todays prices. At a good tracker repayment mortgage rate, that's about £1000 a month over 20 years if I put down about 10% deposit. Similar rentals in the area are only about £650 per month. This is a poor buy-to-let investment on the face of it, except that the capital amount is gradually being paid off so you could consider it acceptable. The benefit someone mentioned earlier about having the property at the end of the term only works if you have a repayment mortgage.

    However, most buy to let professionals will not be bothered by the capital return, instead they will look at the cost of borrowing versus the rental income. On an interest only mortgage on a 2 year tracker, the monthly payment is about £620. Again a very low yield, but it's not negative. I would be foolish to rely on the capital gain on the property, but many people do take this risk. To make any real money, you need about 7-8% yield at the moment, which is near impossible to find.

    The problem for the rental market is that if there are a lot properties about like this, they will find that rental prices are closely tied to mortgage rates. This never used to be the case because a lot of rentals were owned by career landlords and firms, not ordinary folks. I don't know the stats, but if a lot of people have done the buy-to-let thing as a sideline they may cause problems in the rental market.

    The opportunity for the renter who is looking to buy for themselves is that they could instead of paying rent to a landlord, be paying their rent into a mortgage which (on long term performance) should be exceeded by the capital value of the property in the long run. It only works if you are in it for the long term and are prepared to hang on to the property if the equity goes negative. In the short term, rentals are obviously more flexible, but you are not accumulating any capital.

    eg. If you had purchased a property in 2000 for a mortgage of around £650 a month (ie. current rent rates), you would now have a property which was worth twice as much if you chose to sell it. When you sell it, you return a capital gain.
    It's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. www.areyoupopular.mobi

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by AtW
      However a fked up country like Russia would behaive exactly like you suggest - Moscow's house prices like doubled in 18 months and all of a sudden rents double too sometime this year, no slow increases, no contract protection no nothing, they just double rent: take it or leave it, very much Russian fked up way of doing things, thankfully this kind of crap is not possible here.
      Way Off Track Alexei, but I'm really sorry that Russia has fked up so much. I'm sure it will get it straight and be a superb contributor to world culture (arguably already) and economy. But I'm no longer confident that it will be in my lifetime (I'm 55). I hope it is in yours.

      Clive James once said only half-facetiously that the Bolshevik Revolution saved the western world: if it hadn't been for that, early 20th century russian culture would have taken over the world.

      Comment


        #63
        Originally posted by expat
        I hope it is in yours.
        I wish I could say this, even though I hope to see some fundamental shift in a few decades: main problem is 70 years of communist rule took very hard toll on the nation and the right kind of people either immigrated or degenerated into slaves. And it could have been the best place on earth

        This made me sad now.

        Comment


          #64
          Originally posted by expat
          And if I am looking at SE England for 2 years? Buy or rent?
          Rent. For such a short period, rent is going to be the most reliable option unless you're thinking about a renovation property.

          The overhead cost of buying and selling (legal fees, admin fees, agents fees, stamp duty, removals, house preparation, redecoration etc) will almost certainly exceed the average capital gains on a modest sized property. There is also the inherent risk of negative equity at sale time, which would hit hard if you HAD to sell in a slump period. The risk-reward calculation means it just doesn't make sense to buy and sell over a mere two years. If you were talking 10 years or more, then it would be much more favourable.
          It's my opinion and I'm entitled to it. www.areyoupopular.mobi

          Comment


            #65
            Originally posted by oraclesmith
            Ok, this needs an example.
            Generally agree with your analysis.

            I'll get me coat...

            Comment


              #66
              Originally posted by AtW
              Talking of other sports - it has just occurred to me that it is necessary to prevent cheating in bowling, darts etc by setting up laser beams that could cut off anything going past the line unless its an authorised object (ball or dark).
              Perhaps you could combine the two AtW?
              Columbian problem and Darts!

              If the laser beam you suggest, detects an "unauthorised object" the Dart player would be beheaded!

              Comment


                #67
                Originally posted by AtW
                No its not! That's the real market bit here - people who pay rent simply can't afford to pay much more, because rent is up front, you can't play accounting tricks by say increasing morgage period from 20 to 30 years thus being able to afford more money borrowed.

                Rent in Brum practically did not change from 2000, in fact I'd say it lowered a bit, certainly if you take inflation into account. At the same time house prices doubled, which, if you were right, should have lead to doubling of rents.
                If the value of the property goes up (Yippee!) how does that effect the Landlords Mortgage repayments? ..His borrowing is the same....AtW You miss the point........

                Comment


                  #68
                  Location, Location

                  Originally posted by oraclesmith
                  Rent. For such a short period, rent is going to be the most reliable option unless you're thinking about a renovation property.

                  The overhead cost of buying and selling (legal fees, admin fees, agents fees, stamp duty, removals, house preparation, redecoration etc) will almost certainly exceed the average capital gains on a modest sized property. There is also the inherent risk of negative equity at sale time, which would hit hard if you HAD to sell in a slump period. The risk-reward calculation means it just doesn't make sense to buy and sell over a mere two years. If you were talking 10 years or more, then it would be much more favourable.

                  I would agree for a first timer and if all areas in the UK were equal....But
                  Investment areas are everywhere. In the South.....Medway Towns for example...With the Investment going into this area it makes sense for investment in properties as the expected increase could be up to 6/7% in this year alone. And current prices are well below the Stamp duty freshold
                  e.g
                  Gillingham, Kent
                  Current average price for a flat: £81,800
                  Predicted% price increase for 2006: 6%
                  Set to benefit from the massive Thames Gateway development backed by £97m from the Government

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Originally posted by Phoenix
                    If the value of the property goes up (Yippee!) how does that effect the Landlords Mortgage repayments?
                    Can prices go much higher than they are now? I don't think so because overstretching is everwhere and mere few %s added to interest rates would bankrupt half of home owners in this country: +1% interest on average house morgage of £200k is extra £160 per month - very high amount for families who already have to pay higher council tax, higher fuel costs, higher everything and such family never had any serious savings to weather it.

                    Comment


                      #70
                      Originally posted by AtW
                      Can prices go much higher than they are now? I don't think so because overstretching is everwhere and mere few %s added to interest rates would bankrupt half of home owners in this country: +1% interest on average house morgage of £200k is extra £160 per month - very high amount for families who already have to pay higher council tax, higher fuel costs, higher everything and such family never had any serious savings to weather it.

                      You call 5% high????? My God you are young !

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