House prices rise 0.4% to end year where they began

[AtW]

The UK housing market has ended a volatile 2010 roughly where it began, after Nationwide reported a surprise 0.4% rise in house prices in December. But prices are expected to fall in the early part of the New Year.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the price of the average UK home reversed the declines seen in October and November. This means the average house now costs £162,763, compared with £162,103 at the end of 2009.

Economists had expected Nationwide to report another monthly decline. Its chief economist, Martin Gahbauer, warned that the market remained fragile.

More of this pseudo-economical tulip from the source: House prices rise to end year where they began, reports Nationwide | Business | The Guardian



Freezing December, people staying in doors - months of falling house prices, and yet they somehow come up with suprise price increase... gotto love those seasonal adjustments!!!

Stalin would have blushed with this sort of statistics!

[shaunbhoy]

Boomed!!!!!

[monobrow]

Nationwide reported a surprise 0.4% rise in house prices in December

Estate agents are about the only cretins you should trust less than recruitment agents. the ONLY data worth looking at is land registry data.

There is loads about this on the internet, so I won't bore you with it, but heres a useful article

[Freamon]

Freezing December, people staying in doors - months of falling house prices, and yet they somehow come up with suprise price increase... gotto love those seasonal adjustments!!!

Stalin would have blushed with this sort of statistics!

Seasonal adjustment is a pretty reliable statistical methodology which is used in thousands of well-regarded and accepted statistical publications worldwide. As the name suggests, it's intended to smooth out seasonal variations to give an underlying trend, and does a pretty good job. Relying on it to do this is pretty safe really.

What's not safe, of course, is to infer a trend from a single month's figures. Given the Nationwide survey has shown falls for about 6 months in a row before this release, it's far too early to say that the trend is no longer downwards.

[Freamon]

Estate agents are about the only cretins you should trust less than recruitment agents. the ONLY data worth looking at is land registry data.

Estate agents? Nationwide are a Building Society - they get their data from prices agreed on transactions for which they are the mortgage lender. Not really anything to do with trusting estate agents or otherwise, although I think we can all agree estate agents are pretty untrustworthy.

As for the Land Registry, the correlation between the Nationwide and LR data is pretty good. Using the trend of one to predict the trend of the other is fairly safe. Using a single month of data from one to predict a single month of data from the other is probably fairly unsafe.

[Fred Bloggs]

The trend needs to be flat prices for at least the next 10 years if the ohusing market is ever to get back to its lonbg term affordability. Prices of property in the UK are simply insane by and large.

[Iron Condor]

Freezing December, people staying in doors - months of falling house prices, and yet they somehow come up with suprise price increase...

Decembers figures are mortages completed in december, but the houses were probably viewed in October or November as there is a lag of a few weeks to get the survey done and another month for completion etc.

House prices nationally in the UK are down 20% from peak since 2007 in nominal terms.
Then take off another 10% for inflation since 2007.
So house prices in the UK are currently down 30% from peak inflation adjusted.
By 2015 they will be half price

[TimberWolf]

By 2015 they will be half price

Unfortunately so will any savings left in the bank.

[centurian]

Estate agents are about the only cretins you should trust less than recruitment agents. the ONLY data worth looking at is land registry data.

At least land registry data is based upon actual sales. After all the price of any asset is what you can get for it - not what you want to get for it.

However, even that has been subject to manipulation over the past decade. Estate agents / developers would bump up the price, yet give the buyer a discount, but the sale is recorded at the full price (the discount was done as a cashback deal), so gives the illusion that house prices are rising, so the next set of buyers coming along think they need to snap up properties quickly.

[AtW]

At least land registry data is based upon actual sales. After all the price of any asset is what you can get for it - not what you want to get for it.

Yeah boll0x it is - I've seen plenty of ads when building companies would give you free car and free that if you buy their flat/house! I am not sure land registry would take this into account, something that is effectively off the books discount!!!