Clarkson for PM?

[sasguru]

very quick google

BBC News - Casualties on 20mph roads up by quarter in 2011

but research is inconclusive as they don't know proportion of 20mph roads in 2011 compared to 2010.

Exactly. If the number of 20 mph zones rose in a time period, you'd expect the absolute number of fatalities to rise.
What we need is fatalities per mile of road in 20 mph versus 30 mph zones (i.e. a rate not an absolute number).
But we don't have that data.
And it's a distinction that sadly most innumerate journalists wouldn't be able to comprehend.

[TheFaQQer]

You'd also need to know how many of those 20mph roads are 20mph zones and how many are 20mph limits, which are very different.

[sasguru]

You'd also need to know how many of those 20mph roads are 20mph zones and how many are 20mph limits, which are very different.

Quite. The evidence (in Holland) shows traffic calming measures + 20 mph "zones" rather than limits, significantly reduce casualties.

[Old Greg]

Exactly. If the number of 20 mph zones rose in a time period, you'd expect the absolute number of fatalities to rise.
What we need is fatalities per mile of road in 20 mph versus 30 mph zones (i.e. a rate not an absolute number).
But we don't have that data.
And it's a distinction that sadly most innumerate journalists wouldn't be able to comprehend.

What we need to know is the effect of changing 30 mph roads to 20 mph roads. If the driver for changing a given road from 30 to 20 is that it is dangerous, then it is feasible that 20 mph roads could have higher casualty / fatality rates than 30 mph roads, but that reducing the speed limit is still an effective measure.

[Mich the Tester]

Why are you discussing serious things in a thread about Clarkson becoming PM?

Although yes of course yes the Greens are now in effect Britain's socialist party, this is more due to them being arts graduates.

The evidence is that 20 mph speed limits actually increase road deaths.

One reason for this is that a fast road with lots of Audi drivers showing off their penis replacements is clearly dangerous and thus avoided by pedestrians. A 20 Mph road feels safer, even though of course some prats are breaking the limit.

The reason is this an arts grad thing, rather than strictly speaking a green thing is that they are flatly refusing to change their view in spite of evidence because their emotional response to speed is hate, rather than for the poor sods who die or lose limbs.

The difference between science and art is that art is about the artist feeling good about himself, science is about what is really going on here, which often doesn't make you feel better at all.

Link?

Perhaps you could point to the evidence about 20 mph speed limits increasing deaths, rather than being an artist feeling good about yourself by talking bollux?

very quick google

BBC News - Casualties on 20mph roads up by quarter in 2011

but research is inconclusive as they don't know proportion of 20mph roads in 2011 compared to 2010.

For the figures to be meaningful, you'd need to know:

- how many 20mph roads exist in the UK?
- what is their percentage increase?
- how long are they?
- how many people use them?

which DafT don't know.

Exactly. If the number of 20 mph zones rose in a time period, you'd expect the absolute number of fatalities to rise.
What we need is fatalities per mile of road in 20 mph versus 30 mph zones (i.e. a rate not an absolute number).
But we don't have that data.
And it's a distinction that sadly most innumerate journalists wouldn't be able to comprehend.

You'd also need to know how many of those 20mph roads are 20mph zones and how many are 20mph limits, which are very different.

Quite. The evidence (in Holland) shows traffic calming measures + 20 mph "zones" rather than limits, significantly reduce casualties.

What we need to know is the effect of changing 30 mph roads to 20 mph roads. If the driver for changing a given road from 30 to 20 is that it is dangerous, then it is feasible that 20 mph roads could have higher casualty / fatality rates than 30 mph roads, but that reducing the speed limit is still an effective measure.

[sasguru]

What we need to know is the effect of changing 30 mph roads to 20 mph roads. If the driver for changing a given road from 30 to 20 is that it is dangerous, then it is feasible that 20 mph roads could have higher casualty / fatality rates than 30 mph roads, but that reducing the speed limit is still an effective measure.

Indeed. But I fear that by now your average journalist would have written down whatever bollux was in his pea-sized brain for consumption as God-given truth by cretins like vetran.

[NigelJK]

And still no justification as to why a pedestrian is in the road in the first place. Bring back the Green cross code and sack the 'Speed Kills' campaign.

[Old Greg]

Indeed. But I fear that by now your average journalist would have written down whatever bollux was in his pea-sized brain for consumption as God-given truth by cretins like vetran.

You may as well say crash helmets are dangerous because RTA fatalities are disproportionately (when considering no. of miles travelled) likely to be wearing them.

However, I am but a humble Arts graduate, so I am not to be heeded.

[amcdonald]

And still no justification as to why a pedestrian is in the road in the first place. Bring back the Green cross code and sack the 'Speed Kills' campaign.

Because he's stuck in the chicken that's trying to cross the road ?

[pjclarke]

Indeed - you have to control for all variables. There was an example in the book Freakonomics of a US City mayor claiming the credit for a reduction in murders due to an increase in police numbers. Turned out the ambulance service had also been improved and more crime victims were getting to hospital rather than dying before they could be reached, and once you controlled for this the murder rate was unchanged.

The result that lower speeds are more dangerous is highly counter-intuitive. I'd love to see the data. Certainly when speed cameras were switched off in Oxfordshire, they were switched on again 8 months later after road deaths rose by 50%...

Oh, and add one to the 'Clarkson is an arse' vote.