False dawn?

[SuperZ]

Oh ar**. That figure is not based on any opinion of others, it is my own hunch and feeling. However, if others are quoting the same figure then i guess the "shoe shine boy" effect takes precedence. So in Met Office style I am revamping my prediction, 3000 here we come


Just kidding, I do think the market is in for a good run, however, I am watching closely and will change my mind if certain things occur but for now I see 5500 as entirely possible by end of year or earlier.

We should all fear a return to 3500, I think that would be a very bad sign.

[Menelaus]

The computer says no.

For once, I agree with sasguru.

Computer says "you're having a larf"

[TriggerHippy]

For once, I agree with sasguru.

Computer says "you're having a larf"

WHS + 1

[Fred Bloggs]

I was saying 5000 by year end but that seems a bit low now. 5500 seems possible I suppose the guys in red braces will be looking for that to boost their year end bonuses too.

[BrilloPad]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aJH1WYX3.Cm4

Are we really coming out of recession? Or is this a false dawn?

One day proves nothing.

But I say false dawn.

Where is the poll?

[Scary]

The situation hasn't changed from a year ago except that debt levels are much higher. Commercial Real Estate is about to implode (or is imploding) in the US and China's false boom is going to get found out. OTOH it's easy to underestimate how long govt/investment banks can keep a bubble inflated, go short to early and you will be squeezed.

[SuperZ]

The situation hasn't changed from a year ago except that debt levels are much higher. Commercial Real Estate is about to implode (or is imploding) in the US and China's false boom is going to get found out. OTOH it's easy to underestimate how long govt/investment banks can keep a bubble inflated, go short to early and you will be squeezed.

Thing to remember is that historically the stock market improves long before everything is rosey again and usually when the major think everything is doom and gloom. DO you expect an announcement to say "we`re officially coming our of recession, the doom is in the past" before buying?

A year ago people were panicking, that is no longer the case, even if things are really not that much different than they were then.

Over recent months I`ve seen some negative date that I thought could reverse the market again but so far so good.

[Scary]

Thing to remember is that historically the stock market improves long before everything is rosey again and usually when the major think everything is doom and gloom. DO you expect an announcement to say "we`re officially coming our of recession, the doom is in the past" before buying?

Er... that's the announcement we are getting "The worst is behind us, we are officially out of the recession" all the while the banks still hold toxic assets, the jobless rate keeps growing and with commercial property problems, deeper and deeper national debt, the Chinese bubble and banks needing to refinance their debts etc. it seems everywhere you look we're teetering on the brink.

[Doggy Styles]

Er... that's the announcement we are getting "The worst is behind us, we are officially out of the recession" all the while the banks still hold toxic assets, the jobless rate keeps growing and with commercial property problems, deeper and deeper national debt, the Chinese bubble and banks needing to refinance their debts etc. it seems everywhere you look we're teetering on the brink.

A good post.

If we are out of recession, what has improved?

As Scary says, the answer is "not a lot", in fact most things are worse. The bare facts are that we cannot continue borrowing at 10% and printing money just to stand still. It's like chopping up the decks and the hull and throwing them into the furnace to keep the ship going.

But if the ship can limp along to the general election it can then sink with all hands as far as Brown cares.

[BrilloPad]

A good post.

If we are out of recession, what has improved?

As Scary says, the answer is "not a lot", in fact most things are worse. The bare facts are that we cannot continue borrowing at 10% and printing money just to stand still. It's like chopping up the decks and the hull and throwing them into the furnace to keep the ship going.

But if the ship can limp along to the general election it can then sink with all hands as far as Brown cares.

If he wins he then has 5 years to turn things around.....