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Math's Puzzle : Odds

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    #1

    Math's Puzzle : Odds

    Hello folks.

    Would someone be able to provide an answer to this for me please ?

    If 300 people were in a masssive room, and only 65 of those people were called "John" :

    What would be the odds of me walking in to that room, silently tapping 65 people on the back, who then leave the room, and outside, they ALL honestly declare, that they are called "John" ?

    Any takers ?
    Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

    C.S. Lewis
    Tags: None
    #2
    that'd be

    65/300 x 64/299 x 63/298 ...
    Insanity: repeating the same actions, but expecting different results.
    threadeds website, and here's my blog.

    Comment

      #3
      Originally posted by threaded View Post
      that'd be

      65/300 x 64/299 x 63/298 ...
      Thank you Threaded !

      I best get Excel fired up and write a formula.

      I'll probably do it like this.

      65/300 = j1
      64/299 = j2
      63/298 = j3
      drag down

      total = j1xj2xj3xetc

      Cheers !
      Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

      C.S. Lewis

      Comment

        #4
        And it works out at

        1.43565E-67

        Hmmmmm.
        Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

        C.S. Lewis

        Comment

          #5
          Ok, so were are talking beyond the realms of winning the lottery here. Which is 14 million or so to 1 I believe.

          Can anyone suggest how to put those odds in to perspective for the layperson to understand ?

          Eg, chance of an asteroid hitting the Earth, or chance of a monkey writing the complete works of Mr Shakespeare in one sitting, or whatever ?

          (I can feel someone saying the chance of X saying something sensible coming on here....)
          Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

          C.S. Lewis

          Comment

            #6
            Reciprocal.
            Insanity: repeating the same actions, but expecting different results.
            threadeds website, and here's my blog.

            Comment

              #7
              Originally posted by threaded View Post
              Reciprocal.
              Huh ?

              Okies, off to google we go....
              Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

              C.S. Lewis

              Comment

                #8
                Originally posted by Board Game Geek View Post
                Huh ?

                Okies, off to google we go....
                You need to take the reciprocal so it becomes 1 chance in ...

                It's a "balls from bag" problem, so that's what you need to google for.
                Insanity: repeating the same actions, but expecting different results.
                threadeds website, and here's my blog.

                Comment

                  #9
                  Riiiiiiiiiiggggght !

                  So, when bloke in chip shop asks me "So, what was the odds of you picking out thos 65 blokes called 'John' ", I am supposed to reply "It's reciprocal, mate".

                  At which point he will either deck me, or order curry sauce for his chips and pontificate on life, the universe and everything, and go home, throw away all his football paraphernalia, and either join a monastery or take up an OU course on pure or applied maths ?
                  Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

                  C.S. Lewis

                  Comment

                    #10
                    Ah balls in bags, I know that one from a magic trick I have, didn't make the link, thank you.

                    Reciprocal is such a wishy washy answer though, particularly for a layperson.

                    1 in 300 billion billion billion (as a guess) is a bit more appropriate though. It's
                    close enough.

                    Thank you !
                    Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

                    C.S. Lewis

                    Comment

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