For those in London....

[BoredBloke]

Have they got a graph that goes further back? That one looks like it starts at the bottom of a dip making the line of best fit look more extreme.

[DimPrawn]

Have they got a graph that goes further back? That one looks like it starts at the bottom of a dip making the line of best fit look more extreme.

No the data only goes back to 1979 (when the satellite was launched).

[sasguru]

...Anyone died of heat exhaustion yet?

Summer heatwaves could turn London into 'isle of death' by 2080 | Metro News

Central London is probably worse, but in the Home counties it is uncomfortably muggy and humid.
Forecast 30C tomorrow. Highly unusual and unpredictable weather just like for the last 3 years

[DimPrawn]

Central London is probably worse, but in the Home counties it is uncomfortably muggy and humid.
Forecast 30C tomorrow. Highly unusual and unpredictable weather just like for the last 3 years

Yes, because we've never seen such things before the term "carbon credit" was invented have we?

[sasguru]

Yes, because we've never seen such things before the term "carbon credit" was invented have we?

You heard of Bayes?

The way it works is this (I've left out the complicated maths):

Step 1: You have a prior belief, doesn't matter how ridiculous it is.
Step 2: You get some evidence and it changes your prior belief (the maths is here based on probability densities).
Step 3: You have an amended belief based on the data altering your prior (your posterior)

repeat, your posterior becoming your new prior.

Some think this is a good epistemological approach since it chimes with general empirical approaches and the Kuhnian revolutionary paradigm.

You haven't moved beyond Step 1 and hence your conclusions are ridiculous.


HTH.

ps. As an aside you were wondering why your rate has been declining in real terms for a decade.
My prior was that you were thick. The evidence keeps coming that my initial impression was right.
So my posterior belief is that you are even thicker than I thought. As well as having a large posterior.

[shaunbhoy]

So my posterior belief is

...that talking out of my arse somehow makes sense.

HTH BIDI

sasguru

[DimPrawn]

You heard of Bayes?

The way it works is this (I've left out the complicated maths):

Step 1: You have a prior belief, doesn't matter how ridiculous it is.
Step 2: You get some evidence and it changes your prior belief (the maths is here based on probability densities).
Step 3: You have an amended belief based on the data altering your prior (your posterior)

repeat, your posterior becoming your new prior.

Some think this is a good epistemological approach since it chimes with general empirical approaches and the Kuhnian revolutionary paradigm.

You haven't moved beyond Step 1 and hence your conclusions are ridiculous.


HTH.

ps. As an aside you were wondering why your rate has been declining in real terms for a decade.
My prior was that you were thick. The evidence keeps coming that my initial impression was right.
So my posterior belief is that you are even thicker than I thought. As well as having a large posterior.

A picture is worth a 1000 words.

[sasguru]

A picture is worth a 1000 words.

Yes that is rather a good description of you as you get poorer by the day.

[sasguru]

...that talking out of my arse somehow makes sense.

HTH BIDI

sasguru

I know you're not as stupid as you seem. You might enjoy this book:


THE THEORY THAT WOULD NOT DIE
How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines and Emerged Triumphant From Two Centuries of Controversy
By Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

I found it frustrating because there was not enough detail, but its a good overview for the mathematically challenged

[Old Hack]

I found it frustrating because there was not enough pictures

I thought you were busy working today