UK economy will be back in growth by late 2009

[ace00]

I'm emigrating.

Yeh - well don't come here. We're full mate, can't help. Try Scotland, they'll take anyone.

[BrilloPad]

Sas, look at what happend in Japan after their QE efforts. What makes you think the goverment will get this one right? QE is designed to create inflation, but it will fail. There is no way we will print fast enough to replace all the credit that is being destroyed.

And who wants to borrow in the environment? The new money will just sit hoarded in banks.

Inflation is a red herring. Dont believe the hype.

One difference between Japan and the UK is that Japan are a nation of savers. Wheras we are a nation of spenders.

[sasguru]

One difference between Japan and the UK is that Japan are a nation of savers. Wheras we are a nation of spenders.

Indeed, cultural behaviour is often, wrongly, ignored in economic theory.

[sasguru]

I agree with all that : but why does it mean we will be growing by late 2009?

Not growing, probably bumping around at the bottom. And ok maybe 2009 is a bit optimistic.
My point is it will be sooner rather than later.

[Bagpuss]

One difference between Japan and the UK is that Japan are a nation of savers. Wheras we are a nation of spenders.

were

slumps are driven by expections and herd mentality, just as booms are.

Boom= House prices will rise for ever, it's different this time, I'll but a new holiday/car/widescreen etc. with my credit card

Doom= House prices will fall 40%, I might lose my job, I can't afford a new car/holiday etc.

[Green Mango]

In the Labour party conference of 1978. Jim Callahan (PM of the time) said we cannot buy our way out of recession .. well do we ever learn ...

[DocP]

Doom - Peak Oil

The stimulus package will result in hyperinflation. This is when the govt will reduce it's debt by making your money and investments worthless. That's their solution to the debt problem.

World oil production has peaked and supply constraints are responsible for the current financial crash.

1. Oil Prices are rising again
2. There won't be enough oil to support food production
3. Oil for transport will be prohibitive
4. Oil price inflation will push up the price of everything

Cheap oil has allowed us to overpopulate the planet, but not for very much longer.

In the great depression, those in rural areas were not too badly affected as they could grow their own food. However as we have a much larger urban population now it's going to get really nasty.

The last great depression was caused by a loss of confidence. This one is caused by real physical shortages. The depression will not end until these things are brought in to balance.

Happy days indeed.

[BrilloPad]

Not growing, probably bumping around at the bottom. And ok maybe 2009 is a bit optimistic.
My point is it will be sooner rather than later.

9 months is soon? when does soon end?

personally I think Q409 and Q1 10 will be flat : growth in Q2 10 following the next election. but I consider that medium term and obviously alot can happen between now and then

[BrilloPad]

In the Labour party conference of 1978. Jim Callahan (PM of the time) said we cannot buy our way out of recession .. well do we ever learn ...

The man who bought that country to its knees. It took Maggie years to repair the damage.

[BrilloPad]

were

slumps are driven by expections and herd mentality, just as booms are.

Boom= House prices will rise for ever, it's different this time, I'll but a new holiday/car/widescreen etc. with my credit card

Doom= House prices will fall 40%, I might lose my job, I can't afford a new car/holiday etc.

You might think like that : but there are millions of chavs who will disagree. First chance they get they will be spending like it is 2007 again.

Admitedly they wont get a chance this year.....