Swineflu deaths almost treble in a week

[Cyberman]

Just on the news now that we have 100,000 cases of swineflu in the UK and 840 people seriously ill with the disease in hospital.

[snaw]

Si mi amigo, mucho licking

Good stuff, keep up the good working in teaching the natives personal hygiene tips.

[sasguru]

So we have a "serious rate" of 0.84%. Miniscule.

I told you you were too stupid to do numbers. Why don't you listen, cretin?

[DimPrawn]

If swine flu mutates with bird flu we're in trouble.

We'll be looking at Pigs Might Fly Flu.

[sasguru]

Looks like he failed the test.

[Andy2]

If swine flu mutates with bird flu we're in trouble.

We'll be looking at Pigs Might Fly Flu.

I will be worried if human flu virus also joins the party

[Churchill]

He is NOT a Billy-No-Mates. He's got his own Chutney Spoon web site.

AND he's in the Urban Dictionary.

So there.

So is Tay!

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Foogling

[BrollyBonce]

To even think about this problem, it is necessary to ignore the number of infections to the size of the population and the proportion of that population that is not infected. It is also necessary to ignore the initial health of the infected people, and the cause of death. There are a great many other assumptions which also negate the validity of this exercise as a means of predicting the future. However...

The death rate was 4 two weeks ago, then 11 last week and now 29. I see a pattern emerging.


4
11
29

then my guestimates at that rate:
next week : 75
the following week: 196
week after that: 509
week after that: 1325
week after that: 3445
week after that: 8958
week after that: 23,292
week after that: 60,559
week after that: 157,455
week after that: 409,384
week after that: 1,064,399

so within three months we could see over a million deaths in Brazil. Normal flu ?

You have some rounding errors. The number series 4, 11, 29 is 18/7x + 5/7. Your final week should be 957,351.

Also, that is deaths per week. Presumably you wanted "total deaths to date". That would have been more impressive. 1,566,566 by the final week, as per above.

Have you determined how many weeks it will take to kill the entire population of the planet?

[cailin maith]

4, 11 ,29 - I think he's remembering Bingo... my gran used to do it... part of the "active retired" group

[RichardCranium]

4, 11 ,29 - I think he's remembering Bingo... my gran used to do it... part of the "active retired" group

Active, retired and "Have you ever seen somebody lick the chutney spoon in an Indian Restaurant and put it back?" flexible!