Arctic ice melting at 'amazing' speed

[pjclarke]

ORLY?

From the GreenPeace article:

That is why a group of researchers on board the Greenpeace ship Arctic Sunrise are using cutting-edge technologies to scan the 3D profile of ice floes this month. The researchers are led by leading sea ice scientist Professor Peter Wadhams from the University of Cambridge.

From the BBC article

The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) is at the forefront of Arctic research and its international director, Kim Holmen, told the BBC that the speed of the melting was faster than expected. The institute has been deploying its icebreaker, Lance, to research conditions between Svalbard and Greenland - the main route through which ice flows out of the Arctic Ocean.

The Greenpeace mission seems to have different staff and be on a completely different boat. Can you explain that please?

Besides, it is possible to be a member of Greenpeace and a good scientist. Shock. Here are some other non-Greenpeace organisations...

Arctic sea ice falls below 4 million square kilometers | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis
Polar Sea Ice Cap and Snow - Cryosphere Today
Arctic sea ice just hit a record low. Here’s why it matters.
NASA - Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks To New Low In Satellite Era

[EternalOptimist]

It is not possible to trust Greenpeace on matters such as these as you know fine well. One of their proudest boasts is that it's not the truth that matters, but what people believe.

i.e. propoganda

[EternalOptimist]

According to the OP , there is 4 m km2 of ice, which is 1% down on last year.
and the 'scientists' say they could never have envisaged this a few years ago

but they are not telling the truth,
a few years ago they predicted it would ALL be gone, not 1%


they rely on us having short or no memories

[pjclarke]

Your opinion is noted. Doesn't alter the fact that the research that started the thread has nothing to do with Greenpeace, and that NASA, the US Snow and Ice Data Centre, the University of Illinois Polar Research Group (etc, etc) are all saying the same thing ....

[EternalOptimist]

Do I detect a hint of agreement between you and Greenpeace ?

The truth does not matter ? It's what people believe that matters ?

[BlasterBates]

If the Antarctic ice was melting then surely you would be seeing this reflected in accelerating sea level rises:

Sea Level Trend

Consensus on Antarcic meltdown breaks down

I posted this comment from Professor Judith Curry before, but I´ll post it again because it highlights the religious nature of the debate.

In earlier times, future apocalypses were articulated by religious ‘seers.’ In the 20th century, science and models are driving apocalyptic predictions. On one hand, increasing understanding of the natural world and social systems should improve the basis for such predictions. On the other hand, this improved understanding and the explosion of numerical modeling and predictions provides fuel for the technically grounded apocaholics.

Apocalypse not (?) | Climate Etc.

[pjclarke]

If the Antarctic ice was melting then surely you would be seeing this reflected in accelerating sea level rises:

It is and you can

Increasing rates of ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets revealed by GRACE
A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise

[Scoobos]

I have a lot of respect for EO on these forums, but the first line of your "discrediting link" clearly says:

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

It's hardly lets throw it all away, everyone's just using propoganda; is it? ....

[escapeUK]

Do I detect a hint of agreement between you and Greenpeace ?

The truth does not matter ? It's what people believe that matters ?

In my experience neither matters. In modern life we are the centre of our own universe.

[pjclarke]

It was clearly a Conditional prediction.

“At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.

Now, he was writing at the end of the 2007 ice melt season, when the ice extent fell precipitously.

http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_sea...embertrend.jpg

Zwally was observing that, should the summer ice cover continue to decline at that rate every year, then a nearly ice free Arctic was just 5 years off. We now know that the 2007 decline was an outlier, helped along by anomalous wind patterns and the rate of change has actually reverted back nearer to its long term trend, in other words the decrease did not continue at that rate, up until this year, at least.

So Zwally said IF the rate of change in 2007 was repeated Then the Arctic COULD be nearly ice free in summer 2012. His condition has not been met and so we will not see the second half of his prediction transpire. All reasonable stuff from a reasonable scientist.

The Arctic Ice prediction that wasn't is as real as the Greenpeace research that wasn't. We must be due for the 'snowfall will be a thing of the past' misquote from a 12 year old newspaper soon, surely?