Twitter IPO

[jamesbrown]

Twitter is an absolute punt on the fundamentals, reminiscent of the dotcom boom. But that doesn't mean you can't make money from stagging the shares or even from holding them long-term and gambling on their current rapid rate of earnings growth to continue. Afterall, Facebook also didn't look too clever until recently. There's a couple of things that put me off, though. First, I don't like investing in businesses where the fundamentals require such a high degree of extrapolation and assumption, and this puts me off a long-term investment. Second, as a retail investor, you're at a strong disadvantage in terms of stagging the shares, and will have to wait until these shares hit the open market, already at a considerable premium on the IPO price (which will, itself, likely rise considerably between now and actual IPO). So, even though the current IPO pricing is somewhat tempting relative to the market froth (not the fundamentals), I won't be investing myself.

[MaryPoppins]

Too much noise. Not enough signal. It's a conduit for mindless drivel.

Absolutely +1

[russell]

Twitter is an absolute punt on the fundamentals, reminiscent of the dotcom boom. But that doesn't mean you can't make money from stagging the shares or even from holding them long-term and gambling on their current rapid rate of earnings growth to continue. Afterall, Facebook also didn't look too clever until recently. There's a couple of things that put me off, though. First, I don't like investing in businesses where the fundamentals require such a high degree of extrapolation and assumption, and this puts me off a long-term investment. Second, as a retail investor, you're at a strong disadvantage in terms of stagging the shares, and will have to wait until these shares hit the open market, already at a considerable premium on the IPO price (which will, itself, likely rise considerably between now and actual IPO). So, even though the current IPO pricing is somewhat tempting relative to the market froth (not the fundamentals), I won't be investing myself.

Of course it's taking on some risk which I am comfortable with. If you don't want a punt (any risk) then you will also limit your rewards, you may as well buy US bonds and be happy with your tiny return. Twitter is not going to go under in the next few years and it has potential to make huge amounts of profit in advertising and selling its firehose for analysis, it has limited costs due to the content all being generated by users.

[jamesbrown]

Of course it's taking on some risk which I am comfortable with. If you don't want a punt (any risk) then you will also limit your rewards, you may as well buy US bonds and be happy with your tiny return. Twitter is not going to go under in the next few years and it has potential to make huge amounts of profit in advertising and selling its firehose for analysis, it has limited costs due to the content all being generated by users.

Punt implies a high level of risk, which is exactly what this is. If your target price is $100, you are indeed a Billy Bunter.

[AtW]

Too much noise. Not enough signal. It's a conduit for mindless drivel.

And how that affects ethics in any way?