I'm not a quant or an economist, but the way I see it the fundamental problems are simple: Government and personal debts are both substantial, and have been getting bigger at an accelerating rate even during times of growth.
Those simple facts were there for all to see a few years ago (and some on CUK have commented on it), but there were so many vested interests that they were largely ignored. The likes of Vince Cable (and, it appears, Menelaus) were shouted down.
To compete with each other in this environment, banks ventured into higher and higher risk lending, and we all know what happened. We are now at the point where people think "saving the banks" has resolved the problems.
However, the current "revival" can only be a blip because the fundamental problems are still there, and they are getting worse.
Those simple facts were there for all to see a few years ago (and some on CUK have commented on it), but there were so many vested interests that they were largely ignored. The likes of Vince Cable (and, it appears, Menelaus) were shouted down.
To compete with each other in this environment, banks ventured into higher and higher risk lending, and we all know what happened. We are now at the point where people think "saving the banks" has resolved the problems.
However, the current "revival" can only be a blip because the fundamental problems are still there, and they are getting worse.
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