UK economy will be back in growth by late 2009

[sasguru]

You heard it here first.

[Bagpuss]

no way Jose

[Cyberman]

Joker !!

[DimPrawn]

Who's clearing the government's £2 trn debt for them then?

What about the 3M (official) unemployed by then?

[sasguru]

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying its a good thing.

Never in the history of past recessions has such a stimulus been applied, so no one knows what will happen. Current predictions are based on past behaviour which were dealt with solely by lowering interest rates in high-interest rate environments.

Eventually the quantitative easing will kick in with a wallop.

End result: inflation, another boom in credit and a temporary feel good factor that does nothing to solve the real crisis in the British economy -which is that it doesn't make enough.

I'm emigrating.

[sasguru]

Who's clearing the government's £2 trn debt for them then?

What about the 3M (official) unemployed by then?

There were more than 3M unemployed even in the "boom".

Government strategy is for a dose of inflation to erode debts.

[BrilloPad]

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying its a good thing.

Never in the history of past recessions has such a stimulus been applied, so no one knows what will happen. Current predictions are based on past behaviour which were dealt with solely by lowering interest rates in high-interest rate environments.

Eventually the quantitative easing will kick in with a wallop.

End result: inflation, another boom in credit and a temporary feel good factor that does nothing to solve the real crisis in the British economy -which is that it doesn't make enough.

I'm emigrating.

I agree with all that : but why does it mean we will be growing by late 2009?

[Bagpuss]

Doom will carry on until the run up to the Olympics

IMHO

[Cyberman]

There were more than 3M unemployed even in the "boom".

True, but most of those were by choice with for example 2.7m- 3m people living on incapacity benefits, a million or so students and people between jobs that do not show in the figures, and those with savings that do not claim. Now we have a massive increase in unemployment that is not down to choice, but due to HMG economic incompetence, and total unemployment will be more like 10 million if you include all of the workless.

[Pickle2]

Never in the history of past recessions has such a stimulus been applied, so no one knows what will happen.

Eventually the quantitative easing will kick in with a wallop.

End result: inflation

Sas, look at what happend in Japan after their QE efforts. What makes you think the goverment will get this one right? QE is designed to create inflation, but it will fail. There is no way we will print fast enough to replace all the credit that is being destroyed.

And who wants to borrow in the environment? The new money will just sit hoarded in banks.

Inflation is a red herring. Dont believe the hype.